Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

Given your description of villain, I think the river might be a check. His comment during his KK hand of "I would've had to call you on the river" makes me think that he has a tough time getting away from big hands.

It seems to me like his range includes a non nut flush, nut flush, AQ, KQ, QJ, K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 10, A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J, 44. Of these, it seems like the only hand that calls a push on the river that you beat is possibly A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J and possibly AQ. I guess I'm not really sure whether your play on the river is a bluff or a thin value bet.

Do you think you can get him to lay down a better flush, and do you think you can get him to lay down the nut flush?

Or is my thinking wrong, and the real question that I should be asking is how much can we get AQ or AJ to call on the river?

Help me out here.

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

I play the same if I call pre

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

I bet about 11-1200 on the flop, 2300ish on the turn and prolly 3k on the river... I almost always prefer to keep the pot smaller than you did here

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

I swear I put in a reply here last night, but I'm with Eagles on this I don't see him ever calling with a hand you beat here and he could definitely have a higher flush or even boat now based on description, so I think you need to check behind.

If we're deeper, bet/fold.

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

Given what we know about Scott, his calls on the flop and turn mean he had either trips of flush. If he had trips, he just turned ahead on the river, and even if he has a flush, and even if he could call with raggs like 2-3s, you're behind (as there are 4 spades above your 8 and four below, so the median hand would be 9 or T high). This said, we can probably discard the ace-high, as he would have bet it. King high maybe too ...
Anyway, the only "likely" hands you beat are 6-4 and 6-7 of spades. So the question is whether you can bluff him or not, not whether you will value bet.
I would tend to think he has rather flush than trips, so maybe you can make him fold most flushes by bluffing all-in on the river ... I guess this was the meaning of your bet ? And what did he do ? Did he fold and show a T-high flush ? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I hope I don't have everything wrong ... looking forward to know the end of the story [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

not sure i like it, against described villain, im not sure he ever calls with a worst hand except like AsJ or something, i think i bet/fold small.

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
not sure i like it, against described villain, im not sure he ever calls with a worst hand except like AsJ or something, i think i bet/fold small.

[/ QUOTE ]

This might actually be better than just checking since we know we're beat since he can't run an elaborate bluff here.

I just hate shoving because 99.999% of the time you're ahead you take it down without showdown (does have value IMO) and 100% of the time you're beat you get stacked, so I mean, I think shoving is hugely -EV

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

preflop seems really miserable imo and really is the most glaring part of the hand. i think bond does this too much whenever i read his live reports.

by all means continue if you have a hold of the table and are playing really well (eg a good version of Mohammed Kowssarie), but otherwise it just serves as overly loose passive and not really suitable given the game conditions.

and to elaborate, when it feels like the optimal line against these players is Jared's suggestion imo (bet small all three streets), then preflop cant possibly be optimal when its guaranteed to be that multiway

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

All,

I'm pretty open minded about whether pre flop is good/bad, but i really can promise at least two players in this hand were abysmal stations.

Some other factors to think about:

Live players are obsessed with protecting their hand. I think if he has a set he almost always bets the flop since i'm not PFR and has no reason to think i'll bet for him. I also think if he has a flush that's not the nuts he's pretty damn likely to either bet flop, check raise flop, or check raise turn.

Conversely, live players are obsessed with the slow play. If he has the nuts he very well may check it all three streets, and he might perceive K high flush as basically the nuts.

I think it's quite possible he check called two streets with QJ. I also think it's quite possible he flat called KK with Ks pre flop and check called two streets.

Sass also brought up the fact that the J hitting river isn't always a bad thing, since he may show up with KsJ or AsJ. Obviously though, it's not our favorite card.

There's been some good discussion here from a number of players i respect, and i'm still pretty undecided.

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

I don't think preflop is that bad I would rarely fold 86s and never fold 78s.
Do you think he three bets QQ/JJ pre? Do you think he calls QJ pre? I think if he had a better flush you think he would riase somewhere and with a set or qj you think he would bet the flop. I think we are good too often here and people suck enough to shove here. Seems decent over a small enough smaple isn't a good enough reason to think he won't call the river with AQ or KQ or something.