Check raised on the turn
 

This guy is 40/20/2. He seems solid:

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (6 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP calls, CO calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP checks, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP folds, CO calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Hero...

Re: Check raised on the turn
 

easy fold against an unknown.

Re: Check raised on the turn
 

he can have KJ of course but there are so many hands you are losing to. add in the rio and i'm folding.

Re: Check raised on the turn
 

i also fold after _betting_ and getting raised.

however, if i know that he will do this with draws sometimes, i check the turn 100% of the time. Yeah you give freecards and that sucks, but imho:

EV from checking and give freecards &gt; EV from betting and folding to a raise.

6 bb is huge, i want to see a showdown here. Also there is not much value in betting the turn. there are not many worse pairs that will call, obvious draws will.

Re: Check raised on the turn
 

in a 6BB pot giving a free card to a 10 outer is _very_ expensive.

Re: Check raised on the turn
 

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in a 6BB pot giving a free card to a 10 outer is _very_ expensive.

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can you make basic assumptions and show some math to prove this statement?

Re: Check raised on the turn
 

Fold.

I would bet the turn too.

Prob has KQ or AQ.

Re: Check raised on the turn
 

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in a 6BB pot giving a free card to a 10 outer is _very_ expensive.

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can you make basic assumptions and show some math to prove this statement?

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i didn't think i was making a controversial statement [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
a 10 outer comes in roughly 1/5. so his equity share in the pot is 1.2BB. if you bet and he calls, his equity share in the new pot is 8/5 = 1.4 BB, but that includes 1BB of the extra money he had to put in, so by charging him to draw you reduce the equity share from 1.2BB to 0.4BB, i.e. giving him a free card costs roughtly .8BB

Re: Check raised on the turn
 

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in a 6BB pot giving a free card to a 10 outer is _very_ expensive.

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can you make basic assumptions and show some math to prove this statement?

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i didn't think i was making a controversial statement [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
a 10 outer comes in roughly 1/5. so his equity share in the pot is 1.2BB. if you bet and he calls, his equity share in the new pot is 8/5 = 1.4 BB, but that includes 1BB of the extra money he had to put in, so by charging him to draw you reduce the equity share from 1.2BB to 0.4BB, i.e. giving him a free card costs roughtly .8BB

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your math needs to take into account the times when he c/r bluffs you out of the pot, and the times when you collect a bluff bet on the river. I don't know how to do this because its late and I'm lazy, but checking behind and calling on a safe river here cant be too horrible against a very aggressive player that will take shots at you on the river.

that being said I prolly still b/f the turn most of the time.

Re: Check raised on the turn
 

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in a 6BB pot giving a free card to a 10 outer is _very_ expensive.

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can you make basic assumptions and show some math to prove this statement?

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i didn't think i was making a controversial statement [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
a 10 outer comes in roughly 1/5. so his equity share in the pot is 1.2BB. if you bet and he calls, his equity share in the new pot is 8/5 = 1.4 BB, but that includes 1BB of the extra money he had to put in, so by charging him to draw you reduce the equity share from 1.2BB to 0.4BB, i.e. giving him a free card costs roughtly .8BB

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yeah sorry but this math is [censored].

you are absolut ignoring the factor bluffing on the river, hell maybe he will valuebet 22 vs Ak ...

Re: Check raised on the turn
 

you misunderstood what i was trying to calculate. i only calculated the cost of the free card, which should be balanced with the value of inducing bluffs, cost of folding to the check/raise etc. etc.

in other words, my point is that to prove this statement:

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EV from checking and give freecards &gt; EV from betting and folding to a raise.


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you have to show how the cost of betting and folding to a raise overcomes a pretty heavy cost associated with giving a free card, for which i provided an approximate estimate.

Re: Check raised on the turn
 

what the heck is going on in this thread! Obviously if you knew your oppponent had a draw you would bet and it's not close. sheesh!

If you don't know what to do when raised then hopefully that means it's close which means he's only bluffing ~ 1/5 of the times he c/r's. So if he c/r's like 1/5 of the time then you lose 1/25th of the pot when he c/r's which is about .45 bb after you factor in the 2 outs you give up.

*Highly* doubt he has
-a worse hand
-that would have correctly folded turn
-that misses the river
-AND bluffs

enough to make up the other .35 bb.

I guessed on most of the numbers in this post cuz I knew it wouldn't be close.

Re: Check raised on the turn
 

This is an awful bluff card for the villain after the strength you have shown in this hand...If he pulled a bluff more power to him...but at these limits...its better to just fold and move on. Most at these low levels cant pull off all these marginal bluffs.

Re: Check raised on the turn
 

Two overs that hit alot of your AQ, KQ, AT combos makes me fold this.

Re: Check raised on the turn
 

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i didn't think i was making a controversial statement [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
a 10 outer comes in roughly 1/5. so his equity share in the pot is 1.2BB. if you bet and he calls, his equity share in the new pot is 8/5 = 1.4 BB, but that includes 1BB of the extra money he had to put in, so by charging him to draw you reduce the equity share from 1.2BB to 0.4BB, i.e. giving him a free card costs roughtly .8BB

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AK/AJ have 10 outs against 44 cards.

(34/44 * 2) - 1 = 0.55 BB

That's the cost of not betting the turn assuming he calls and ignoring the river action.

In practice betting the turn against AK/AJ won't really work against most opponents. Cases:

1. Villain bluff checkraises. You lose the pot while checking would have preserved your equity.

2. Villain calls, a third Broadway hits the river, and you lose. Betting has lost a bet because the river is now a clear fold even if you didn't bet the turn.

3. Villain calls and busts on the river. Maybe you take the free showdown here and even if you don't he isn't likely to payoff on a third barrel. Whereas after checking the turn you'll usually win a bet by inducing a bluff or through a curiosity call.

Cases 1 and 2 heavily favor checking the turn versus AK/AJ while in case 3 the check usually breaks even.

Betting into the 14-outer KJ gains 0.36 BB if he calls and would not have bluffed the river. If he would have bluffed the river then betting accomplishes nothing and loses an extra bet versus A/K/J river (ten outs, -0.23 BB). Betting and getting checkraised bluffed costs about 4.8 BB. So if Villain is at all aggressive betting into KJ is a disaster.

Naturally there is nothing to be said in favor of betting into a better hand and you will often lose an extra bet or your spike outs.

You will gain a bet by betting the turn and river against a smaller pair such as 66, 44, or A7.

Overall the turn bet seems really bad. The decisive factor compared to many similar deals is the two small Broadways on board. Unlike the typical turn value check you don't have to payoff this river when another Broadway hits. Your hand is almost never good and when it is good you'll get a free showdown because it appears you just hit your hand.

Re: Check raised on the turn
 

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in a 6BB pot giving a free card to a 10 outer is _very_ expensive.

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can you make basic assumptions and show some math to prove this statement?

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i didn't think i was making a controversial statement [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
a 10 outer comes in roughly 1/5. so his equity share in the pot is 1.2BB. if you bet and he calls, his equity share in the new pot is 8/5 = 1.4 BB, but that includes 1BB of the extra money he had to put in, so by charging him to draw you reduce the equity share from 1.2BB to 0.4BB, i.e. giving him a free card costs roughtly .8BB

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read stellar's post above, but i wanted a bit more than this. he's gonna have J9/KJ here a decent amount and you're going to fold the best hand, which is devastatingly worse than giving a free card to a hand like AK/AJ that will give you a bet on the river unimproved anyway.

Re: Check raised on the turn
 

So value check against the LAGTAG here? This seems like a common spot. Does anything change if the card is an A or K?

Re: Check raised on the turn
 

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in a 6BB pot giving a free card to a 10 outer is _very_ expensive.

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can you make basic assumptions and show some math to prove this statement?

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i didn't think i was making a controversial statement [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
a 10 outer comes in roughly 1/5. so his equity share in the pot is 1.2BB. if you bet and he calls, his equity share in the new pot is 8/5 = 1.4 BB, but that includes 1BB of the extra money he had to put in, so by charging him to draw you reduce the equity share from 1.2BB to 0.4BB, i.e. giving him a free card costs roughtly .8BB

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read stellar's post above, but i wanted a bit more than this. he's gonna have J9/KJ here a decent amount and you're going to fold the best hand, which is devastatingly worse than giving a free card to a hand like AK/AJ that will give you a bet on the river unimproved anyway.

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miles, see my post above. if folding the turn to a c/r is breakeven, it is not *that* expensive. It costs less than .5 bb.

Re: Check raised on the turn
 

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miles, see my post above. if folding the turn to a c/r is breakeven, it is not *that* expensive. It costs less than .5 bb.

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Actually it is less than 1 BB. Many correct folds cost more than 0.5 BB.

Strictly speaking, a fold is correct if your EV after calling would be less than or equal to the price to call. This assumes raising is not a better option. A fold can be better than calling but still incorrect.

By the cost of a fold I mean the cost relative to not having to face a bet. In essence this is the penalty for allowing yourself to be bet off your hand when you could have avoided it. Your EV after calling a bet includes your share of the money you just called with.

Typical example: The pot is 8 BB and your winning chances are 10% if your opponent checks instead of betting (or calls instead of raising). Your EV is 0.8 BB. If instead your opponent bets 1 BB then you can call and create a 10 BB pot with EV of 1 BB. Or you can fold and keep your 1 BB. It's breakeven and whatever you do you've lost 0.8 BB compared to getting a free card.

The value 0.8 BB depends on the pot size. As the pot gets very large the cost of a breakeven fold approaches 1 BB. Redo the example with a 98 BB pot and a 1% winning chance if you don't understand what I mean.

When betting the river from the button, a popular analysis error is to ignore bluff checkraises because "it's correct to fold". It may be correct but it isn't free. Any pots lost to bluff checkraises reduce the EV of a value bet. The fact that you don't have pot odds to call the raise is completely beside the point.

Re: Check raised on the turn
 

stellar,
in general i agree with much of what you wrote. i also think iwas too hasty in hypothesizing that betting was correct and it wasn't close. Much more careful analysis is needed, imo. We need to consider each hand in his range and we need to agree on a reasonable range (for instance, mist 40/20's i know will cap pf with AK/AQ most of the time and will at least peel the flop with any overcard + bd draw, two overcards, str8 draws, and pairs.

However, I think that folding to a c/r in this spot (assuming we are indifferent) is less than .5 bb mistake. Please verify whether my reasoning makes any sense:

he is offering us ~ 5:1 on the calldown so if we are unsure of what to do then it must be because he has roughly 4 made hands for every 1 draw. So if we assume he c/r's 1/5 of his range here (debateable) then he will have bluffed us off the best hand only 1/25 times. Multiply that by the size of the pot and fudge with the numbers a bit to reflect the outs we give up/the outs he has when behind, and i think you get that it is less than a .5 bb fold.

Now it is interesting to figure how much we can make up on the river by under-repping our hand on the turn. Maybe when I have more time I will work this out.

Re: Check raised on the turn
 

vma and stellar - you calculate two different things, that's why the answers don't match.

vma's calculation is the cost against his whole range, stellar's calculation is the cost given the knowledge that he c/r'ed.

stellar is also correct in saying that the cost of giving a free card to a 10outer is 0.55 and not 0.8 as i wrote before. i made a stupid mistake thinking that 8/5=1.4.

however, other elements of stellar's analysis are debatable imo.

1. in your analysis for AJ/AK:
- he shouldn't have AK very often based on preflop
- he rarely check-raises AJ against a pf 3-bettor, who's probably more likely to reraise and charge than to fold in this large pot.
- i think you really overestimate how often we get a bet out of AJ on the river. he shouldn't be value-bluffing us because he should know we'll call, and he shouldn't c/c because he should know that we don't have any hands in our range to bluff with.

2. in your analysis for KJ:
- you are right that we lose a lot against this great semi-bluffing hand.
- however, just to keep it perspective, KJ is about 1/13 of his range on the turn
- most importantly though, while incorporating of dealing with the cost of bluffs on the turn, you do not incorporate a similar cost of dealing with bluffs on the river if we check (not necessarily against KJ but against other parts of his range). the point is: in both lines his bluffs always carry a cost.

3. betting into a better hand isn't too bad at all. you usually lose nothing and occasionally lose a chance for your 2 outs if he c/r.

4. a lot of marginal weak hands (44,66,A7,A5s) will call a bet now but you won't get a bet out of them on the river when certain cards fall, OR you will be too scared to bet yourself, OR they will bluff you out on certain cards.

5. in addition to 10 outers, he has some 6-outers in his range (A9,A8s), against which giving a free card is substantially more expensive.

overall, it's very unlikely that the turn bet is really bad. i have a feeling that good players whose videos i've seen routinely b/f in similar spots. examples of a typical free card play in stox's book feature much worse situations (like 3 overcards). but i'm not at all dismissing the possibility that checking is slightly better.

Re: Check raised on the turn
 

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i think you really overestimate how often we get a bet out of AJ on the river. he shouldn't be value-bluffing us because he should know we'll call, and he shouldn't c/c because he should know that we don't have any hands in our range to bluff with.

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i think a good assumption for how often he c/c river ui with AJ is 100%

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- most importantly though, while incorporating of dealing with the cost of bluffs on the turn, you do not incorporate a similar cost of dealing with bluffs on the river if we check (not necessarily against KJ but against other parts of his range). the point is: in both lines his bluffs always carry a cost.

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you fold a river J K or A and assume that he hand reads just a little and he should ~never be bluffing a worse hand on one of these cards.

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3. betting into a better hand isn't too bad at all. you usually lose nothing and occasionally lose a chance for your 2 outs if he c/r.

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Qx gets c/red very often and he rarely has Tx, so betting into a better hand often gives up the chance at 2-outing him - not just occassionally

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a lot of marginal weak hands (44,66,A7,A5s) will call a bet now but you won't get a bet out of them on the river when certain cards fall, OR you will be too scared to bet yourself, OR they will bluff you out on certain cards.

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again read my comment above about J/K/A rivers. if he hand reads at all your hand looks just like AK/AJ and that is way too many combos to attempt bluffing if he does actually fold 44/66/A7/A5s (which again is not many combos on its own). they also basically all call river bets on blanks.


honestly when i first posted in this thread i just wanted you to show some rough math (i wasn't convinced myself). then stellarwind posted and got me thinking about it more, and i think he's right. too bad i'm too lazy to really run a bunch of numbers.

Re: Check raised on the turn
 

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3. betting into a better hand isn't too bad at all. you usually lose nothing and occasionally lose a chance for your 2 outs if he c/r.

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Betting into a better hand is expensive.

1. Villain checkraises: You lose two outs. That's roughly -1/3 BB.

2. Villain calls: You lose a bet every time the river is A/K/J. That's roughly -1/4 BB.

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4. a lot of marginal weak hands (44,66,A7,A5s) will call a bet now but you won't get a bet out of them on the river when certain cards fall, OR you will be too scared to bet yourself, OR they will bluff you out on certain cards.

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An important element of the turn check is that Hero is representing AK/AJ. They are pretty much the classic hands for 3-betting preflop and then wimping out on this board.

When the river comes A/K/J we are prepared to fold in part because our hand is rarely good, but primarily because our opponent will not think of bluffing. He expects us to have just improved to Broadway or some big split pair and betting 44 or 98s looks like just a waste of money.

On any other river card Villain may indeed bluff but then I call and get paid. Or he checks and I bet my hand. Now he is getting 7-1 and folding 44 is very hard because Hero seems to have unimproved overcards. I expect the pair hands to payoff almost all the time.

It is true that I lose a bet when A/K/J hits and I give the little pair a free showdown. All I can say is it doesn't happen very often and it's slightly offset by the occasional bets I save when he has something like A7 and an ace hits.

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2. in your analysis for KJ:
...
- most importantly though, while incorporating of dealing with the cost of bluffs on the turn, you do not incorporate a similar cost of dealing with bluffs on the river if we check ( not necessarily against KJ but against other parts of his range). the point is: in both lines his bluffs always carry a cost.

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We're in great shape against KJ. We fold when he hits and pick off his bluffs when he whiffs. Calling a nine is our only error.

Moving onto other bluffing hands, incorporating the costs of bluffs is a two-way street. I've already explained why I don't expect to lose much to bluffing. I'm calling almost all the bluffs I actually expect them to make. How about you?

1. Any of those little pair hands or oddball draws could clobber you on the turn with a bluff checkraise. The fact that most of these hands have so few outs makes it even worse. Even if such accidents are quite rare the EV loss involved could easily exceed the small extra profit from value-betting the turn instead of value-betting the river.

2. What happens when Villain calls the turn and bets the river? If you payoff you'll frequently be losing 2BB to his queens and tens plus all the lucky hands he makes on the river. Or you can fold and lose the pot when he has a small pair (the popular value bet-fold) or some busted draw. There is no good answer to this situation. Whatever you do you are going to lose a lot of EV to a problem created by your turn bet.

Betting the turn creates great scope for Villain to make bluffs we aren't prepared to call. That's why I'm harping on it. If Villain were passive and well-controled betting would have a lot more going for it because if he steps out-of-line it's a pretty painless fold.

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i have a feeling that good players whose videos i've seen routinely b/f in similar spots. examples of a typical free card play in stox's book feature much worse situations (like 3 overcards).

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Are they similar or do they just look similar? This hand has many special features. For example 974Qr looks like a very similar board but the analysis would have to change tremendously.

Re: Check raised on the turn
 

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i think you really overestimate how often we get a bet out of AJ on the river. he shouldn't be value-bluffing us because he should know we'll call, and he shouldn't c/c because he should know that we don't have any hands in our range to bluff with.

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i think a good assumption for how often he c/c river ui with AJ is 100%


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Tell me 1 worse hand than AJ that hero could have. and dont tell me A9o, quote from op: co seems solid.Even if A8 or A9 would be in heros range a AJ call is idiotic.

Please get real, in this situation AJ is air, either beat by a better ace or a pair

Re: Check raised on the turn
 

stellar,

you make good points. i'll think about the hand some more but for now i have no choice but to agree that a check is probably better.

Re: Check raised on the turn
 

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i think you really overestimate how often we get a bet out of AJ on the river. he shouldn't be value-bluffing us because he should know we'll call, and he shouldn't c/c because he should know that we don't have any hands in our range to bluff with.

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i think a good assumption for how often he c/c river ui with AJ is 100%


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Tell me 1 worse hand than AJ that hero could have. and dont tell me A9o, quote from op: co seems solid.Even if A8 or A9 would be in heros range a AJ call is idiotic.

Please get real, in this situation AJ is air, either beat by a better ace or a pair

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It doesn't matter that calling with AJ is bad if he'll call with it anyway.

Re: Check raised on the turn
 

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i think you really overestimate how often we get a bet out of AJ on the river. he shouldn't be value-bluffing us because he should know we'll call, and he shouldn't c/c because he should know that we don't have any hands in our range to bluff with.

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i think a good assumption for how often he c/c river ui with AJ is 100%


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Tell me 1 worse hand than AJ that hero could have. and dont tell me A9o, quote from op: co seems solid.Even if A8 or A9 would be in heros range a AJ call is idiotic.

Please get real, in this situation AJ is air, either beat by a better ace or a pair

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It doesn't matter that calling with AJ is bad if he'll call with it anyway.

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