JJ facing HUGE overbet
 

Villain is something like 50/2/2. I am 16/15/9. Both over 100 hands or so.

I have abused this guy the last 3 or 4 orbits. We have been involved in at least 6 pots together, with me winning all of them. Only one showdown in that group, and I had top versus his middle pair.

Does he have air enough in this hand to make a call +EV?

Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (4 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Button ($24.65)
Hero ($37)
BB ($32.80)
UTG ($50.85)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $0.75</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, BB calls $2.25, Button folds.

Flop: ($5.75) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $30.3 (All-In)</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $39.55

Re: JJ facing HUGE overbet
 

If villain was 16/15/9 maybe you can call, but not vs 50/2/2. PFR=2 is not 4-betting AK or QQ, and VPIP 50 is calling with tons of hands with Ks or 9s.

Re: JJ facing HUGE overbet
 

betting this flop is no good.

Re: JJ facing HUGE overbet
 

[ QUOTE ]
betting this flop is no good.

[/ QUOTE ]...because villain seems aggro based on what we've seen in the OP (which is very little info)

OP needs to give us more information to determine if betting is not a good idea: if villain has been calling hero down in order to adjust to hero taking pots from him, hero should be betting. if villain is c/raising type, then hero should consider checking behind in this spot.

Re: JJ facing HUGE overbet
 

He had played back at me a couple times. Never reraised pre flop but had CR me once when I had raised his SB from the button. He had been check/calling mostly when I was in position.

But this was BvB so I was first to act. I honestly thought he would call with any two to try and take it away later.

Re: JJ facing HUGE overbet
 

I don't think you can assume he shoves like this with complete air, and there aren't any draws out. So if you're ahead, it's because he's shoving out of retardation with 55 or something. I think a 9 or K is much more likely.

If the board was a little wetter, I'd call.

Also, I don't like your super-small lead. I think you should either bet ~pot (so that he plays straight-forward and calls with A high/smaller pairs), or check/call (so that he fires with air). Betting smallish makes it too easy for him to get creative, and your hand is not one you want to be making tough decisions with.

Re: JJ facing HUGE overbet
 

easy flop fold, I ch flop more than betting

Re: JJ facing HUGE overbet
 

gotta let him have it on this dry of a flop.

Re: JJ facing HUGE overbet
 

[ QUOTE ]
gotta let him have it on this dry of a flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

How does the wetness of the board matter here? Villain has a PFR of 2, that pretty much = AA, KK, QQ and AK...

If the flop were Qd 9s 8s, you would call because he could have AsKs [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]?????

Re: JJ facing HUGE overbet
 

I think this is clear fold,sure he calling your 3bet light so its K/10+,5+ in hes PF 3bet calling range and your call will be -ev