It\'s Been A Whlie : 98s in CO
 

Online 10/20. Game is 8-handed.

UTG limps. He's loose and passive PF, but plays pretty normal postflop. Two folds to an unknown MP who limps. Folded to me with 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and I raise. TAG button folds, loose/bad SB folds, typical BB calls, limpers call.

Flop comes: J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

BB bets, UTG raises, MP calls.

Re: It\'s Been A Whlie : 98s in CO
 

Egad. I think you're getting just enough to peel the flop. But doesn't that make the pot big enough to call on the turn with just the gutshot? So you're essentially making a two BB decision here. Spots like this make me want to put my head through a wall.

Fold preflop?

Re: It\'s Been A Whlie : 98s in CO
 

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Fold preflop?

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lol? no way i fold pf. if this fold is something from some book that says "you need 5 limpers to play suited connectors" throw that book away, its worthless.

raise is iffy though. i think a limp is better.


Flop: I call but its very close. if someone has a big hand (seems likely if 3 people are staying on a board this dry) then you have great implied odds. the bad part is you arent closing the action, and the BB has led into the field which is sometimes indicative of a big hand.

i think i call and hope.

ps who is the chick in your avatar?

Re: It\'s Been A Whlie : 98s in CO
 

My first instinct was to 3bet with the intention of taking a free card, assuming we are not folding (I think we get enough in implied odds to continue with ~5 outs to a well disguised winner). But it's been so long since I played 10/20 that I'm really not sure if that's a), gonna work often, or b), if coldcalling & looking like you're setting up a turn raise is just as likely to get you a free card chance. I also don't like the possibility of knocking out one or two opponents with that flop 3bet when we're almost certainly going to win the hand if we hit our outs.

So, upon a little more reflection, call two.

Re: It\'s Been A Whlie : 98s in CO
 

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ps who is the chick in your avatar?

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img169.imageshack.us/img169/3941/jojoavvb1.gif

Re: It\'s Been A Whlie : 98s in CO
 

[ QUOTE ]
Fold preflop?

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No. 45s sure, 98s has pair value and against a loose limper and someone who didn't try to iso the loose limper flopping just an 8 or a 9 will frequently be plenty. Of course if the blinds come along we'll be in a 4+handed pot at which point we're profitable on draw value alone. I do like a limp better than a raise though.

I wanted to fold the flop at first for fear of a 3bet wrecking our odds but then I realized we have BDFD + position. After some more reflection I think it's a thin call.

Re: It\'s Been A Whlie : 98s in CO
 

3bet was my first reaction and i think i'm sticking to it.

for me, this is influenced by more than just the free card possibility. since this is a nice sized pot and with a draw to the nuts/poss. flush it's in our best interest to continue if we don't hit/pickup more of a draw on the turn.

this becomes more difficult to do if our opponents start to get aggressive on fourth street(it also hurts implied odds). if they're putting in action on this board, they have made hands. a majority of those made hands are one pair type hands(of course the less mathematically likely sets/two pair combos must be accounted for as well).

this means a flop 3bet could very well induce them into a certain amount of submission we wouldn't otherwise see if we coldcall the flop.

keep in mind, it wouldn't need to succeed only in forcing all of your opponents to simply check out of fear. if it could keep an opponent from betting to get raised(say BB) or keep an opponent(say UTG or MP) from raising someone elses bet, we wouuld come out reasonably ahead since on the turn we will often have the odds to draw for one big bet more profitably(and more often) than two.

based on your sort of vague/subjective descriptions i'm making assumptions according to my interpretation. certainly clarification of a specific tendency that i overlooked could change my opinion one way or the other.

btw, do ya think i'm gonna get $20 from your challenge in medium stakes? that last graph you posted showed you had a ways to go in a shrinking time frame.... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: It\'s Been A Whlie : 98s in CO
 

I already told you that I call, but figured I may as well bump this to say that. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Rob

Re: It\'s Been A Whlie : 98s in CO
 

Whassup GOT?

By the way, we need more posts like this, that make me have to think.

Ok, what a fine mess we've got ourselves into here.

If you were closing the action, it would be an easy call. I guess it boils down to what we think the BB is going to do when it gets back to him. I suspect that a huge percentage of the time, in live games, he is going to just call when it gets back to him, so I think we can call here, and if we don't catch a ten, maybe we could be lucky enough to get either the 5 or 6 of diamonds.

Re: It\'s Been A Whlie : 98s in CO
 

Hmmm, I need to think more about a threebet here.

If I am willing to pay two small bets for one card, I should be more than happy to pay three small bets for two cards. Combined with my preflop raise, I think that my chance of getting a freecard here, is probably pretty big if I make the threebet.