NFL season-long prop
I posted this in my blog a couple days ago. Lines still look available.
NFL Interceptions prop bets I found some year-long prop bets in the NFL that I think have edge. The props were on the total interceptions made by each team's defense. I bet the Under on 17 different teams (listed below). The limits are low, but they add up over 17 different bets that represent the same idea. Taking the shotgun approach, I bet the under on any total of 16.5 or higher. Here's my rationale: Over the last 4 years (2002-2006), the average number of INTs made was 15.85, with the median at 15. For the 32 teams over the last 4 seasons (128 total teams), if the total was 16.5, the Under won 77 times and lost 51. For a winning percentage of 60.2% or about -150. The initial question is: "So what? You need to take into account the good defenses as they are likely to have higher INT totals." And I did that. I took teams with 18 or more INTs and compared how they did in the next year versus a total of less than 3.5 INTs, but with a minimum of 16.5. For example, if BAL had 20 INTs in 2003, then I would look how BAL did versus a total of 16.5 in 2004. The total record against a total of 3.5 fewer INTs the following year, but no lower than 16.5, was 7-20. Next, I ran correlation numbers. Using 2003-2005 INT numbers and correlating it to 2004-2006 INT numbers for the same teams. The correlation was a paltry 0.02. This along may be enough reason to bet Under on high totals. To top it off, the 17 teams that I bet, which all had totals of 16.5 or greater, had an average number of INTs fewer last year than the total. The average line I bet into was 18.5. The teams that I wagered Under on averaged 17.6 interceptions last year. Here are the wagers: ATL U17 -120 BAL U21.5 -115 CAR U18.5 -115 CHI U22.5 -115 CIN U20 -135 DAL U17 -115 DEN U18.5 -120 GB U18 -120 IND U18 -135 JAX U17.5 -115 MIN U20 -115 NE U20 -120 NYJ U18 -120 PHI U17.5 -115 PIT U18 -115 SD U16.5 -115 STL U16.5 -120 |
Re: NFL season-long prop
good luck sir i hope you're right
and for anyone who wants to evenly distribute their funds to each prop, remember to only divide by 16, since the colts are off the board. |
Re: NFL season-long prop
where did u find those lines
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Re: NFL season-long prop
The Greek
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Re: NFL season-long prop
i hit them, thanx for sharing this Yao.
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Re: NFL season-long prop
curious why you laid off detroit at o/u 15?
they only had 12 last year and lost bly,fletcher and holt who accounted for 9. their #2 pick was S daniel bullocks and he is on IR. the guys that are left aren't exactly ballhawks |
Re: NFL season-long prop
[ QUOTE ]
curious why you laid off detroit at o/u 15? [/ QUOTE ] From the post: [ QUOTE ] I bet the under on any total of 16.5 or higher. [/ QUOTE ] |
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