Fold this AK PF?
 

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG (t4996)
Hero (t13424)
MP1 (t13458)
MP2 (t5454)
MP3 (t6765)
CO (t13135)
Button (t5367)
SB (t12195)
BB (t9279)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1850</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t5450</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero ???

Reads: I had been a bit more active but had solid to premium hands each time since villian was moved to the table.

Villian had also shown down strong hands. Looked afterward to see he was in top 30 on TLB for year, still early i know.

Not quite near the money either. Stars $20, 10k gtd.

Re: Fold this AK PF?
 

You're most likely against a pair. Your M was about 11 when you started the hand. If you fold, it's down to 9 and you're going to be in push-fold mode and you might not pick up a hand better than AK before you need to push. there is always the chance that this could be a re-steal with air or a weaker ace or a suited connector.

so I would call. 2nd choice fold. all-in re-raise is bad b/c only better hands are going to call you. call and go is bad b/c you're pot committed by the call.

contradicted myself there - said to call and go and that call and go was bad. all in.

Re: Fold this AK PF?
 

All in and its not close; you are precisely behind 2 hands. You have beeen active. End of discussion

Re: Fold this AK PF?
 

You're both among the big stacks and unless you've been nuts and/or he's been re-stealing you're behind his range, right. I guess he could have AQ but that's the only hand you should be ahead of. Getting 2.3 to 1 odds. You're 2 to 1 to make a pair. If he has AA/KK and you make a pair, you're obviously getting stacked. If he has a smaller pair I don't think you get paid off. Without spending time cranking out the math this feels like an -EV call.

You have folding equity pre-flop but I'm pretty sure you're a slight dog - maybe 40/60. Does he fold JJ/TT here? If so then a push is likely +EV but not hugely.

So, I do think this is a time where AK can be folded.

Re: Fold this AK PF?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Your M was about 11 when you started the hand. If you fold, it's down to 9 and you're going to be in push-fold mode

[/ QUOTE ]

I've been seeing this too much recently. Why all of a sudden are you in push-fold mode with an M of 9? People seem to confuse the "guideline" of pushing with 10 BBs or less with an M of 10 or less. You still have lots of play with an M of 10. You can certainly do more than just push or fold.

Re: Fold this AK PF?
 

[ QUOTE ]
You're both among the big stacks and unless you've been nuts and/or he's been re-stealing you're behind his range, right. I guess he could have AQ but that's the only hand you should be ahead of. Getting 2.3 to 1 odds. You're 2 to 1 to make a pair. If he has AA/KK and you make a pair, you're obviously getting stacked. If he has a smaller pair I don't think you get paid off. Without spending time cranking out the math this feels like an -EV call. You have folding equity pre-flop but I'm pretty sure you're a slight dog - maybe 40/60. Does he fold JJ/TT here? If so then a push is likely +EV but not hugely.

So, I do think this is a time where AK can be folded.

[/ QUOTE ]

Loyd,
hero has been active and his hand is now disguised against a thinking player.

Re: Fold this AK PF?
 

[ QUOTE ]
All in and its not close; you are precisely behind 2 hands. You have beeen active. End of discussion

[/ QUOTE ]
He is precisely behind every single pair.

Re: Fold this AK PF?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Reads: I had been a bit more active but had solid to premium hands each time since villian was moved to the table.

Villian had also shown down strong hands. Looked afterward to see he was in top 30 on TLB for year, still early i know.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Fold this AK PF?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
All in and its not close; you are precisely behind 2 hands. You have beeen active. End of discussion

[/ QUOTE ]
He is precisely behind every single pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

At this point are you worrying about 22?

Re: Fold this AK PF?
 

No. But you said he's precisely behind 2 hands and that's not accurate. He's behind every single pair. And while there's overlay because of the dead money the stacks seem deep enough that the odds he's getting if he pushes certainly don't make it a clearly +EV decision. It wouldn't be horrible, but it's not clear cut.

Re: Fold this AK PF?
 

[ QUOTE ]
You're most likely against a pair. Your M was about 11 when you started the hand. If you fold, it's down to 9 and you're going to be in push-fold mode and you might not pick up a hand better than AK before you need to push. there is always the chance that this could be a re-steal with air or a weaker ace or a suited connector.

so I would call. 2nd choice fold. all-in re-raise is bad b/c only better hands are going to call you. call and go is bad b/c you're pot committed by the call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Call is obv. worst play unless you like to commit almost 1/2 your stack preflop and then think about folding on flop. So it's either all-in or fold. Against a solid player he's probably reraising JJ+/AK/AQ(? dunno about last one). You have AK so there are 3 combos of AA, 3 combos of KK, 9 combos of AK, 12 combos AQ (lets cut it in half to be fair so 6) and 6 combos of QQ and JJ each. It's late so I have to forego the math but I think it's pretty close between pushing and folding. Since you are behind his range and only a big favorite against AQ, I don't think folding is terrible. You've both been showing down solid hands so I don't think he is doing this with a much wider range. It also might encourage him to come over the top of you again when you have a hand you like better.

Even though pushing AK in a tournament is often +EV, there are situations where you can get rid of it. Villian wants to go all the way with his hand considering his raise, so don't feel bad if you fold it here. However I wouldn't fault a push either in order to try to double up, gotta make some gambles and a simple reraise shouldn't consistently keep you from making moves.

Re: Fold this AK PF?
 

You are right. The hands he is behind is AA KK and flipping against the rest getttin odds&gt;

Re: Fold this AK PF?
 

[ QUOTE ]
You're both among the big stacks

[/ QUOTE ]

They are both big stacks at the table, but they do not have more than 12 of M either still away from the money. At Stars this probably means that this table is unusually low stacked compared to the overall field. You will soon need to double up to go deep into the money as a contender, and if AK is not a hand to do that with against one reraiser I don't know how many others are. I will just shove and see the remaining five cards if get called.

Re: Fold this AK PF?
 

push, u need a super strong read to fold AK against one opponent with 20bb.

this is +cev if either A) he does this with AQ B) he does this with 77 or 88. if youve been active i think both are likely which puts you in pretty decent shape against his range.

Re: Fold this AK PF?
 

one thing to add given the replies, we were both above the avg stacks left in the tourney.

Re: Fold this AK PF?
 

For those who say "you've been active", read the rest of his statement. Since the villain got to the table he's shown down good hands, as has the villain.

So let's say the villain has AA-TT, AK, AQs. Let's also say that he'll fold TT and JJ half the time and AQs all the time if the hero re-raises pre-flop.

So there are a total of 36 hands the villain could have and he's going to fold 9 of them (half of TT/JJ and AQs). So the hero will win pre-flop 25% of the time. The rest of the time the hero is a 40/60 dog.

25% villain folds = Hero has 19,808
19,808 * .25 = 4,952

75% villain calls
40% hero wins = Hero has 27,459
27,459 * .40 = 10,984
60% hero loses = Hero has 289
289 * .6 = 173
Expected Stack When Hero is Called = 11,157 * .75 = 8,368

Expected stack if Hero pushes = 4,952 + 8,368 = 13,320

If hero folds, his stack is 11,574. So, looks like pushing is superior with those assumptions.

But let's take away AQs and TT from his range. After all, we're talking about a situation where the villain is up against an EP raiser who can bust him, and the villain is a good player.

So now there are a total of 27 total combinations the villain could have. Let's say he folds JJ half the time and calls with everything else. So he's calling 89% of the time and folding 11% of the time. When the hero is called he's still a 40/60 dog.

11% villain folds = Hero has 19,808
19,808 * .11 = 2,179

89% villain calls
40% hero wins = Hero has 27,459
27,459 * .40 = 10,984
60% hero loses = Hero has 289
289 * .6 = 173
Expected Stack When Hero is Called = 11,157 * .89 = 9,930

Expected stack if Hero pushes = 2,179 + 9,930 = 12,109. That's just a hair more than if the hero folds.

So all things considered, it does look like a pre-flop push might be the best play. I still don't think it's a clear cut decision as I think his range is closer to AA-JJ, AK than AA-TT, AK-AQs.

Also, I think raising 2.5 BBs at this stage might make some (maybe not this) decisions easier when the stack sizes are in this awkward 20 BB range.

Re: Fold this AK PF?
 

Lloyd,
Great post, thanks for doing the math I was too lazy to think about.

Re: Fold this AK PF?
 

[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Lloyd

FWIW, this was maybe one of the hardest PF decisions I have had to make in a while. I used up maybe half my timer on this one too before finally folding. Besides the math, which i did not calculate at the time obv. just made general assumptions that this was a 50/50 push fold and calling was ruled out. Other things I took into consideration was if i wanted to flip for my stack being a 40/60 dog at best.

I dont know if I made a sick read with so little info, but now the more i think about it, his reraise here is never less than JJ+ and AK. He said he had QQ which was generally what i put him on. I also dont think he folds anything that he raises me with since it was almost half his stack. One other thing i considered, there were still some pretty bad players at the table and I felt that I could get those chips back later.

My read about villain being a good player proved to be true as well.

Re: Fold this AK PF?
 

[ QUOTE ]
He is precisely behind every single pair.

[/ QUOTE ]Not from a pot odds perspective.

Re: Fold this AK PF?
 

Is a stop-and-go ok here? Hero will be pushing ~8K into an ~12K pot on the flop, so I'm not sure about the FE even against whiffed mid pairs. Not that I mind a push.

Re: Fold this AK PF?
 

I think a stop and go is awful here, since villian plays perfectly against it given his reraising range.

If an A or K flops and you move all-in, he folds 10's-QQ's
and calls with AA, KK, AK, and AQ. So AQ is the only spot
you are making any more money.

If no A or K flops and you move all-in, he calls with atleast an overpair to board. You only get AK, AQ to fold
and given 2.5 to 1 pot odds, you might even get called by AK
since he's 3 to 1 against QQ or less- thus splitting the pot.

Stop and go works best when you can make a better hand fold
on the flop that wouldn't fold to a pre-flop AI. That's not the case here.

Re: Fold this AK PF?
 

I dont think a SnGo is very good here as ~40% of my stack is in the pot if i just call, which basically pot commits me and i still need to improve my hand. I dont think I have any FE given villains raise compared to his stack size.

Re: Fold this AK PF?
 

Lloyd,

When you're doing those calculations, do you ever take into account the percentage of time that villian is on a complete bluff? If so, what percentage do you use?

Re: Fold this AK PF?
 

[ QUOTE ]
You are right. The hands he is behind is AA KK and flipping against the rest getttin odds&gt;

[/ QUOTE ]


and , of course you holding AK severely reduces the chance of AA or KK being out there.

i guess, the real question is ,do you want to flip for your life here, or can you find better places to invest your chips.

Re: Fold this AK PF?
 

Approaching bubble territory is a great time to take a bit of a gamble and look to have a good sized stack on the bubble. I shove this every time and don't think twice about it.

Re: Fold this AK PF?
 

If he said he had QQ he probably had AQ...

Re: Fold this AK PF?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Approaching bubble territory is a great time to take a bit of a gamble and look to have a good sized stack on the bubble. I shove this every time and don't think twice about it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont know if I agree with you here, with so many bad players still at the table it just seems to make more sense to find better spots. I do agree that taking the flip has its merits and against certain players, shoving AJo is even correct. I mean, I called a reraise that put me all-in by another guy who had shown down a lot of garbage with AQs, i won but he had a decent hand for a change. I think that table dynamics come in huge here too and really makes shoving a bad play a small % of the time. Not sure, maybe I am missing something that someone else can point out.

Re: Fold this AK PF?
 

I dont hate the fold. Also, UCLA, if I played like you I would often fold AK in that spot. However, given my image im pretty much always jamming and hating it.

Re: Fold this AK PF?
 

[ QUOTE ]
..............So let's say the villain has AA-TT, AK, AQs. Let's also say that he'll fold TT and JJ half the time and AQs all the time if the hero re-raises pre-flop...........So there are a total of 36 hands the villain could have..........

[/ QUOTE ]

AA=3 KK=3 QQ=6 JJ=6 TT=6 AK=9 AQ=12 : Total 45 hands


[ QUOTE ]
and he's going to fold 9 of them (half of TT/JJ and AQs).

[/ QUOTE ]

1/2 of TT = 3 1/2 of JJ = 3 &amp; AQ = 12 Total hands:18
(You did say Villian would fold AQ all the time)

So the Hero will win Preflop 40% of the time.

[ QUOTE ]
The rest of the time the hero is a 40/60 dog.

[/ QUOTE ]

According to Pokerstove, AK v. TT+,AK:
Wins 28.13 Loses 45.85% Draws 13.01%

So Hero wins 40% of the time Preflop
Wins 28.13% of the time Postflop
Draws 13.01% of the time Postflop

Stands behind the rail 45.85% of the 40% of the time that Villian calls: .40 * 45.85 = 18% of the time.

We can stop right there. 88% chance he will still be in the game with either an almost doubled stack, splitting the pot, or winning the pot preflop.

That's too good to be true! All In Baby!

That is, if Villian will fold JJ,TT 1/2 the time and AQ all the time.........

Re: Fold this AK PF?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He is precisely behind every single pair.

[/ QUOTE ]Not from a pot odds perspective.

[/ QUOTE ]
Of course, but that wasn't what he said.

Re: Fold this AK PF?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Is a stop-and-go ok here? Hero will be pushing ~8K into an ~12K pot on the flop, so I'm not sure about the FE even against whiffed mid pairs. Not that I mind a push.

[/ QUOTE ]
A stop and go works only if you're first to act on the flop. That's not the case here.

Re: Fold this AK PF?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Lloyd,

When you're doing those calculations, do you ever take into account the percentage of time that villian is on a complete bluff? If so, what percentage do you use?

[/ QUOTE ]
In this example, I didn't. I think the chance that he's on a bluff aren't that great. And even if we say there's a 5% chance he's bluffing the results don't change dramatically.

Re: Fold this AK PF?
 

AQs, not AQ. You can do the math with AQ, that's just not what I did. There are only 3 possible holdings of AQs.

[ QUOTE ]
According to Pokerstove, AK v. TT+,AK:
Wins 28.13 Loses 45.85% Draws 13.01%

[/ QUOTE ]
You need to be precise in PokerStove. What you ran is NOT the assumptions I gave. First of all, he doesn't have AK. He has AcKd. When he just put in AK it includes AKs as a possibility which will improve his chances. You're also putting in TT and JJ - all of the possibilities. If we say he'll fold TT/JJ half the time then you obviously can only use 3 of the 6 possible holdings for each of those hands.

Re: Fold this AK PF?
 

[ QUOTE ]
AQs, not AQ. You can do the math with AQ, that's just not what I did. There are only 3 possible holdings of AQs.

[ QUOTE ]
According to Pokerstove, AK v. TT+,AK:
Wins 28.13 Loses 45.85% Draws 13.01%

[/ QUOTE ]
You need to be precise in PokerStove. What you ran is NOT the assumptions I gave. First of all, he doesn't have AK. He has AcKd. When he just put in AK it includes AKs as a possibility which will improve his chances. You're also putting in TT and JJ - all of the possibilities. If we say he'll fold TT/JJ half the time then you obviously can only use 3 of the 6 possible holdings for each of those hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lloyd,

How can you put in Hero's exact hand when you don't know Villian's? I did put in AKo, so hero was not given the advantage of being suited.
By not specifying the suits of Hero's hand, since we don't know the suits of Villian's, I am allowing for all possible combinations of suits between the two players, while keeping Hero's AK unsuited.

I would think you would also analyze with all possible pairs, as the suits make a difference. We "removed" 1/2 the pairs to determine how often Hero sees a Flop, however, when it comes to analyzing win% against the pairs I would think once again, that you have to analyze all possible suits. Pokerstove is analyzing all possibilities.

AKo v. TT+,AQs,AKo,AKs
wins 30.56%
Loses 44.82%
Draws 12.31%

If you run it with AcKd v. TT+AQs you get the same stats.

Re: Fold this AK PF?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Is a stop-and-go ok here? Hero will be pushing ~8K into an ~12K pot on the flop, so I'm not sure about the FE even against whiffed mid pairs. Not that I mind a push.

[/ QUOTE ]
A stop and go works only if you're first to act on the flop. That's not the case here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Last time I checked, UTG1 acts before CO postflop.

Re: Fold this AK PF?
 

Well, we know the hero's exact hand so that obviously should be entered. We also know that the villain cannot hold Ac or Kd. As far as JJ/TT, if the villain is folding half of those you HAVE to remove HALF of the possibilities from Pokerstove to be accurate. I don' think it makes a HUGE difference which you remove. Yes, it might diminish the possibility of making a flush but the hero will only win with a flush a fairly small percentage of the time. But you MUST remove half of the possibilities if you say the villain will only call with half.

In my first example, there were 36 possible hands of which the villain would fold 9 (AQs, half of TT, half of JJ). If you enter the villain's range in PokerStove as TT+, AK you're giving him 33 possibilities, not 27. If you only include half of TT and JJ, now you've got the correct 27 number of possibilities.

Re: Fold this AK PF?
 

Ooops, thanks. I was responding back and forth on two similar hands and it was the other one the villain was in the SB.

Re: Fold this AK PF?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I dont hate the fold. Also, UCLA, if I played like you I would often fold AK in that spot. However, given my image im pretty much always jamming and hating it.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont hate the fold. Also, UCLA, if I played like you I would often fold AK in that spot. However, given my image im pretty much always jamming and hating it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would only take my image into account in a higher buyin tournament against someone I know or who I have a read on (as thinking and noticing me, etc.).

In a $20 random tourney against a random player, I wouldn't fact image in here much at all.

We have just 20 BBs and so does villain. It's a nice raise by villain and he could do it with a bigger range then most think, definitely including AQ and even some random stuff.

Re: Fold this AK PF?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Well, we know the hero's exact hand so that obviously should be entered. We also know that the villain cannot hold Ac or Kd. As far as JJ/TT, if the villain is folding half of those you HAVE to remove HALF of the possibilities from Pokerstove to be accurate. I don' think it makes a HUGE difference which you remove. Yes, it might diminish the possibility of making a flush but the hero will only win with a flush a fairly small percentage of the time. But you MUST remove half of the possibilities if you say the villain will only call with half.

In my first example, there were 36 possible hands of which the villain would fold 9 (AQs, half of TT, half of JJ). If you enter the villain's range in PokerStove as TT+, AK you're giving him 33 possibilities, not 27. If you only include half of TT and JJ, now you've got the correct 27 number of possibilities.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lloyd,

So how did you decide which 3 pairs of J's &amp; T's to use? Did you give them a chance to make a flush with both cards, or just one, or not at all?

I ran it with AKo v. TT+,AKo,AKs without specifying suits:
AKo wins 27.16% &amp; draws 13.23%

Are you looking at the equity where it's 40.392 for Hero and 59.608 for Villian? Is that what you are using to quote 40/60 Dog?

Hero may be a 40/60 Dog, but that's equity. Villian only wins 46.38% of the time &amp; ties 13.23%. That's where Villian's 60% equity comes into play.

Re: Fold this AK PF?
 

Im pushing every time on that spot on every tournament without a very solid read. Top 30 in the leaderboard is not a very solid read IMO I shove.
However I usually have a wild image by the time I have 13k.