Value Bet vs. donktardamus?
 

Villain is the reason I am at the table and is clocking in at 52/4/1.3. We have tangled a bit and I have been owning him so far. Two or three orbits before the hand in question, this hand happened:

Full Tilt Poker
$2/$4 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
9 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
BB: $103.3
Hero (UTG): $425
UTG+1: $427.20
MP1: $400
MP2: $624.90
MP3: $307.70
CO: $394
BTN: $726
SB: $1030

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($6, 9 players)
Hero calls $4, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $4, MP3 folds, CO folds, BTN folds, SB calls $2, BB checks

<font color="black">Flop:</font> A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($16, 4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $13</font>, MP2 folds, SB calls $13, BB folds

<font color="black">Turn:</font> A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] ($42, 2 players)
<font color="red">SB bets $30</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $100</font>, SB calls $70

<font color="black">River:</font> A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] ($242, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $200</font>, <font color="red">SB raises all in to $915</font>, Hero calls all in for $108
Uncalled bet of $607 returned to SB

<font color="black">Results:</font>
Hero had 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (a full house, Fives full of Jacks) and won $855
SB had 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (three of a kind, Jacks)
Final Pot: $855.00 ($3.00 rake)

Villain's river AF is surprisingly high compared to his AF for other postflop streets (river AF = 7) Given this information and the previous hand, is a value bet on this 3flush board a good idea? My thinking is that it's more than likely that my hand is good, but I would be in a pretty tough spot if I toss out a $200 vb and get c/r ai'd for the rest of villain's stack (which I found very possible due to his fairly tight pfr range, river action on the last hand we tangled, and his river check). Who's in favor of vb'ing here and who checks behind? Reasoning and comments please.

Full Tilt Poker
$2/$4 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
7 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
Hero (BTN): $1304.40
SB: $394
BB: $631.9
UTG: $279.30
UTG+1: $720.40
MP1: $693.80
MP2: $666.20

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($6, 7 players)
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, <font color="red">MP2 raises to $14</font>, Hero calls $14, SB folds, BB calls $10

<font color="black">Flop:</font> 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($44, 3 players)
BB checks, MP2 checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $36</font>, BB folds, MP2 calls $36

<font color="black">Turn:</font> 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] ($116, 2 players)
MP2 checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $90</font>, MP2 calls $90

<font color="black">River:</font> 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]] ($296, 2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero...

Re: Value Bet vs. donktardamus?
 

bet?

Re: Value Bet vs. donktardamus?
 

I'm a low-limit nit, and I'd have to check this. It seems as if he's waiting for you to bet this river. Too much beats you, although you are very easily good. Are you willing to call a check/raise? If not, why bet? (OK, I know it's because it's a value bet, but what would he call a value bet with? Is he really calling you down with one or two pair? If you have that good of a read, by all means bet.)

Re: Value Bet vs. donktardamus?
 

he's not folding 1 or 2 pair. he either calls or shoves. this is where part of the problem lies

Re: Value Bet vs. donktardamus?
 

[ QUOTE ]
he's not folding 1 or 2 pair. he either calls or shoves. this is where part of the problem lies

[/ QUOTE ]

Bet 180-200 call shove obv.

Re: Value Bet vs. donktardamus?
 

[ QUOTE ]
he's not folding 1 or 2 pair. he either calls or shoves. this is where part of the problem lies

[/ QUOTE ]

What 1 or 2 pair does he have? It's hard to assign donks like this a range since they take weird ars lines with hands and peel on the flop like no tomorrow. KK/QQ/TT/AJ? Maybe.

Given history, I don't mind checking behind like a little girl.

Re: Value Bet vs. donktardamus?
 

[ QUOTE ]
donktardamus

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Value Bet vs. donktardamus?
 

bet 175 and fold to a push. i dont think villian is smart enough to get value from a cr. id say that if he shoves- the pot odds youll get won justify a call. but i think that your bet gets called enough to warrant it.

Re: Value Bet vs. donktardamus?
 

[ QUOTE ]
bet 175 and fold to a push. i dont think villian is smart enough to get value from a cr. id say that if he shoves- the pot odds youll get won justify a call. but i think that your bet gets called enough to warrant it.

[/ QUOTE ]

thats the purpose that I posted the first hand for reference. If villain is c/r'ing all in with naked trips on the river there I think he can c/r ai on this river very very light. (especially given the fact that he hates me for taking half of his monthly paycheck already)

Re: Value Bet vs. donktardamus?
 

When you play im before do you saw him chek-calling with flush on turn and chek raisins the river after?