Big draw on the bubble - play it strong or play it safe?
 

Small stakes SnG...I'm on the bubble. As you can see, pretty good flop for me, but not a made hand yet. Could have up to 18 outs, but an estimate of 13-15 seems more reasonable to me. How would you play this? Play it safe on the bubble and check, hoping for a free card? Check-raise if I check and my opponent bets? Just check-call and try to hit on the turn? Bet out on the semi-bluff? If you bet out and get pushed all-in, do you call?

I can see a wide variety of moves all being plausible here and others I've talked to disagree about the best way to play this. What do you think? Oh, my opponent seems pretty loose and has put a lot of chips on the line in questionable situations. And he's the big stack, so might be hard to bluff. Anyways, what do you think? HH is below...

Full Tilt Poker Game #3921768217: $5 + $0.50 Sit & Go (29839733), Table 1 - 100/200 - No Limit Hold'em - 10:40:41 ET - 2007/10/21
Seat 4: ThePhoenix78 (1,995)
Seat 6: rbarros (1,495)
Seat 8: eddiepaul2424 (7,005)
Seat 9: kbskom (3,005)
kbskom posts the small blind of 100
ThePhoenix78 posts the big blind of 200
The button is in seat #8
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ThePhoenix78 [Td 3d]
rbarros folds
eddiepaul2424 calls 200
kbskom folds
ThePhoenix78 has 15 seconds left to act
ThePhoenix78 checks
*** FLOP *** [6d 4c 2d]
ThePhoenix78 has 15 seconds left to act
ThePhoenix78 ???

Re: Big draw on the bubble - play it strong or play it safe?
 

check and hope he makes it cheap for you, crai is what id probably do vs most guys but against a guy like this i wouldnt like it as much. betting and getting called and seeing a blank turn just puts you in an awful spot so i think i check here almost always.

Re: Big draw on the bubble - play it strong or play it safe?
 

Would love to get more thoughts on this hand. Seems like a relatively unique spot. On the bubble, with what might be the best hand if we see all 5 cards, but could be behind on the flop. Drawing hands that are statistical favorites open up many options for play, and the trickiness of figuring out the best play seems compounded by the fact that we're on the bubble. So I'd love to spark some discussion on what you think the best play is here. Thanks!

Re: Big draw on the bubble - play it strong or play it safe?
 

I just CRAI here... check/call doesn't give you a chance to win the pot without hitting.

Re: Big draw on the bubble - play it strong or play it safe?
 

[ QUOTE ]
check and hope he makes it cheap for you, crai is what id probably do vs most guys but against a guy like this i wouldnt like it as much. betting and getting called and seeing a blank turn just puts you in an awful spot so i think i check here almost always.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Big draw on the bubble - play it strong or play it safe?
 

you have so much pot equity here and the reality is he prob. didnt hit, and when you check to him with your read his betting frequency is going to be through the roof. you create huge FE by c/r AI and when called youre so rarely ever worse than in a coinflip situation, and often a reasonable favorite vs particularly bad players. Seems like a reasonable line to me. I don't like c/cing or folding, and id rather let him be the first to put money in the pot in this spot and juice it up a little. I'm willing to entertain arguments for bet/calling I guess...

Re: Big draw on the bubble - play it strong or play it safe?
 

certainly crai

Re: Big draw on the bubble - play it strong or play it safe?
 

What range do you put him on?
Its difficult but a few situations:

Hand: Ur equity
6c6s: 32%
AcAs: 46%
KdQh: 56%
8d8h: 51%
Qh9h: 62%

Its not as good as it may have seemed in the first place (or my calculations are off) I'm not sure but would probably CRAI anyway cause we play for first right and you aint gonna get more outs anytime soon.

Re: Big draw on the bubble - play it strong or play it safe?
 

Actually, in SnGs, optimal strategy isn't to gun for first. It's to ensure we finish in the money. I did CRAI and I definitely think that was the best way to play it. The only thing that makes me a bit hesitant about the play is the fact that it's the bubble and I'm not sure I want to risk all of my chips in a race or as only a slight favorite. But given the fold equity as well by CRAIing, I probably win this pot with that play more often than losing the pot. Some of those hands you put up don't make much sense, given the preflop action. Most people will raise 66, AA, KQ, and 88 on the button 4-handed, especially if they are the big stack. Although someone could conceivably limp with AA as a sneaky slow play.

Re: Big draw on the bubble - play it strong or play it safe?
 

Optimal strategy is to gun for most $ev, not finishing itm.