$10 Home game, (easy) fold?
 

7 started, 4 remain, top 3 pay. I have been seriously shortstacked through most of it but have been picking up lots of blinds pushing preflop and then won a decent hand to get into second place. Blinds are 2/4 and the average stack is about $50, I'm up at about $60 and the chip leader is near $70.

I'm SB with Ad Jd, UTG and CO(chip leader, seems to be a pretty tight player) limp, I make it $12. Folds around to UTG who calls. Flop is As Jc Ts and I lead for $15. CO thinks for a bit and pushes. There's a good chance I'm beat here but if I fold I've just blown half my stack and with the blinds going up soon (3 min I think) I'd be in trouble, especially since people already know I've been stealing blinds. Thoughts? Thanks...

Re: $10 Home game, (easy) fold?
 

A good chance? only KQ beats you here AA JJ TT would raise you and are very unlikely given your holdings. insta call..

Re: $10 Home game, (easy) fold?
 

yeah, poor choice of wording probably because i know the outcome of the hand, but the chip leader was playing tight enough that i couldn't think of too many hands he would make that play with that i could beat when he stands to lose most of his stack and not reach money if i call and win.

Re: $10 Home game, (easy) fold?
 

You've been aggressive, stealing blinds and you just lead the flop after a pfr. Pretty good chance CO thinks this is a c-bet and is shoving over you to re-steal. You're only crushed by AA, JJ, TT and KQ - and I don't see AA, JJ or TT limping in the CO very often. There's a lot of pairs here that I think might push to steal, and he might even do it with a flush draw or combo draw (say Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]). Given that and the fact that you've got half your stack out there already, I get it in here.

Also, with a pot of 36, why bet 15 - less than half the pot? It feels like a probe bet, which is likely to induce a steal attempt if somebody has anything. I pot this flop instead - and considering that would only leave you with 12 behind, I think I just shove the flop right out.

Re: $10 Home game, (easy) fold?
 

If you're gonna raise, push over two limpers. You only have 15BBs, and you need to raise to around 5 BBs for it to be effective. You gave them nice odds to call. Putting in 20% of your stack and building a pot out of position isn't good.

As played, I don't know how you can get away from this flop. Are you really considering folding this flop after leading 1/3 of your stack? I like an open shove cuz it's drawy and a big pot, and worse hands will call.

Re: $10 Home game, (easy) fold?
 

lol donkaments. There's no folding here.

Re: $10 Home game, (easy) fold?
 

I would shove pre because it's the bubble and I want them to fold, although 5x and shoving any flop probably gives you more of a chip gain on average.