NPL 2.5k @ Venetian, TV Table / Money bubble w/ TT
 

hand previous to this toto leonides opens for 3k and i shove 24k and take it down

6 handed, paying 5 spots coming back for tv table tommorow

500-1k 100 ante

Allen Kesseler(60k)
Toto Leonides(50k)
Asian Dude(20k)
Me(30k)
Unknown SB(30k)
Good BB(45k)

kessler folds
toto opens 3k again and has been opening a lot of pots and playing lots of hands since we got 9 handed
fold to me OTB w/ TT

Options are:

call to take a flop or induce a squeeze
3 bet and call a shove
3 bet and fold to a shove
i go all in

rank these 1-4 with some reasoning

Re: NPL 2.5k @ Venetian, TV Table / Money bubble w/ TT
 

1) 3 bet and call a shove- 6 handed with 30bbs against na aggressive player, i think this is the best option, hes 4 bets 99 right?
2/3) close between calling and shoving, i think calling is better
4) 3 bet folding makes me cry.

Re: NPL 2.5k @ Venetian, TV Table / Money bubble w/ TT
 

1) 3bet/call
2)shove
3)call



4)minraise








3bet/fold

Re: NPL 2.5k @ Venetian, TV Table / Money bubble w/ TT
 

[ QUOTE ]
1) 3 bet and call a shove- 6 handed with 30bbs against na aggressive player, i think this is the best option, hes 4 bets 99 right?
2/3) close between calling and shoving, i think calling is better
4) 3 bet folding makes me cry.

[/ QUOTE ]

2 could be bumped up and replace 1 IFF (if and only if for Shaun) we have a significant enough read that blinds will squeeze. I know you gave the reads you did, but I need something more than that to think they're squeezing here often enough, and it also matters a ton because of what their perceived calling range for YOU is. Given your reads we have NO clue of that, so...

Re: NPL 2.5k @ Venetian, TV Table / Money bubble w/ TT
 

What's your image? I think it's pretty key here. If you've been active, Toto will prob assume you're a crazy internet kid. If not, he'll probably think the bubble's important to you and have a muuuch tighter 4 bet range.

If active, rr to 8400 snap call shove. If not active, rr to 8400 and snap fold IMHO.

Re: NPL 2.5k @ Venetian, TV Table / Money bubble w/ TT
 

devo if you planning on 3betfolding why waste 10s on it just flat and play postflop I am calling most flops vs him anyway

I like calling and lots of calling postflop.

Re: NPL 2.5k @ Venetian, TV Table / Money bubble w/ TT
 

pretty stnd shove imo... every other option is quite a bit worse imo w/ past history/opponent etc.

Re: NPL 2.5k @ Venetian, TV Table / Money bubble w/ TT
 

I like flat here the most. Normally I'd prefer rr/call against a very aggro player who will 4bet lighter than most but you saying you shoved over his open the hand right before this changes my line for this hand. Very Very few people are capable of making a rr as a play/bluff two times in a row, and as "crazy" as Toto might be he's gonna know this. I bet when you looked down at your cards you were hoping to have 72o so you could just catch your breath from the prev. hand and finish stacking your chips etc. Obv when you look down at TT, you realize you have no choice but to get involved again. The idea is that Toto will know you are never 3betting light here, and thus should play perfectly against you, shoving with hands that beat you, folding with hand that don't. It's still not a bad option to rr/call I guess, because he's going to be folding most of the time, just not as good as flat imo.

1. call to take a flop or induce a squeeze
2. 3b/call a shove
3. Shove
4. 3/b fold to shove

Re: NPL 2.5k @ Venetian, TV Table / Money bubble w/ TT
 

AGame i'm pretty sure you are in the minority with that mindset. If I were in OP's spot and looked down at TT, I'd be ecstatic and ready to double up.

Re: NPL 2.5k @ Venetian, TV Table / Money bubble w/ TT
 

lol @ prefering to look down at 72o to TT on the bubble of a donkament

how is 3bet fold even an option? i don't get it. i would 3bet-call, but shoving is just as goot, and everything else is significantly worse imo

Re: NPL 2.5k @ Venetian, TV Table / Money bubble w/ TT
 

[ QUOTE ]
AGame i'm pretty sure you are in the minority with that mindset. If I were in OP's spot and looked down at TT, I'd be ecstatic and ready to double up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok obviously being dealt TT is better than being dealt 72 that was me exaggerating the point that people tend to fold somewhat playable hands after they win big pots to kinda "catch their breath." I know even I am guilty of folding hands I would've otherwise opened with had I not played the hand directly before, and it's not even like it's a bad thing. It all just boils down to the fact that reraising for a 2nd time in a row is like never a bluff which is why I prefer flatting. But as I said, rr/call is ok too, I just don't think it's optimal.

Re: NPL 2.5k @ Venetian, TV Table / Money bubble w/ TT
 

1. call to take a flop or induce a squeeze

2. all in
3. 3 bet and call a shove









4. 3 bet and fold to a shove


I think you play well postflop, so I like calling and playing some pokahs.

Re: NPL 2.5k @ Venetian, TV Table / Money bubble w/ TT
 

if you think theres a big chance someone will squeeze with a junky hand and you are comfortable calling that, just calling is fine, otherwise just push yourself.

Re: NPL 2.5k @ Venetian, TV Table / Money bubble w/ TT
 

I think the chance of a light squeeze is very very marginal and if they do they may even 3bet fold squeeze as bad as we know it is on the tv/money bubble I see them being way too tight.

Re: NPL 2.5k @ Venetian, TV Table / Money bubble w/ TT
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think the chance of a light squeeze is very very marginal and if they do they may even 3bet fold squeeze as bad as we know it is on the tv/money bubble I see them being way too tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree/toto probably isn't calling a shove with worse and I hate 3 betting 1/3 of my stack and then figuring out what to do on a KJx flop, so I call etc.

Re: NPL 2.5k @ Venetian, TV Table / Money bubble w/ TT
 

serge the more I think about him he may even fold AK/JJ to a shove from jon in this spot and jon told me he was playing like 60/40 and getting laggier on this bubble. So basically this could become a +EV shove not for relative strength but just how much they fold as well as those behind us only calling with QQ+ or even KK+ fearing they are either fliping or behind with QQ.

Re: NPL 2.5k @ Venetian, TV Table / Money bubble w/ TT
 

Toto is not known for making big, or even medium, or even small laydowns. I would shove here. I don't think there's a chance in hell he would fold 99 or 88 or AJ+ here. 3bet/calling will probably get you to the same spot.

Re: NPL 2.5k @ Venetian, TV Table / Money bubble w/ TT
 

On the TV bubble Toto is opening prob pretty close to ATC here so I might value call. Either that or 3bet t8.5k and snap call a shove.

Re: NPL 2.5k @ Venetian, TV Table / Money bubble w/ TT
 

[ QUOTE ]
Toto is not known for making big, or even medium, or even small laydowns. I would shove here. I don't think there's a chance in hell he would fold 99 or 88 or AJ+ here. 3bet/calling will probably get you to the same spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

during level 2(50-100) i played a hand with toto, folded to bad button who limps, toto completes SB and i make it 425 in the BB w/ 99, button calls, toto makes it 1500, i tank and shove 6k and both players snap fold

i also had a hand where i raised toto's BB at the final table, bet a 2 tone flop and gave up when the flush draw hit on the turn

i'm pretty sure my image is solid internet player but not too loose/out of line

Re: NPL 2.5k @ Venetian, TV Table / Money bubble w/ TT
 

Btw I think shoving is a lot better than 3 bet/calling on the bubble. Note that I don't know the prizes but why go out of our way to encourage action in TT in a spot where we really don't want action?

Re: NPL 2.5k @ Venetian, TV Table / Money bubble w/ TT
 

[ QUOTE ]
serge the more I think about him he may even fold AK/JJ to a shove from jon in this spot and jon told me he was playing like 60/40 and getting laggier on this bubble. So basically this could become a +EV shove not for relative strength but just how much they fold as well as those behind us only calling with QQ+ or even KK+ fearing they are either fliping or behind with QQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

well if he folds AK/JJ it's definitely a snap shove...

Re: NPL 2.5k @ Venetian, TV Table / Money bubble w/ TT
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
serge the more I think about him he may even fold AK/JJ to a shove from jon in this spot and jon told me he was playing like 60/40 and getting laggier on this bubble. So basically this could become a +EV shove not for relative strength but just how much they fold as well as those behind us only calling with QQ+ or even KK+ fearing they are either fliping or behind with QQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

well if he folds AK/JJ it's definitely a snap shove...

[/ QUOTE ]


Uhhh he's not?

Re: NPL 2.5k @ Venetian, TV Table / Money bubble w/ TT
 

AIPF

Looks like AK

Get called by 88

Profit

Re: NPL 2.5k @ Venetian, TV Table / Money bubble w/ TT
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
serge the more I think about him he may even fold AK/JJ to a shove from jon in this spot and jon told me he was playing like 60/40 and getting laggier on this bubble. So basically this could become a +EV shove not for relative strength but just how much they fold as well as those behind us only calling with QQ+ or even KK+ fearing they are either fliping or behind with QQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

well if he folds AK/JJ it's definitely a snap shove...

[/ QUOTE ]


Uhhh he's not?

[/ QUOTE ]

i just 3 bet shoved him last hand, he might fold JJ, but not AK

Re: NPL 2.5k @ Venetian, TV Table / Money bubble w/ TT
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
well if he folds AK/JJ it's definitely a snap shove...

[/ QUOTE ]


Uhhh he's not?

[/ QUOTE ]

i just 3 bet shoved him last hand, he might fold JJ, but not AK

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno, if I'm him (I'm not) there's no F-ing way I'm folding JJ to a shove here.

Would any of you? That's a little ridiculous IMO

Re: NPL 2.5k @ Venetian, TV Table / Money bubble w/ TT
 

Shoving > 3-betting > calling > folding.

Re: NPL 2.5k @ Venetian, TV Table / Money bubble w/ TT
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
well if he folds AK/JJ it's definitely a snap shove...

[/ QUOTE ]


Uhhh he's not?

[/ QUOTE ]

i just 3 bet shoved him last hand, he might fold JJ, but not AK

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno, if I'm him (I'm not) there's no F-ing way I'm folding JJ to a shove here.

Would any of you? That's a little ridiculous IMO

[/ QUOTE ]

I never would but I'm not a live pro who waits for better spots etc. so the statement in itself isn't totally outrageous.

all I mean is, if shoving lets him play exactly perfectly I think calling is better/if he folds so much as 1 better hand I think shoving is plainly the best option because he'll never have enough combos of the nuts to make anything else work.

Re: NPL 2.5k @ Venetian, TV Table / Money bubble w/ TT
 

given the 99 hand from the sb where he completed and then reraised hero's bb raise, isn't three betting to like 9.5k (giving him room to shove his ATC) and snap calling his shove significantly better than outright shoving?

Re: NPL 2.5k @ Venetian, TV Table / Money bubble w/ TT
 

I just shove, I think it gets less respect here given history and avoids stupid flop scenarios. edit: he doesn't understand restealing theory probably and just sees this as another all-in from the crazy internet kid, even though for 30xBB you obv have a hand

RESULTS
 

i shoved, BB woke up with KK gg

I hated shoving on the ride home but i'm ok with it now, i do think there is a lot of merit to flatting but maybe not against toto who honestly plays very well postflop

Re: NPL 2.5k @ Venetian, TV Table / Money bubble w/ TT
 

i don't understand why 3-betting to 9k and then folding to a push is so bad. the only hand toto pushes that we aren't behind, is AK, plus the rare occasion when he makes a move with 98s or AJ or something. also if you can't get any read on toto when he pushes as to whether he has AA-KK or AK or 98s, then good for toto, and bad for you.

i read somewhere on this forum just the other day how someone "ran the numbers" and said it was barely okay to 3-bet AQ for 1/3rd your stack and fold to re-raise.

pushing allin-in with TT here, you trap yourself if someone has a monster. i like to think i play good enough where i'm trying to avoid traps when i have a viable stack.

Re: NPL 2.5k @ Venetian, TV Table / Money bubble w/ TT
 

Why is everyone guessing. We don't even know the exact prize structure? Almost every single response didn't do any math at all when in reality this is almost purely a math problem. It's 100% certainty that pushing allin is +CeV (I've already done the math on this, it isn't even close against his likely opening range), we just have to determine whether it's more +EV than calling or do some kind of ICM calculations to determine whether pushing is correct against UTG's raising range.

Anyway I don't know the exact prize structure so I didn't even bother trying. The more top heavy it is, the better pushing will be. The flatter it is, the worse pushing will be.

Re: NPL 2.5k @ Venetian, TV Table / Money bubble w/ TT
 

[ QUOTE ]
The more top heavy it is, the better pushing will be. The flatter it is, the worse pushing will be.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think if its top-heavy I like calling more then shoving.

Re: NPL 2.5k @ Venetian, TV Table / Money bubble w/ TT
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The more top heavy it is, the better pushing will be. The flatter it is, the worse pushing will be.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think if its top-heavy I like calling more then shoving.

[/ QUOTE ]

All Im saying is that risking your tournament life is worse when it's important not to bubble. Shoving risks it, calling doesn't.

To clarify, our chances of getting eliminated from the tournament on this specific hand, are almost always greater if we move allin as opposed to call. If it's important to hang around to get 5th place due to prize structure considerations, then this is something that should be taken into account. If it's less important to finish 5th place because all of the money is at the top, then this is less important to consider.

Re: NPL 2.5k @ Venetian, TV Table / Money bubble w/ TT
 

awrin

Re: NPL 2.5k @ Venetian, TV Table / Money bubble w/ TT
 

40%,25%,15%,12%,8%

From memory could be off a few % in 3rd/4th

Re: NPL 2.5k @ Venetian, TV Table / Money bubble w/ TT
 

So it does seem important to make the money, as there is an 8% difference between 6th and 5th. Meanwhile there is less than an 8% difference between 3rd and 5th. The difference between 6th and 5th is more than half the difference between 1st+2nd and almost the same as the difference between 2nd+3rd. So basically it seems pretty significant to not come in 6th.

Re: NPL 2.5k @ Venetian, TV Table / Money bubble w/ TT
 

btw this is all very important because if the prize structure were 40-25-15-10-5 then everything is much different, as the difference between 6th+5th is same as 4th+5th etc etc, so coming in 5th is a much smaller concern. The may be close enough so that whether 5th place is 10%, 8% or 5% of the prize pool will make some kind of strategical difference.