It Feels So Dirty To Want To Fold KK Preflop
 

Villain is 15/12/3 thru 1200 hands. I'm running 19/18 thru 100 hands at this table. Villain prob. has me around 20/16 overall I would guess. We got it aipf when we both had AKs much earlier in the session, but it was my CO open vs. his BB 3bet and my 4bet, so obv. a little different.



Poker Stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BB: $393.55
UTG: $235.10
MP: $99.55
CO: $362.95
BTN: $39.55
Hero (SB): $207.10

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $8</font>, MP folds, CO calls $8, BTN folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $36</font>, BB folds, <font color="red">UTG raises to $86</font>, CO folds,


I know many, many of you are going to say, SHOVE, lol, wtf, we have a king and another king, go all in. And, OMG it looks like you're squeezing. I don't think anyone has reasonable proof of 15/12's 4betting light from utg 5 handed in any situation. Let me give some math here.

We need at least 40% avg. equity against his range to make shoving profitable assuming he's obv. never folding.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.293% 43.79% 03.51% 67479612 5402286.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 52.707% 49.20% 03.51% 75823176 5402286.00 { KK+, AKs, AKo }


Using an unweighted range here, we only have 47% equity which includes a 3.5% tie. If you weight his range AT ALL, I think a very strong argument can be made for folding this.

Re: It Feels So Dirty To Want To Fold KK Preflop
 

el oh el

Re: It Feels So Dirty To Want To Fold KK Preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]

SHOVE, lol, wtf, we have a king and another king, go all in. And, OMG it looks like you're squeezing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: It Feels So Dirty To Want To Fold KK Preflop
 

I feel like you shoved and he had QQ or something.

Re: It Feels So Dirty To Want To Fold KK Preflop
 

if he's 4betting AK, he can 4bet QQ... its a squeeze situation...

good ssnl needed this thread tonight

Re: It Feels So Dirty To Want To Fold KK Preflop
 

I see where you're going, but if he knows you're willing to get it in pf with AK then can't he 4-bet/call QQ?

Re: It Feels So Dirty To Want To Fold KK Preflop
 

Here's a weighted range which includes 1/2 the AK combos and 1/3 of the QQ combos.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.663% 41.71% 03.95% 9284668 879812.00 { KcKs }
Hand 1: 54.337% 50.38% 03.95% 11215660 879812.00 { AA, KdKh, QcQd, QcQh, AdKd, AhKh, AcKd, AcKh }

Re: It Feels So Dirty To Want To Fold KK Preflop
 

your ahead and theres money already in the pot ?

Re: It Feels So Dirty To Want To Fold KK Preflop
 

I certainly can't argue that this isn't likely to be slightly +EV in general to shove. That's not the point I'm trying to make with this thread.

I'm trying to show 2 things.
1. It's possible that shoving is slightly -EV depending on how you weight his range.
2. It's VERY marginal even if it is "always" +ev.

Re: It Feels So Dirty To Want To Fold KK Preflop
 

wow! no one has thought of this before... there isn't thread after thread debunking what you are saying in the archives... people aren't taking you seriously because they can't think of the refutation, not that its been done over and over and over again.