Seriously, WTF is going on here?
 

Come on, I'd have to be capping every street blind for this to make sense. Second graph is last 50K of $3/$6 only. Anyone feeling the urge to lecture me on sample size can move right the [censored] along to the next thread. I will post any other numbers requested and/or blocks of hands if someone wants to do some sort of review.

VPIP: 26%
PFR: 17%
Agg: 2.41
Steal: 28%
Fold SB/steal: 79
Fold BB/steal: 56
WTSD: 36%
Won$@SD: 52%

Assuming the above numbers are reasonable, where should I be looking to find the leaks? This has been the worst year of poker I've ever had online and I need to figure out what the [censored] is wrong.


http://www.tripsixes.com/~tripsixes/WTF.jpg
http://www.tripsixes.com/~tripsixes/WTF36.jpg

SpaceAce

Re: Seriously, WTF is going on here?
 

2/3 structure? If so, I think these stats are a good place to start:

Steal: 28%
Fold SB/steal: 79
Fold BB/steal: 56

In a vacuum they might not be terrible (like say you were 10 tabling or something). Its just they might be indicative of a potentially larger problem--i.e. you are misunderstanding position and antes.

Regardless, I'd take a few days off and play some PLO8 tournaments or something.

Re: Seriously, WTF is going on here?
 

you need to play like way more hands for this to matter, but checking for leaks in your game is ALWAYS smart.

Re: Seriously, WTF is going on here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
2/3 structure? If so, I think these stats are a good place to start:

Steal: 28%
Fold SB/steal: 79
Fold BB/steal: 56

In a vacuum they might not be terrible (like say you were 10 tabling or something). Its just they might be indicative of a potentially larger problem--i.e. you are misunderstanding position and antes.



[/ QUOTE ]

Meaning I am... defending too much? Too rarely? Not stealing enough?

SpaceAce

Re: Seriously, WTF is going on here?
 

Kind of weird, your composite is actually pretty good. If you go through and sort by biggest pots, are you losing a ton of really big pots?

Re: Seriously, WTF is going on here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Kind of weird, your composite is actually pretty good. If you go through and sort by biggest pots, are you losing a ton of really big pots?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll look into that. I know it FEELS like I am losing all the big pots. I get a ton of money in as a huge favorite and BAM, three-outer on the end. I lose tons of huge pots that way then steal the blinds with Aces two or three times. BUT, everyone loses tons of big pots that way, right?

SpaceAce

Re: Seriously, WTF is going on here?
 

2/3 structure + you are a badass 2+2 poker theorist = you should be defending way more and stealing more too.

Re: Seriously, WTF is going on here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
2/3 structure + you are a badass 2+2 poker theorist = you should be defending way more and stealing more too.

[/ QUOTE ]

I should be stealing more than 30% (at $3/$6 I am at 30.3%, significantly lower at $2/$4 for some reason)? Where do you think those numbers should actually be?

SpaceAce

Re: Seriously, WTF is going on here?
 

For some reason, my AtSB and VPIP/PFR are both a few points lower at Party 3/6 than they are at 5/10. You may be happy bumping up the steal to 35 or so, but if your button/CO WR isn't all out of wack, I wouldn't worry about it too much. Right now we're looking for why you're dumping money, not ways to add marginal hands.

Also, this thread is interesting.

Re: Seriously, WTF is going on here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
2/3 structure + you are a badass 2+2 poker theorist = you should be defending way more and stealing more too.

[/ QUOTE ]

I should be stealing more than 30% (at $3/$6 I am at 30.3%, significantly lower at $2/$4 for some reason)? Where do you think those numbers should actually be?

SpaceAce

[/ QUOTE ]

SpaceAce,
First off, I am very sorry about your downswing and didn't intend to come off sounding like a knowitall.

As far as the optimal steal% in a 2/3 structure goes: I'm not sure--it depends on your game/site selection and your postflop style quite a bit anyway. I was just trying to offer a place to look. Obviously its difficult to figure out precisely what leaks to plug from those stats.
Good luck!