Re: Settle this Baseball Argument
 

Hardy, Braun, and Fielder are not "significantly" better than Bill Hall. In fact, Hardy is not at all a better hitter than Hall.

I believe bunting was the correct move in each case last night. The next hitters just came up with the absolute worst AB's they could have.

Re: Settle this Baseball Argument
 

Swing away. You didn't say whether or not #2 is good at bunting, so I assumed average.

When bunting, you can pop it up to catcher, or even get the guy out at third, or possibly if bunted too hard to pitcher, get a 3rd-to-1st DP. There is a lot that can go wrong. A successful bunt will allow #3 the sac fly option, though.

Swinging away may cause double play, but most likely would leave guy at 3rd who can score on any hit from #3 hitter. Striking out would suck, but whatever. Also, many singles will score runner from 2nd base (although 3rd base coach likely holds them up on close play as not to make first out at home).

And you give #2 hitter chance to be hero (See: Mr. November/Captain Clutch), which is more important to owners than winning. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Settle this Baseball Argument
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hardy, Braun, and Fielder are not "significantly" better than Bill Hall. In fact, Hardy is not at all a better hitter than Hall.

I believe bunting was the correct move in each case last night. The next hitters just came up with the absolute worst AB's they could have.

[/ QUOTE ]

Braun and Fielder absolutely are wayyyyy better hitters than Hall, the only person you could even argue against would be Hardy.

My non-statistical way of thinking about this question was this. With your best 3 hitters coming up and only needing a single to win, except for the slight possibility of a double play, if you have them swing away, the opposing team will need to get through all 3 of your best hitters to prevent you from winning the game. Bunting in this situation effectively takes the bat out of 2 of your 3 best hitters. The #2 hitter now records a basically automatic out, and there is always the possibility of an unsuccessful bunt that results in a pop out or a force out at 3rd, or two foul bunts in a row that result in having to swing away with an 0-2 count. Now even if the bunt does succeed you have men on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out, and the opposing team can choose to walk your #3 hitter and pitch to the #4 hitter with the bases loaded, so now you've lost the ABs of your 2 and 3 hitter. Or they can pitch to the #3 hitter and if they get him out, walking the #4 hitter becomes obvious. Basically the point is, if the 2 hitter bunts, there is no way the 3 and 4 hitters are both getting an AB unless the bunt was unsuccessful. So now instead of having to deal with all 3 of the team's best hitters, the opposing team effectively only has to get out 1 of your best 3 hitters, and gets their choice of 1 of 2 to face.

Re: Settle this Baseball Argument
 

The success of a sacrifice attempt varies based on the D.

If you have The Book, check out page 283 (first edition). Long story short, its much harder to bunt in the 9th inning. To quote "The net result is that an average batter who bunts (as slightly worse than a league average hitter) achieves a greater WE for hitting away than from attempting a sacrifice, even in the bottom of the ninth in a tied game. Without going through the numbers, the results are similar with a runner on second or on first and second."

If your 2 hitter is average, Jack is right. It sounds like this 2 hitter is above average:

"In the ninth inning of a close game, below average hitters should bunt most of the time, given typical speed and bunting ability. Average hitters should bunt about half the time. Above average hitters should rarely bunt. The speed of he lead runner appears to be a significant in the success of failure of the sacrifice attempt in the ninth inning, and as always, the speed and bunting proficiency of the batter should be strongly considered." (p.284)

DP's matter a lot too.
"With a runner on first or first and second, and no outs, the batter's GDP rate (adjusted for the pitcher) should be considered in deciding whether to bunt." p 280
The

In a tied game in the bottom of the 9th, does not WE = RE?

Re: Settle this Baseball Argument
 

Mostly hit away. Fast runner on second, #4 hitter who doesn't hit into a lot of double plays, bunt more often.

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Augie Garrido, who has won more games than any other college coach ever, said that with 1st and 2nd and no outs, he would bunt Babe Ruth.

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I assumed:

.300 hitters

.7 chance of successful bunt

.6 chance of hit or SF

I got 64% and 65% chance of scoring 1 run for bunt/no bunt.

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Then he's a goddamn idiot.

Re: Settle this Baseball Argument
 

One of the few situations where I think a bunt is absolutely correct. But I am assuming that the 2 hitter is a competent bunter.

And I really have no idea what the stats are for successful sacrifice bunts. Generally, what % of attempted sacrifice bunt attempts fail? And what % result in infield hits?

Re: Settle this Baseball Argument
 

Umm... It seems that above average hitters should never bunt here.