Schneids Video: Bluff and Loose Turn Call?
 

30/60 Stars (Schneids Video 2, ~2:45)

BTN raises, Schneids calls BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Schneids c/r, guy calls. How often do you make this bluff on this kind of board?

Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Schneids bets, guy raises, Schneids calls

This call confused me a bit. Even with implied odds, we don't have enough for our gutshot. Our pair outs might be good sometimes, but if we are calling down when we hit them we have to factor in reverse-implied odds, so.....

I did the math and, assuming that we average 1.5 bets profit when we hit our gutshot on the river, and assuming that we plan to cd on a river J or 9, our J/9 outs need to be good about 20% of the time to break even.

20% seems somewhat reasonable, but it is certainly close and the call might be losing.

So... are there strong meta-game reasons for making a call like this? Other considerations?

J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

River goes check, check, but I assume Schneids is calling a bet here?

Re: Schneids Video: Bluff and Loose Turn Call?
 

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30/60 Stars (Schneids Video 2, ~2:45)

BTN raises, Schneids calls BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Schneids c/r, guy calls. How often do you make this bluff on this kind of board?



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imo this is 100% villain dependent. if villain will look at this board and think "there are no draws here, so mike must have a pair", then i'd c/r just about always.

Re: Schneids Video: Bluff and Loose Turn Call?
 

"River goes check, check, but I assume Schneids is calling a bet here?"

i wouldn't assume that.

he's getting a little over 7 to 1 on the turn, right? i think implied odds are a bit better than 1.5 to be honest. you can't really discount the Td much because when it isn't good it is more likely you have an additional four pair outs (obviously would be even "more true" had the flop been 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]).

it all depends on the frequency w/ which he's fsdring a hand against which you have the additional outs. if he's never doing that it looks -ev at a glance. if he has these hands say 10% of the time, the additional value to the turn call is (arbitrarily assuming 4 additional outs) 0.1*(4/46)*7bb = 0.06bb. that is tiny. is this math wrong? because now it looks fairly unrealistic to think this happens enough to make up the missing odds...

Re: Schneids Video: Bluff and Loose Turn Call?
 

This is a great board for villain to float in pos. and raise any turn card, therefore Schneids has to give himself some pair outs. I am surprised he didn't 3 bet the turn though, I think that's the play.

-DeathDonkey

Re: Schneids Video: Bluff and Loose Turn Call?
 

Don't think this was player specific at all. I know he mentions that early on he wanted to establish and aggressive non-folding image. Mission accomplished here. The turn is close, knowing the villian I'm not surprised he raised here planning to check behind so 3 bettig the turn would have been sick and iced that image he was looking for if he happened to get caught.

Re: Schneids Video: Bluff and Loose Turn Call?
 

this isnt standard by any means, i do this a lot but i also check call a lot. i fold approximately never on the flop

Re: Schneids Video: Bluff and Loose Turn Call?
 

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This is a great board for villain to float in pos. and raise any turn card, therefore Schneids has to give himself some pair outs. I am surprised he didn't 3 bet the turn though, I think that's the play.

-DeathDonkey

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Really? Expecting that villain folds outright?

EDIT: DD, don't you think this turn card could be inspiring a number of semi bluffs that really hurt your fold equity?

Re: Schneids Video: Bluff and Loose Turn Call?
 

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it all depends on the frequency w/ which he's fsdring a hand against which you have the additional outs. if he's never doing that it looks -ev at a glance. if he has these hands say 10% of the time, the additional value to the turn call is (arbitrarily assuming 4 additional outs) 0.1*(4/46)*7bb = 0.06bb. that is tiny. is this math wrong? because now it looks fairly unrealistic to think this happens enough to make up the missing odds...

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miles,

you may be right here. if villain is fsd'ing 10% of the time we are breaking even:

.8*-1 + .08*9 + .12*(.1*7.5) = .01

Re: Schneids Video: Bluff and Loose Turn Call?
 

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this isnt standard by any means, i do this a lot but i also check call a lot. i fold approximately never on the flop

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bz,

you c/c the flop planning to do what?

thanks,
gm

Re: Schneids Video: Bluff and Loose Turn Call?
 

Re: Schneids Video: Bluff and Loose Turn Call?
 

awesome. you and dean should start a brand. how to play like an overagg idiot and get bailed out by the deck.

Re: Schneids Video: Bluff and Loose Turn Call?
 

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awesome. you and dean should start a brand. how to play like an overagg idiot and get bailed out by the deck.

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Victor,

your thoughts on this hand?

Re: Schneids Video: Bluff and Loose Turn Call?
 

my thoughts are that i am always the guy with fckn tt here.

Re: Schneids Video: Bluff and Loose Turn Call?
 

y raise the turn with TT here? just curious, seems like u lose worse hands and better hands never fold

Re: Schneids Video: Bluff and Loose Turn Call?
 

if you don't see why this is a good flop c/r maybe you are missing out on a key LHE concept?

the question is the freq to bet the turn when called on the flop, which is entirely oppt. dependent.

Re: Schneids Video: Bluff and Loose Turn Call?
 

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if you don't see why this is a good flop c/r maybe you are missing out on a key LHE concept?

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The flop c/r didnt confuse me at all, though I did ask what people thought the right frequency for the move was on this kind of board (no one has answered that yet).

In your response, referring to the flop c/r I believe, you said: this isnt standard by any means, i do this a lot but i also check call a lot. i fold approximately never on the flop

Then I asked you what your plan is after you c/c the flop. I wasn't implying it was a bad play... was just curious how you plan to proceed.

Thanks,
gm

Re: Schneids Video: Bluff and Loose Turn Call?
 

what i wanna know:

What do you do if your villain here , and have a marginal hand. Like a very weak pair, weak ace etc... And you know hero is able of making these CR plays with very weak hands himself.

?

Re: Schneids Video: Bluff and Loose Turn Call?
 

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what i wanna know:

What do you do if your villain here , and have a marginal hand. Like a very weak pair, weak ace etc... And you know hero is able of making these CR plays with very weak hands himself.

?

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Calldown

Re: Schneids Video: Bluff and Loose Turn Call?
 

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This is a great board for villain to float in pos. and raise any turn card, therefore Schneids has to give himself some pair outs. I am surprised he didn't 3 bet the turn though, I think that's the play.

-DeathDonkey

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On a double broadway board I think you'll see too many either legit hands or hands that were stupid to raise the turn that now realize they've picked up outs and have to call the 3bet. So you're committing yourself to a 4BB bluff when you do this and I think the risk:reward ratio isn't nearly good enough to do that.

Rob

Re: Schneids Video: Bluff and Loose Turn Call?
 

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I am surprised he didn't 3 bet the turn though, I think that's the play.

-DeathDonkey

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el
oh
el

Re: Schneids Video: Bluff and Loose Turn Call?
 

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This is a great board for villain to float in pos. and raise any turn card, therefore Schneids has to give himself some pair outs. I am surprised he didn't 3 bet the turn though, I think that's the play.

-DeathDonkey

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what hands that are (a) better than ours and (b) not commited to a SD does villain fold if we bet/3bet this turn?

Re: Schneids Video: Bluff and Loose Turn Call?
 

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This is a great board for villain to float in pos. and raise any turn card, therefore Schneids has to give himself some pair outs. I am surprised he didn't 3 bet the turn though, I think that's the play.

-DeathDonkey

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you are leveling right?

Re: Schneids Video: Bluff and Loose Turn Call?
 

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if you don't see why this is a good flop c/r maybe you are missing out on a key LHE concept?

the question is the freq to bet the turn when called on the flop, which is entirely oppt. dependent.

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Assuming villian is solid, I do not think this is a good flop c/r at all. Sure it is a good flop for fold equity, but IMO that isnt enough when you got almost nothing else to work with.

There is a straight draw on the flop and the only hands villian will give up that easily with are the ones just like hero's hand.

At least get a heart on the board so we have a backdoor flush draw (and then perhaps can bet/3bet semi-bluff a heart turn when villian tries to FSD). As it is we got nohting to work with and IMO the flop c/r is definitely bad.

I would c/f this flop.

Re: Schneids Video: Bluff and Loose Turn Call?
 

do a flop equity calc and just compare str8 equities here. i think against most opponents a checkraise here with any 2 is almost even EV, assuming you are drawing dead if he has a hand.

im not saying we should always c/r here, and i def dont, but i think against a button raiser we have far too much equity and good turn checkbehind odds (versus only somewhat bad reverse implied odds, which will only hurt us when he has a king/betterjack etc AND we spike on the turn)

Re: Schneids Video: Bluff and Loose Turn Call?
 

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do a flop equity calc and just compare str8 equities here. i think against most opponents a checkraise here with any 2 is almost even EV, assuming you are drawing dead if he has a hand.

im not saying we should always c/r here, and i def dont, but i think against a button raiser we have far too much equity and good turn checkbehind odds (versus only somewhat bad reverse implied odds, which will only hurt us when he has a king/betterjack etc AND we spike on the turn)

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Equity certainly is meaningfull, but in terms of applying the hot/cold stuff to reality (vs a good player in position), I think a significant discount is in order (ridiculously so if he is going to FSD ace high on the turn).

Re: Schneids Video: Bluff and Loose Turn Call?
 

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im not saying we should always c/r here, and i def dont, but i think against a button raiser we have far too much equity and good turn checkbehind odds (versus only somewhat bad reverse implied odds, which will only hurt us when he has a king/betterjack etc AND we spike on the turn)

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Can you clarify what you mean by the bolded phrase?

Are you referring to c/raising the flop and then checking the turn hoping it gets checked behind?

I could be wrong here but I got the feeling Schneids was firing again on this turn almost always.

Re: Schneids Video: Bluff and Loose Turn Call?
 

just the odds he checks behind the turn g_m. he's giving an additional reason that c/c > c/f after mentioning that he doesn't always c/r the flop.

Re: Schneids Video: Bluff and Loose Turn Call?
 

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just the odds he checks behind the turn g_m. he's giving an additional reason that c/c > c/f after mentioning that he doesn't always c/r the flop.

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ty