Guess how many pages JaredL\'s paper will be on November 15th
 

Obviously I haven't been around all that much lately. It's because I've actually been working on my research to hopefully finish grad school.

Currently working on what will become the main paper in my dissertation. These days dissertations consist of 3 "chapters" which are really just 3 separate papers. The title of the current project is "Persuasion With Stochastic Signal Quantity."

To bring the two things together, let's play a game. Your task is to guess how many pages it will be on November 15th. November 15th is important as it's a month from now and also because I'll send the paper out in applications for a few jobs. Those applications are in late November and early December and I would like to have it pretty polished by then.

Here is some info that will be helpful:
- The paper is currently at 42 pages.
- I gave a talk last week in my department on the paper and from suggestions am adding 2 subsections and a little bit here and there to what I already have. The additions will consist of a few graphs.
- I have not begun working on the conclusion. I expect this to be anywhere from 2-5 pages by itself.
- I have not written the works cited yet.
- I am talking to one of my advisers tomorrow about the paper. That could involve adding or removing some stuff and will certainly involve rewriting stuff.
- I am giving a talk on this paper at a conference in the first week of November. This will probably give me some more suggestions, but since I won't have much time to add to the paper it'll be difficult to put them in.

Game Rules:
You may only have one guess at a time. You may change your guess, but you lose the old one. Guesses should be in 1/2 page increments. One person per number, first come-first served. Closest at the end wins, no price-is-right business here. I will provide periodic updates at random times.

gogogogogogogogogo

Re: Guess how many pages JaredL\'s paper will be on November 15th
 

99.5

Re: Guess how many pages JaredL\'s paper will be on November 15th
 

99.6

Re: Guess how many pages JaredL\'s paper will be on November 15th
 

[ QUOTE ]
99.5

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
99.5

[/ QUOTE ]
$1

Re: Guess how many pages JaredL\'s paper will be on November 15th
 

78 pages.

Re: Guess how many pages JaredL\'s paper will be on November 15th
 

2000. (subject to change). [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Guess how many pages JaredL\'s paper will be on November 15th
 

Wow that few for a PHD?
Sick

Re: Guess how many pages JaredL\'s paper will be on November 15th
 

[ QUOTE ]

- I have not written the works cited yet.

[/ QUOTE ]
well, I hope someone has.

Re: Guess how many pages JaredL\'s paper will be on November 15th
 

[ QUOTE ]
- The paper is currently at 42 pages.

[/ QUOTE ]


38 pages

Re: Guess how many pages JaredL\'s paper will be on November 15th
 

I think a better game would be "How many pages would it take to explain Stochastic Signal Quantity to a retard like me?"

Re: Guess how many pages JaredL\'s paper will be on November 15th
 

Also - 52

Re: Guess how many pages JaredL\'s paper will be on November 15th
 

49

Re: Guess how many pages JaredL\'s paper will be on November 15th
 

60

Re: Guess how many pages JaredL\'s paper will be on November 15th
 

85

Re: Guess how many pages JaredL\'s paper will be on November 15th
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

- I have not written the works cited yet.

[/ QUOTE ]
well, I hope someone has.

[/ QUOTE ]

8

Re: Guess how many pages JaredL\'s paper will be on November 15th
 

69.5

Re: Guess how many pages JaredL\'s paper will be on November 15th
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

- I have not written the works cited yet.

[/ QUOTE ]
well, I hope someone has.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see what you're saying but it's not bad. In the intro I go over work that has been done on the topic in some detail. I know all of the papers I will be citing, I just haven't written up the citations.

Re: Guess how many pages JaredL\'s paper will be on November 15th
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

- I have not written the works cited yet.

[/ QUOTE ]
well, I hope someone has.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see what you're saying but it's not bad. In the intro I go over work that has been done on the topic in some detail. I know all of the papers I will be citing, I just haven't written up the citations.

[/ QUOTE ]

Level?

Re: Guess how many pages JaredL\'s paper will be on November 15th
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think a better game would be "How many pages would it take to explain Stochastic Signal Quantity to a retard like me?"

[/ QUOTE ]

You have some signals. The amount of these signals that you have is randomly determined.

Done.

Re: Guess how many pages JaredL\'s paper will be on November 15th
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

- I have not written the works cited yet.

[/ QUOTE ]
well, I hope someone has.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see what you're saying but it's not bad. In the intro I go over work that has been done on the topic in some detail. I know all of the papers I will be citing, I just haven't written up the citations.

[/ QUOTE ]

Level?

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

Apparently I did not "see what [he was] saying"

Re: Guess how many pages JaredL\'s paper will be on November 15th
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think a better game would be "How many pages would it take to explain Stochastic Signal Quantity to a retard like me?"

[/ QUOTE ]

You have some signals. The amount of these signals that you have is randomly determined.

Done.

[/ QUOTE ]
C-

Re: Guess how many pages JaredL\'s paper will be on November 15th
 

71

Re: Guess how many pages JaredL\'s paper will be on November 15th
 

[ QUOTE ]
Guess how many hairs are on JaredL's head

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Re: Guess how many pages JaredL\'s paper will be on November 15th
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

- I have not written the works cited yet.

[/ QUOTE ]
well, I hope someone has.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see what you're saying but it's not bad. In the intro I go over work that has been done on the topic in some detail. I know all of the papers I will be citing, I just haven't written up the citations.

[/ QUOTE ]

Level?

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

Apparently I did not "see what [he was] saying"

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, just got it.

I mean, just joking back there. I was totally leveling.

Re: Guess how many pages JaredL\'s paper will be on November 15th
 

What the hell is "Persuasion With Stochastic Signal Quantity"

(just a quick paragraph, not a dissertation please)

Re: Guess how many pages JaredL\'s paper will be on November 15th
 

[ QUOTE ]
What the hell is "Persuasion With Stochastic Signal Quantity"

(just a quick paragraph, not a dissertation please)

[/ QUOTE ]

Since we're in POG I'll start with the game I analyze.

I have one or two signals of quality. You don't know which. Each signal is a random number between zero and one. My quality is the average of my signals if I have two and the value of my signal if I have one. I can choose to reveal all, some, or none of my signals to you. This disclosure is honest. After I have revealed my signals, you have to guess my quality. The persuasion comes in because I want you to guess as high as possible (I'm trying to persuade you that I'm a good guy). You want to guess as closely as possible to my true quality.

This models firm behavior in situations where they have a variety of data and may or may not reveal it to investors. Investors not only don't have the information, but they don't know how much is out there.

Re: Guess how many pages JaredL\'s paper will be on November 15th
 

I forgot about this thread.

Final came in at just past 39 pages. I added some stuff, but reworked some other stuff so it went shorter.

MDoranD takes it down!