$114: AT on bubble...to raise or not to raise
 

Big stack is Boku87. For those who don't know, he definitely owns the bubble, and this would be a pretty good spot for him to play back at me if I were to open the pot. What do you guys do here? Just open fold, or raise/fold (to Boku's push)? I'm guessing no one is raise/calling a shove, right?


PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

CO (t1355)
Hero (t3700)
SB (t7315)
BB (t1130)

Preflop: Hero is in Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">CO folds</font>, Hero?</font>

Re: $114: AT on bubble...to raise or not to raise
 

I raise to 600-800. You have to. Ace Hi on the btn for sure.

Re: $114: AT on bubble...to raise or not to raise
 

Raise 550 - call a shove by BB - fold a shove by SB.
If called just play poker.


PS by deciding beforehand what to do if opponents play back makes it easier to play poker.

Re: $114: AT on bubble...to raise or not to raise
 

Moves
-----
a) fold; SB folds.
b) push and win against BB
c) push and lose against BB
d) push and win against SB
e) push and lose against SB
f) push and pick up blinds
g) raise 3BB; fold to SB-push
h) raise 3BB; call BB-push
i) raise 3BB; pick up blinds


EV(ICM)
-------
a) 0.2996
b) 0.3556
c) 0.2407
d) 0.3972
e) 0.0000
f) 0.3139
g) 0.2873
h) like b&amp;C
i) like f


Assumptations
-------------
BB would call you with {66+,A7s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KQo} for about 15% of the time -&gt; 43:57 underdog.
SB would call you with {TT+,ATs+,KQs,AQo+,KQo} for about 10% of the time -&gt; 34:66 underdog.
Let's say both would push the 3BB-bet from you with those hands above too and you call the BB, but fold to the SB.


Total EV(ICM)
-------------
EV(push): 0.2912 (=0.75*0.3139+0.15*[0.43*0.3556+0.57*0.2407]+0.10*[0.34*0.3972+0.66*0.000])
EV(fold): 0.2996
EV(r3BB): 0.3063 (=0.75*0.3139+0.15*[0.43*0.3556+0.57*0.2407]+0.10*0.2873)




With those assumptations above a normal bet (3BB) gives the most value. But if you are feeling you have to push-or-fold, you should fold.

Re: $114: AT on bubble...to raise or not to raise
 

Given your description of your Main competitor, you will have to fold. He should know that you cannot call with AK or JJ (maybe even QQ), therefor he will most certainly try to lower your stack by pushing you of the hand.

Re: $114: AT on bubble...to raise or not to raise
 

Just fold he will shove on you all day.

Re: $114: AT on bubble...to raise or not to raise
 

[ QUOTE ]
Given your description of your Main competitor, you will have to fold. He should know that you cannot call with AK or JJ (maybe even QQ), therefor he will most certainly try to lower your stack by pushing you of the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm definitely raising and calling anyone's push with 99+ and AK. Folding QQ/JJ here is really bad IMO.

Re: $114: AT on bubble...to raise or not to raise
 

[ QUOTE ]
Just fold he will shove on you all day.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: $114: AT on bubble...to raise or not to raise
 

Yah. the blinds aren't to rediculous at the moment. and a hit from BB will set you back on your arse a bit. atleast it will have you semi-scrounging to pick up pots and every pot you try to pick up will likely have you raising through the SB soo..... doesn't sound like much fun. Save chips and let the rich bully the poor - your middle class baby you got no say.

Re: $114: AT on bubble...to raise or not to raise
 

i feel like boku is the type of multi tabler that could overlook a spot like this with playing a ton of different sngs and what not (i play mtts with him so i know he mixes), so i dont hate an open/fold but assuming thats not a huge factor it looks like you can just fold this spot.