What is the possibility he\'s holding the T?
 

62.86/1.77/
Flop agg: 0.65
Trun agg: 1.14
River agg: 3.33

Full Tilt 0.25/0.5 Hold'em (8 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, UTG calls, CO calls.

Turn: (5 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, CO calls.

River: (8 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Hero fold or call?

My most feared card falls on the river... How am I suppose to assess the liklihood of him holding a Tx?

Would a bet/fold be a better action?

Re: What is the possibility he\'s holding the T?
 

raise preflop
given that you didn't, bet the flop
river is a crying call.

Re: What is the possibility he\'s holding the T?
 

:g:
If you intend to fold to a raise, I would prefer to c/c. You are going to miss out a fraction of a bet the times you are ahead and everyone checks behind you. But that mistake will be compensated for to some extent by inducing a bluff or a 'value' bet by UTG.

If you ever fold incorrectly in spots like this it will be devastating for your winrate. and if you often bet fold here, people will start bluffing. The great thing about the c/c is that it comes with a wonderful meta game message that will force people to play straight forward against you.

I'm not calling 2 back.

I think the order is something like c/c&gt;b/f&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;b/c

[i] edit do say, the possibility is 0.98

Re: What is the possibility he\'s holding the T?
 

grunch

Betting the flop is &gt; c/r because you're not sure anyone is going to bet.
Betting was good on the river, I don't think you can fold to the raise. If he had 10 x [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] there is nothing you can do.

Re: What is the possibility he\'s holding the T?
 

Call the raise, he rivers a worse 2 pair enough times to make this profitable.

Re: What is the possibility he\'s holding the T?
 

[ QUOTE ]
:g:
If you intend to fold to a raise, I would prefer to c/c. You are going to miss out a fraction of a bet the times you are ahead and everyone checks behind you. But that mistake will be compensated for to some extent by inducing a bluff or a 'value' bet by UTG.

If you ever fold incorrectly in spots like this it will be devastating for your winrate. and if you often bet fold here, people will start bluffing. The great thing about the c/c is that it comes with a wonderful meta game message that will force people to play straight forward against you.

I'm not calling 2 back.

I think the order is something like c/c&gt;b/f&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;b/c

[i] edit do say, the possibility is 0.98

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup, I think c/c is a good choice. I've always got some difficulty trying to understand how do I choose between c/c, b/f and b/c, especially when I'm OOP. I know this has gotta do with understanding your opponent, the range he's holding and the percentage that I'm confident my hand will win.

"The great thing about the c/c is that it comes with a wonderful meta game message that will force people to play straight forward against you." thanks, I will keep this in mind.

Re: What is the possibility he\'s holding the T?
 

[ QUOTE ]
raise preflop
given that you didn't, bet the flop
river is a crying call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I chose not to raise preflop cos totally OOP, and I wana see what the flop brings. If i'm holding JAs, maybe I will.

Re: What is the possibility he\'s holding the T?
 

Hmm, you arent actually supposed to pay any attention to what I post... but here is a great post on the subject that got me straightened out a bit.

Check out Shillx post, yo

[i]edit, it doesnt really apply at all, but its still a great post [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: What is the possibility he\'s holding the T?
 

I raise pf mostly nowadays. Depends some on how nitty UTG is.

Probably lead the flop. A check may be ok for variation or if opps bets almost all flops.

River: I think you have to bet. There are many hands that will pay you off such as two pairs and weaker aces. If you check they will probably only bet when you are beaten. I don't think this is a good board for inducing a bluff, since opps will often have something worth showing down.

I if it's two back I fold. Given villains high river AF and the fact he seems a bit weird I think we must pay him off.

Re: What is the possibility he\'s holding the T?
 

Raise preflop. Not close

Bet flop. Not close either unless you have a read that someone ALWAYS bets flops.


Bet river. Not close either. You have to bet to get value from Ax and worse two pair hands.

Puke when he raises and figure out whether he can have a T. In this spot it seems reasonable that he has a T and I fold.