Variance
 

A winning regular in the Stars higher stakes game claimed to have had 450bb downswings each of the past two months. Each time he was playing his A+ game throughout. He also hinted that he believes 1200bb downswings such as BK's are possible for winning players.

This is very scary for me. My biggest ever downswing is about 270bb. A decent amount of that was tilt. So it would be about 240 or so without excess tilt, at a guess. For that to happen it was insane beats, hand after hand after hand, just unreal. So a 450bb downswing would be all that insanity, followed by the same insanity over again, with baring a comeback in between. It just seems so unlikely.

Part of the reason my swings havent been so severe is because I have a big edge, my lifetime rate is more than 2bb/100. While I think that winrate might be possible at 100/200, I am not good enough right now to achieve it. So with lower edge, and more aggro games, one can expect bigger downswings. But 450bb still seems ridiculous, and if you look at the math, it should be incredibly uncommon for a winning player.

I know another player who has been playing high stakes for a couple of years now and his biggest ds is about 250bb, which seems much more reasonable.

So please either soothe my fears or let me know what I am in for, as a 450bb downswing would make me go crazy.

Re: Variance
 

Without actually doing the math behind it (I'm sure the math has been beaten to the death on this anyway) - I think the isolated cases you're bringing up is exactly that - isolated instances/statistical flukes.

There are a lot of people playing poker. Even among the high stakes regular, there is still a good # of people. For 1 or 2 or even 5 of them to have gigantic swings (especially with short handed the mainstream game now) would be the exception and not the rule - yet at the same time not surprising.

I think a lot of people also underestimate the combined negative impact of tilt AND running bad. Also - it's not too difficult to spot tilt and most of the time this also allows your opponent to adjust easier to you and oftentimes play more correctly against you. I think these three elements tend to make big bad swings worse. I also don't necessarily buy the theory that someone going through a tremendous downswing is always on their A+ game. They may think it doesn't effect them - but intrinsically it does. The level of effectness may not be visible but it's there. By the time you realize it's effecting you it's already monkey tilting.

Remember if it's probable it's possible. While I am surprised to see 450BB downswings or whatever, the fact that it happens doesn't affect my mentality on variance.

I think the majority of us fall under statistical norm, and a small subset falls under first order of standard deviation, and a further smaller subset falls under second order of standard deviation... and so on.

Sounds normal to me.

For what it's worth I'm also 2+BB/100 (mostly in 100/200 albeit most of that data is from PartyPoker) over the past two years - and I don't recall ever going through a bigger than 200ishBB downswing. I may just be the luckiest whiner alive, though.

~andy

Re: Variance
 

You are saying your winrate is why you have not had a big downswing. But it is also that your winrate is high because of not having a big downswing and the long break-even stretch that ensues.

Re: Variance
 

My biggest is 300BB (though only at mid-stakes) but I am certain bigger can happen. After my 93BB in 140 hands yesterday in which I played great, I'm open to anything!

If you can have a 300BB ds, then of course you CAN have 400, 500 etc. I remember Stox had over 400BB recently. Just hope this evil never points it's finger in your direction!

Re: Variance
 

Dean,

I think it's likely that your source of this information is having these swings for a number of reasons. These are all just from my experience in poker and these games specifically.

1. He's playing a lot of hands in a very tough game.
2. He's probably not exercising the best game selection.
3. It's possible that he's chasing losses and even staying in bad games to chase them, thus dramatically increasing his variance.
4. Obviously he's playing tons of shorthanded. I don't know if that's what you play, but it does play a big role. Is he playing HU?

I don't know really. Maybe I've run well, but I've never had the kind of variance I hear about people on here having. Then again I probably don't win quite as much as the big winners in that 2/4. I don't play as much either. It's partly because I'm lazy, but the main reason is that I refuse to play in a bad game in the Stars 2/4. On occasion I've found myself chasing losses in bad games and surprise surprise, those are the nights where I lose 20-25k 1 or 2 tabling.

Just some thoughts. Don't worry yourself so much. Just practice good game selection, get to know your players, and don't play when you're feeling like you're just playing to get the money back.

Re: Variance
 

Does anyone else think it highly unlikely he was playing his A+ game over the full 450bb ds? IIRC he said it happened over 4 or so days.

Reasons I'm skeptical

i) It's pretty [censored] hard to play your A+ consistently over 4 days in any circumstance

ii) Not sure I know many players who would continue to play A+ when going thru such a drop. Not sure I can name any, actually.

Re: Variance
 

Dean you basically answered you own question in your post.

Re: Variance
 

[ QUOTE ]
He also hinted that he believes 1200bb downswings such as BK's are possible for winning players

[/ QUOTE ]

If I lost 48K at 20-40 I'd look in the mirror and say "You're not a 20-40 player. You're an idiot." I may be one anyway, but that's besides the point.

I'd come to the same conclusion constantly playing short, like mostly 3-4 and max 5 handed, even with the sick amount of variance.

1200 BB's. Imagine starting with a BR of 600 BB's, re-loading and losing that. Or a BR of 400 BB's, re-loading twice and losing that. Think about it. That's not a downswing. It's denial.

Re: Variance
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He also hinted that he believes 1200bb downswings such as BK's are possible for winning players

[/ QUOTE ]

If I lost 48K at 20-40 I'd look in the mirror and say "You're not a 20-40 player. You're an idiot." I may be one anyway, but that's besides the point.

I'd come to the same conclusion constantly playing short, like mostly 3-4 and max 5 handed, even with the sick amount of variance.

1200 BB's. Imagine starting with a BR of 600 BB's, re-loading and losing that. Or a BR of 400 BB's, re-loading twice and losing that. Think about it. That's not a downswing. It's denial.

[/ QUOTE ]

What if your name is BicycleKick and you've got over a million hands and dollars that say you're a great player?

Re: Variance
 

Im sure bk used to play great, but Im skeptical he has done so over the past few months. I believe Josh_W never posted his online screennames despite my urging -- I dont see why he would need to keep his party name secret anymore -- Id love to hear what people thought of his play, Im guessing not much.