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-   -   Push ok? (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=556799)

tweak 11-28-2007 09:32 PM

Push ok?
 
Villain is 14/10

Noble Poker 0.25/0.50, hand converted by the iPoker Converter at Talking-Poker

saw flop | <font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

Button <font color="#C00000">tweak ($53.75)</font>
SB TTR25091907 ($108.04)
BB <font color="#C00000">thestroke888 ($46.35)</font>
UTG EnTaroAdun ($68.80)
UTG+1 noiq3443312 ($70.80)

Preflop: tweak is on the Button with Ac Kc
2 folds, tweak raises to 2.00, 1 fold, thestroke888 raises to 5.50, tweak moves all-in for 51.75

mickb70 11-28-2007 09:52 PM

Re: Push ok?
 
Whats your hurry? You've got position. Hand plays well HU. Hand has a lot of ways to hit.

tweak 11-28-2007 09:54 PM

Re: Push ok?
 
I'd be happy enough taking down the flop here and now. The only hands that can call me and have me dominated are AA and KK. QQ could fold, and even if calls I'm 50/50.

I hear your points though.

eastern motors 11-28-2007 10:00 PM

Re: Push ok?
 
I would probably make it like $17 and fold to a push. This guy is pretty tight. If he calls, I would c-bet any flop.

mickb70 11-28-2007 10:09 PM

Re: Push ok?
 
Lets put villain on re-raise range of JJ+,AQs+,AKo. And say he calls with KK+,AKs. Doesn't seem unreasonable.

Hand 0: 67.918% 53.29% 14.63% 32849568 9016902.00 { KK+, AKs }
Hand 1: 32.082% 17.45% 14.63% 10759572 9016902.00 { AKs }

You are folding out 63% of his range and have 32% equity the other 37% of the time.

You are paying about $41 to take down 3.50 now or buying about $30 worth of equity when he calls. So its about +$2 when he folds and about -$3.5.

tweak 11-28-2007 10:55 PM

Re: Push ok?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Lets put villain on re-raise range of JJ+,AQs+,AKo. And say he calls with KK+,AKs. Doesn't seem unreasonable.

Hand 0: 67.918% 53.29% 14.63% 32849568 9016902.00 { KK+, AKs }
Hand 1: 32.082% 17.45% 14.63% 10759572 9016902.00 { AKs }

You are folding out 63% of his range and have 32% equity the other 37% of the time.

You are paying about $41 to take down 3.50 now or buying about $30 worth of equity when he calls. So its about +$2 when he folds and about -$3.5.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a little confused by all this! Are you saying my move was bad? Thanks!

NeverScurred 11-28-2007 11:00 PM

Re: Push ok?
 
Your push was a ridiculous overbet. If you're going to 4-bet, make it a reasonable amount (another poster suggested $17, which seems fine). I prefer to just flat call his 3bet, though, because you have position and are ahead of his 3-betting range. You're not ahead of the range that calls a shove.

mickb70 11-28-2007 11:09 PM

Re: Push ok?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Lets put villain on re-raise range of JJ+,AQs+,AKo. And say he calls with KK+,AKs. Doesn't seem unreasonable.

Hand 0: 67.918% 53.29% 14.63% 32849568 9016902.00 { KK+, AKs }
Hand 1: 32.082% 17.45% 14.63% 10759572 9016902.00 { AKs }

You are folding out 63% of his range and have 32% equity the other 37% of the time.

You are paying about $41 to take down 3.50 now or buying about $30 worth of equity when he calls. So its about +$2 when he folds and about -$3.5.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a little confused by all this! Are you saying my move was bad? Thanks!

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm basically saying that if you accept the ranges I assigned you lose about $1.5 so in isolation its -ev and therefore bad. But even if you could argue for a range that is +ev for a shove it still would be a worse line than a smaller 3-bet or even a flat call and take a flop.


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