50NL: AQs in BB
 

I've been 3betting quite a bit but overall the table has been running over me. I was running something like 26/22/3 and have 3bet 2-3 times so far. I 3ball villian with 99 in BB vs his SB once and he folded. The other time I 3balled T9hh he called and then pushed over a cbet on a 774cc board.

Not sure if I should call or fold. Villian runs at 22/18/3, hasn't gotten out of line yet that I've seen. I had a feeling he was going to try to run me over postflop so I decided to just call figuring he'd put too much $$ in the pot with a marginal hand.

Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Button ($59.80)
SB ($38.50)
Hero ($51.25)
UTG ($81.95)
MP ($66)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $1.75</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $1.25.

Flop: ($3.75) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $3</font>, Hero calls $3.

Turn: ($9.75) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: ($9.75) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $9.75</font>, <font color="#CC3333"> Button raises to $30</font>, Hero ?

Re: 50NL: AQs in BB
 

This is tricky. I seriously have no idea. I would say his stats definitely suggest this is a fold, but you two sound like you have quite a bit of history.

But I also think this can be a bluff often enough to justify a call for 2.5:1 odds.

Re: 50NL: AQs in BB
 

seems like its either 9T, 88, or a missed heard draw. Not sure how often he bluff raises hearts tho, if ever.

Re: 50NL: AQs in BB
 

I'm a little curious about your bet size on the river.

I'm not so sure that checking would be a good idea, and praying that he tries to steal the pot, but I think weak leading here may have a lot of merit (including a bluff raise that we can comfortably call). Plus, it just keeps the pot size more managable.

The more I think about it, the more I want to fold.

Re: 50NL: AQs in BB
 

Why not c/r or bet out the flop? Also seems a bit passive on the turn. Maybe bet $8 on the turn to help us figure out where we are? I think I call on the river as played.

Re: 50NL: AQs in BB
 

I figured he's likely checking back weak aces and air on the turn. So I was hoping he'd look me up real light with like AT or A9. Basically he'll put me on a flush draw and call. Pretty hard for him not to bet AK+ on that turn figuring he's good.

Re: 50NL: AQs in BB
 

Fold. The only thing you beat here is a bluff IMO.

This guy isn't raising you with a worse Ace.

Re: 50NL: AQs in BB
 

I would c/r the flop here if you are going to flat AQ pre. Fold the river without a read that villain can make big bluffs in this spot or make thin value raises with stuff like AT which would probably be pretty bad against you if you are good. You are repping an ace and generally a decent tag isn't going to try to get you to fold top pair.

Re: 50NL: AQs in BB
 

djj,

do you think he could be thinking the same thing and be bluff raising me because most tags won't call with just an ace?

Also, whats the weakest hand ur calling river with if you do fold to the raise with AQ.

Re: 50NL: AQs in BB
 

[ QUOTE ]
djj,

do you think he could be thinking the same thing and be bluff raising me because most tags won't call with just an
ace?

Also, whats the weakest hand ur calling river with if you do fold to the raise with AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]





link


Basically. He probably assumes you 3 bet AJ+ most of the time pre and that you are repping 77/draws/air. If he doesn't have anything he's probably not putting anymore money in anyways unless he can beat an ace after you check call but he can probably convince him self to call/bluff over a cr with a bunch of stuff.

As far as calling the river raise is concerned I would probably need two pair (AJ, A8, A7, A2) or better to call. He's basically only repping some sort of two pair with an 8 (78,J8, A8), 88, and 9T. Everything else that beats you probably bets the turn but I just don't think he tries to bluff often enough here to call given your line.

cliffs notes: Check raising reps a much wider range than check call, check/check, lead. This is good when we have a hand towards the top of that wide range.

Re: 50NL: AQs in BB
 

Ok not directed at me but I'm going to answer. A bluff raise is a part of his range but not a big enough part getting 1.65-1 to call because the rest of his raising range beats us.

Even though I think our pot size bet on the river looks bluffy I think it's -EV to call here.

Re: 50NL: AQs in BB
 

I agree with your reasoning 100% tho. Just wanted a couple guys who play a lot/post a lot to weigh in as well. Mostly cause I'm villian and hero here is actually 35/20/3 or something. Very spewy preflop and not great postflop.

I had AJ and just called the river bet because I couldn't think of many worse hands he'd pot river with. He didn't seem like the type to cold call A9/AT/A8 OOP so that doesn't give him very many two pair hands, and he didn't seem like the type to peel with middle pair on that flop.

He was also close enough to tilting that I wouldn't want to fold if he shoved the river over my raise.

thanks a bunch for the insight djj.

I'm 22/18ish or something like that. Of course I couldn't put the dudes real stats haha...

Re: 50NL: AQs in BB
 

Ah tricky tricky [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Yeah I think I play it the same as you. Hard to imagine a 35/20 doesn't 3-bet AQ or AK pre-flop. Given that I dunno what he calls a river raise with that you beat.

Re: 50NL: AQs in BB
 

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with your reasoning 100% tho. Just wanted a couple guys who play a lot/post a lot to weigh in as well. Mostly cause I'm villian and hero here is actually 35/20/3 or something. Very spewy preflop and not great postflop.

I had AJ and just called the river bet because I couldn't think of many worse hands he'd pot river with. He didn't seem like the type to cold call A9/AT/A8 OOP so that doesn't give him very many two pair hands, and he didn't seem like the type to peel with middle pair on that flop.


[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm. Well this completely changes the dynamics of the hand from your perspective. I think you need to bet this turn for one and I think a river raise is mandatory here. If he's spewy and bad postflop he's probably not capable of folding Ax. If he's 30/20 he's probably playing just about any suited ace plus a bunch of non suited aces.

Re: 50NL: AQs in BB
 

i think u play this hand wrong all the way
Preflop-you 3betting light SC ,why u dont 3bet your good hands?And,yes,when button(who saw my light 3betting)play back 2 me ill be happy 2 CRAI preflop

On the flop-cold call its worst option.You dont know where u at this hand
Please raise that flop for value and information
Turn -same thing.Why you checking?If you want 2 keep pot small,its ok.But i think its bet/fold on that turn saves you river headech
River-just fold.You dont have any clue what he have.He may have busted draws,he may have A/2+,he may have 2/3o it dosnt matter at this point

Re: 50NL: AQs in BB
 

3 bet pre. cbet flop and get all in somewhere.
but you have to 3 bet pre and yes if you 4 bets or pushes you call.

Re: 50NL: AQs in BB
 

Personally I would have preferred 3-betting preflop, and betting out the flop. I'm pretty sure he has a 2 pair hand.

I would probably fire flop and turn and c/f river in this situation. However as played...i'd most likely just call his river bet, you haven't showed any real strength, he may think he can take it down.

Re: 50NL: AQs in BB
 

Bet the flop, what are you doing.