Swings in NLCASH
 

Can anyone with experience comment on swings/variance in headsup cash games? I'm a sixmax player and have 5-7 buyin downswings with the occasional 10-12 buyin downer. How much 'worse' can I expect it to be in headsup? Thanks for any advice...

Re: Swings in NLCASH
 

Really depends on your style and your stakes.

I think if the stakes are reasonably low and your style isn't too aggressive/bluffy most of your downswings will be in the neighborhood of 5-10 BIs.

Re: Swings in NLCASH
 

Ok, yeah, I should have given a little more info. I'm playing .50/1 and 1/2, pretty snug, not a whole lot of bluffing.

Re: Swings in NLCASH
 

I'm interested in this too.

Re: Swings in NLCASH
 

I'm not great but i'm a winner at .5/1 and have had an 18bi downswing already..it really just depends on how you control tilt and stuff and if you have and can stick to a stop/loss...also how well you game select...but i dont think 20 bi downswings are impossible for even decent players. But day to day variance, you shouldnt let losing 5 or 6 buy ins affect you cos that will become sooo standard

Re: Swings in NLCASH
 

I've played around 25k hands of mostly 0.5/1 and a little of .25/.5 and 1/2 and I would say that if you play solid and table-select good swings of more than 7-8 BuyIns should be pretty uncommon

Re: Swings in NLCASH
 

5/10 player here. I'm something close to 50/35. One sec, I'll grab my October graph.

Re: Swings in NLCASH
 

Re: Swings in NLCASH
 

by 'swings' you mean swongs right?

Re: Swings in NLCASH
 

According to my simulations even a 50 buy-in downswing is possible with a stable winrate of 8 PTBB/100 (no tilting/other psychological defects allowed) although it'll be extremely rare. That is for a player whose standard deviation per 100 hands is about 75PTBB/100. 20BI downswings seem to be quite common.

I have been researching variance in heads up poker lately and I'll probably share my simulator with you once it is easier to use.