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-   -   To cap or not to cap. (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=555843)

fretelöo 11-28-2007 08:01 AM

Re: To cap or not to cap.
 
Well, first of all it indeed doesn't matter all that much. However, pot is now 7BB (correct?). So if he just folds 14% that bet is fine. Second, if he calls, we still have decent equity, same goes if he raises.
Third, just for the off-chance that he's drawing too, I'm keeping the lead because in those cases, my bluff beats his bluff.

Or in short: Given our hand/draw, a raise (worst case) doesn't really hurt us all that much, while a bet has some potential benefits to it.
What I think is a lot more interesting is whether to cap the flop if we know that villain will bet any turn for us if we just call is really worth it. If UTG is indeed calling the cap we're making 2/6 or so of a SB from that cap in immediate expectation, right? If UTG is folding, we're contributing 50% for our ~50% equity...

LukeSLTS 11-28-2007 09:33 AM

Re: To cap or not to cap.
 
I would probably just call the flop 3bet OOP. Then c/c the turn. and c/f the river.

rhayder 11-28-2007 10:22 AM

Re: To cap or not to cap.
 
Call and see the turn and hope you hit and they are aggressive

Mitke 11-28-2007 10:55 AM

Re: To cap or not to cap.
 
[ QUOTE ]
Well, first of all it indeed doesn't matter all that much. However, pot is now 7BB (correct?). So if he just folds 14% that bet is fine. Second, if he calls, we still have decent equity, same goes if he raises.
Third, just for the off-chance that he's drawing too, I'm keeping the lead because in those cases, my bluff beats his bluff.

Or in short: Given our hand/draw, a raise (worst case) doesn't really hurt us all that much, while a bet has some potential benefits to it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, these are all perfectly valid reasons to lead the turn. I'm still not convinced it's a better option than c/c turn. Like you point out, I don't think betting out is a particularly costly option either.

To see which one would be the better option we'd have to guesstimate how often villain folds his hand either on the turn or river (if we 3-barrel) or we c/c the river to induce him to bluff the river with a worse draw and he actually has a draw, and how much action he gives if he was on a draw and we both hit.

I'm with Ozi in estimating our fold equity to be minuscule on the turn and that the possibility of a raise (which would cost us ~0.75BB more to draw) to be high enough to offset the potential benefit of a fold or beating his bluff with out own.

These possibilities are matters of opinion so not much point arguing them further, IMHO (and that's a long argument doing just that, I know.. ).


[ QUOTE ]
What I think is a lot more interesting is whether to cap the flop if we know that villain will bet any turn for us if we just call is really worth it. If UTG is indeed calling the cap we're making 2/6 or so of a SB from that cap in immediate expectation, right? If UTG is folding, we're contributing 50% for our ~50% equity...

[/ QUOTE ]

Harv and Aaron & Co discussed this a bit earlier in the thread.

I really can't tell personally. I do however think that capping the flop disguises our hand better for the turn than a call, which also can work in favor of our implied odds.

Dankenstein 11-28-2007 09:09 PM

Re: To cap or not to cap.
 
Thanks for the responses.

I didn't even think the turn lead would spark so much debate. I felt like the turn lead out was almost standard there after capping the flop.In this size of a pot, I don't think a raise hurts me much, and I wanted to continue building the pot for my draw.
My main goal in posting the rest of the hand was that I wanted to see if you think check/calling or bet/folding this river is a good move or not. I personally feel that the pot is big enough that we should use this line. My thought process behind this is that our opponent is on some sort of draw enough of the time that this pot cannot be folded here even with K high.
Do you agree or disagree ?

Mitke 11-29-2007 02:20 AM

Re: To cap or not to cap.
 
[ QUOTE ]
My main goal in posting the rest of the hand was that I wanted to see if you think check/calling or bet/folding this river is a good move or not. I personally feel that the pot is big enough that we should use this line. My thought process behind this is that our opponent is on some sort of draw enough of the time that this pot cannot be folded here even with K high.
Do you agree or disagree ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, just some thoughts, you are basically rooting that he has either a FD, QT, or a small pair he'd fold to a bet.

As he is quite aggressive (for a guy that loose preflop), I'm pretty sure he'll bet if you check anything he holds.

I think b/f would be the line to take if you want to spend that 1BB. It at least could get him to fold some made hands once in a blue moon. And you have a pretty easy fold to a raise I think with K-high. Draws you'd beat anyway by c/c this.

However, as I've been discussing about the turn I'm not at all thinking that the Villain has a draw here. But then again, that's open to debate.


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