Would you put your life on the line?
 

Walking back, mildly drunk, a friend and I got into a discussion about a hypothetical scenario, where both of us had very different views. It's not really relevant who thought what, but one of us said a definite yes to the scenario and the other said no.

Here's the scenario:

There's a guy pointing a gun at your head. He has a suitcase with $10m in it. He offers you to pick a number from 1 to 50. You then have to write it down. He then has one attempt at guessing that number. If he guesses right, he pulls the trigger. If not, he hands you a suitcase with $10m and you walk away unscathed.

You do not have to pick a number. You can leave immediately instead.

Do you gamble with your life?

If yes, at what point would your answer become a no (i.e. pick a number from 1-40, or 1-25, or 1-10.

If no, at what point would you take the gamble? (1-100, 1-1,000, etc)

Re: Would you put your life on the line?
 

wow dude this is like so deep and stuff

Re: Would you put your life on the line?
 

You're both idiots because I'm wearing a bulletproof helmet and always get the moniez!

Re: Would you put your life on the line?
 

So, 49 times you win 10M, and 1 time you lose life.

0 = 49(10M) + 1(-X)

X = $490,000,000.

If you value your life at more than $490M, it's a -EV gamble. Personally, I thought for a while if I value my life at more than 490M$. Furthermore I think the varience in this game is too high for me to be comfortable, even if I value my life at less than that, and I walk away.

Same situation, with 5000 #s, and 100K in suitcase, is less varience but still not good enough for me IMO. So I guess I value my life higher than that. If you make the #s 10x (i.e. make required value life to breakeven around $5B) I might reconsider).

Re: Would you put your life on the line?
 

I'd take 1 in 10 probably.

Re: Would you put your life on the line?
 

lol, it's really hard to say without actually having this happen, as I don't know if my answer would be the same with the gun to my head.

I think I'd probably go with 1 in 10 as well. I'd be pretty comfortable with 1-20, and very with 1 in 50.

Re: Would you put your life on the line?
 

Don't we do this thread once a month?

Re: Would you put your life on the line?
 

ill flip a coin for 10mill, im so degen [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Also look at it this way, now you will die one out of 50 times. basicly the possibility is pretty real that you will die. BUT according to this site,
http://www.funny2.com/odds.htm
the odds of dying in a car accident the next year is 1 in 77 times. So if you take those odds, its either not driving your car the next year or taking 1 million $, so then it would be an easy choice!

Re: Would you put your life on the line?
 

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Don't we do this thread once a month?

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it's only the 4th of november

Re: Would you put your life on the line?
 

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BUT according to this site,
http://www.funny2.com/odds.htm
the odds of dying in a car accident the next year is 77 to 1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, thats [censored]. 1 out of every 78 drivers does not die every year.

Re: Would you put your life on the line?
 

Is the guy with the gun Max Maven?

Re: Would you put your life on the line?
 

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BUT according to this site,
http://www.funny2.com/odds.htm
the odds of dying in a car accident the next year is 77 to 1.

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Yeah, thats [censored]. 1 out of every 78 drivers does not die every year.

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Oh, and thats "transportation accident". A car accident it claims is:

[ QUOTE ]
Chance of dying from a car accident: 1 in 18,585

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I suspect the 1 in 77 is mislabeled. I bet its, if you die next year, theres a 1 in 77 chance it was from a transportation accident.

Re: Would you put your life on the line?
 

Ah well then you get good odds if you do it 1-18585 and not driving a car for the next year.

Re: Would you put your life on the line?
 

Serious answer to an absurd question: I turn down all amounts at all odds.

I'm not placing a monetary value on my life. I wouldn't bet my [censored] little toe against your $10 million.

Re: Would you put your life on the line?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Serious answer to an absurd question: I turn down all amounts at all odds.

I'm not placing a monetary value on my life. I wouldn't bet my [censored] little toe against your $10 million.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

You value your little toe @ more than $490M? I mean, seriously, if someone came up to you tommorow and said "$490 mil for yer lil toe, how 'bout it?" you'd say no??

Re: Would you put your life on the line?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Serious answer to an absurd question: I turn down all amounts at all odds.

I'm not placing a monetary value on my life. I wouldn't bet my [censored] little toe against your $10 million.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

You value your little toe @ more than $490M? I mean, seriously, if someone came up to you tommorow and said "$490 mil for yer lil toe, how 'bout it?" you'd say no??

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id say yes, and give him my other little toe too as a tip. And it looks my symmetrical if you miss both.

Re: Would you put your life on the line?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Serious answer to an absurd question: I turn down all amounts at all odds.

I'm not placing a monetary value on my life. I wouldn't bet my [censored] little toe against your $10 million.

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't true. Every action you take has an implicit risk. Easiest to see are activities like crossing the road, driving, flying on a plane, etc. Each of those actions you do because the risk to you is smaller then the utility you get out of doing the action.

Re: Would you put your life on the line?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Serious answer to an absurd question: I turn down all amounts at all odds.

I'm not placing a monetary value on my life. I wouldn't bet my [censored] little toe against your $10 million.

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't true. Every action you take has an implicit risk. Easiest to see are activities like crossing the road, driving, flying on a plane, etc. Each of those actions you do because the risk to you is smaller then the utility you get out of doing the action.

[/ QUOTE ]..

I forgot where I was responding.

No, I will not sell you my little toe for $490 million. Nor do I think crossing the street represents a calculated risk.

Being alive carries with it its own risk of death - that's just how it is. But I'm not placing monetary values on any of that. And I'm not going to essentially sell a piece of my body for supposed financial gain.

You feel different? Fine. But I'm not going to try and work out what my physical body is worth, and then try and get good value for chunks of it.

Re: Would you put your life on the line?
 

I pick 27 fwiw

Re: Would you put your life on the line?
 

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I'd take 1 in 10 probably.

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Re: Would you put your life on the line?
 

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I'd take 1 in 10 probably.

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me too.

i've been fairly bored with life lately anyway...

maybe 10's too small...25 for sure.

i'd do 1-25 for just a million, and if it was in cash, and there really was say, $200,000 in fifty dollar bills in a case, and i positively could leave with it if he missed, i'd pick 1-25 in a second.

i'm actually sitting here kicking the numbers around...

1-25 i'd do for 100,000...any takers?

Re: Would you put your life on the line?
 

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I'm not placing a monetary value on my life. I wouldn't bet my [censored] little toe against your $10 million.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's not fair.

http://bmwmoto.free.fr/lebowski/3_nihilists_large.jpg

Re: Would you put your life on the line?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Serious answer to an absurd question: I turn down all amounts at all odds.

I'm not placing a monetary value on my life. I wouldn't bet my [censored] little toe against your $10 million.

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't true. Every action you take has an implicit risk. Easiest to see are activities like crossing the road, driving, flying on a plane, etc. Each of those actions you do because the risk to you is smaller then the utility you get out of doing the action.

[/ QUOTE ]..

Nor do I think crossing the street represents a calculated risk.

Being alive carries with it its own risk of death - that's just how it is. But I'm not placing monetary values on any of that. And I'm not going to essentially sell a piece of my body for supposed financial gain.


[/ QUOTE ]

Driving is certainly a non-trivial chance of death (1 in 18585 if that stupid site can be believed). I would assume then that you would take OPs bet if the number you had to pick was between 1 and 18585. I was just commenting that when you said *ALL* amounts at *ALL* odds, you really didn't mean that.

Re: Would you put your life on the line?
 

lol yes I would

Re: Would you put your life on the line?
 

I'd def do this and pick 2. Who the [censored] is gonna say 2? I mean come on.

Re: Would you put your life on the line?
 

1 in 50? I'd take that in a heartbeat. To put it in perspective, it's like saying you have top set vs bottom set and all the money goes in on the turn. Would you risk your life that you win there with top set for 10 million? I think it's an easy yes, as 10 million will improve your lifestyle significantly and 2% is pretty low.

Re: Would you put your life on the line?
 

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I'd def do this and pick 2. Who the [censored] is gonna say 2? I mean come on.

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lol

Re: Would you put your life on the line?
 

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I would assume then that you would take OPs bet if the number you had to pick was between 1 and 18585.

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You assume wrong. Maybe it's because people think it's cool to say they take the "value" over everything else. Or maybe you're just not reading what I write.

I will not place a value on my life or on my body. I will not give up my little finger or pinky toe for $1 million or more, whether it's whacked off by a cleaver or surgically removed with anesthesia and a scalpel.

[Please excuse the spelling errors above, if there are any]

The point is not whether my life would be better or worse. It's my body, my life, and I'm not going to say it's worth some definitive amount. That seems counterintuitive to how I want to live. If you feel different, take that little toe to ebay and good luck with it.

Re: Would you put your life on the line?
 

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[ QUOTE ]
I would assume then that you would take OPs bet if the number you had to pick was between 1 and 18585.

[/ QUOTE ]

You assume wrong. Maybe it's because people think it's cool to say they take the "value" over everything else. Or maybe you're just not reading what I write.

I will not place a value on my life or on my body. I will not give up my little finger or pinky toe for $1 million or more, whether it's whacked off by a cleaver or surgically removed with anesthesia and a scalpel.

[Please excuse the spelling errors above, if there are any]

The point is not whether my life would be better or worse. It's my body, my life, and I'm not going to say it's worth some definitive amount. That seems counterintuitive to how I want to live. If you feel different, take that little toe to ebay and good luck with it.

[/ QUOTE ]

My point is that you're irrational. It has nothing to do with being 'cool'. Every single decision you make in life is a choice between risk and reward and the OP (or at least the first time it was asked) is an interesting way to make you think about the choices you make every day.

Correctly (or I guess Incorrectly) picking a number between 1 and 18585 in the OP scenario and driving both have the exact same chance of you dying. Maybe you've deluded yourself into thinking that thats not true, but it is.

If you're not deluding yourself on your chances of dying while driving then you must value driving to the store to pick up your groceries more than you value 10 million dollars. Which is slightly irrational since you could pay somebody to get your groceries for you with that kind of money.

But lets change the OP slightly. Lets say you have to drive to the 50 largest cities in the Continental US, and if you do that some rich guy is going to give you 10 million dollars. Would you do that?

Re: Would you put your life on the line?
 

10-1?

Re: Would you put your life on the line?
 

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My point is that you're irrational. It has nothing to do with being 'cool'. Every single decision you make in life is a choice between risk and reward and the OP (or at least the first time it was asked) is an interesting way to make you think about the choices you make every day.

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Not sure I could disagree more, but perhaps we're at an impasse. Out of curiousity, how old are you? I'm 31.

Re: Would you put your life on the line?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My point is that you're irrational. It has nothing to do with being 'cool'. Every single decision you make in life is a choice between risk and reward and the OP (or at least the first time it was asked) is an interesting way to make you think about the choices you make every day.

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Not sure I could disagree more, but perhaps we're at an impasse. Out of curiousity, how old are you? I'm 31.

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This isn't a value or belief statement. Its a fact. Everytime you do action X there is some non-zero chance you could die. Some actions like lying on the couch have a pretty low percentage value, some actions like travelling 70 mph down a busy highway have a higher percentage (although still very low), some actions like playing Russian roulette have a much higher percentage. Every action we take we do because it gives us some utility (often not money).

I'd be curious to how you'd answer my question about driving to 50 cities in order to get 10 million dollars.

I'm 25.

Re: Would you put your life on the line?
 

id do this in a second...1 in 50 is as low as id go though.

Re: Would you put your life on the line?
 

I'd much rather take my chances of attacking him at an oppurtune moment, cuz if I get the right moment Id have a much better chance of taking the money than 1/50. As is though Id never take the 1/50 gamble.

Re: Would you put your life on the line?
 

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I'd much rather take my chances of attacking him at an oppurtune moment, cuz if I get the right moment Id have a much better chance of taking the money than 1/50. As is though Id never take the 1/50 gamble.

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I think you misunderstand this gamble/life.

Re: Would you put your life on the line?
 

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I would assume then that you would take OPs bet if the number you had to pick was between 1 and 18585.

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You assume wrong. Maybe it's because people think it's cool to say they take the "value" over everything else. Or maybe you're just not reading what I write.

I will not place a value on my life or on my body. I will not give up my little finger or pinky toe for $1 million or more, whether it's whacked off by a cleaver or surgically removed with anesthesia and a scalpel.

[Please excuse the spelling errors above, if there are any]

The point is not whether my life would be better or worse. It's my body, my life, and I'm not going to say it's worth some definitive amount. That seems counterintuitive to how I want to live. If you feel different, take that little toe to ebay and good luck with it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you work ?? You do it every day .

Re: Would you put your life on the line?
 

I say yes now, but might wuss out given the opportunity. I think it would be much easier if it was 1 in 500 for 1 million.

Re: Would you put your life on the line?
 

I absolutely take the gamble. I think 1-50 is about as comfortable as I am with this.

Re: Would you put your life on the line?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Nor do I think crossing the street represents a calculated risk.

[/ QUOTE ] It represents a risk, wether you've calculated it or not. Is your position that you will only take risks as long as your are able to be in denial about them being risks / as long as you haven't calculated them?

Well, ok. Like you say, it's your life.

Re: Would you put your life on the line?
 

I'm walking. I prolly wouldn't take the gamble until I had like 1 in 10K odds. Tho if I was confronted with such a situation I would be doubtful my odds were anywhere close to what I was supposedly being offered and I would walk regardless of the money or how high the odds that were offered were.