$10/$20 Plays itself or I donked it up?
 

Hi Guys,
Dynamic of the table is that I have been quite active and seen to be LAG. Opponent has been known to try and slow me down.

I sensed I was in trouble on flop as he check called flop pretty quick and lead turn quick too baiting me to push. I thought this was where my LAG image was about to pay dividends though. Either way, could I play it any better / worse?

Should the turn raise major alarm bells? If we KNOW he has a flush on the turn should we fold at this stage or call and fold missed river or just push now as I did?

NL $10/$20 Texas Hold'em

Seat 1 is the button
Total number of active players : 4
Seat 1: RossG ( $1,138 )
Seat 3: rayer ( $1,965 )
Seat 4: xxTHETILTxx ( $2,533 )
Seat 6: rosser ( $2,172 )
rayer posts small blind [$10]
xxTHETILTxx posts big blind [$20]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to RossG [ Kd, Qs ]
rosser calls [$20]
RossG raises to [$90]
rayer folds
xxTHETILTxx folds
rosser calls [$70]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Jd, Qd, Td ]
rosser checks
RossG bets [$80]
rosser calls [$80]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Qh ]
rosser bets [$200]
RossG goes all-in
RossG raises to [$968]
rosser calls [$768]
** Dealing River ** [ 9s ]
** Showdown **
rosser shows [ 5d, 4d ] a Flush
RossG mucks [ Kd, Qs ]
** Hand Conclusion **
rosser wins $2,304 from main pot with a Flush
************ Game 196343349 ends ************

Re: $10/$20 Plays itself or I donked it up?
 

I think unless you know your opponent to be making razor thin value bets or bluffs, you sort of have to fold this turn. In general, against an unknown you cant be looking to get too deep in the hand on a three to the flush board when you have none of that suit. Also, keep in mind he could have QJ. So I think you should really be folding this turn. You don't know where you stand in the hand and you have no diamonds.

Re: $10/$20 Plays itself or I donked it up?
 

You have 50BB, trips and a straight flush draw. Folding would be hilariously bad.

Re: $10/$20 Plays itself or I donked it up?
 

I have str8 flush draw with the K of diamonds! As well as full house possibilities.

If your opponent turned his hand face up what would you do in my position? (on the turn).

Re: $10/$20 Plays itself or I donked it up?
 

after the turn bet you have to check fold as hes not folding if he leads the turn when the board pairs like that (given the image) and you have the correct odds. you're calling 200 into 570 (35.1%) and you have 17 outs (38%) so even if he doesnt stack off its correct to call.

Re: $10/$20 Plays itself or I donked it up?
 

I have 18 outs no? (7 diamonds, 2 queens, 3 K's, 3 J's 3 T's) if I presume he has the flush already.

Now my dilema is how do I get paid maximum if I hit river diamond or fill up?

Knowing he is calling if I push turn does that still make it correct tp push to maximise EV? I would essentially be betting $968 to win $1308. or can I consider my $200 call already in the pot and therefore be betting $768 to win $1508 thus making it the correct play getting 2-1 pretty much?

Re: $10/$20 Plays itself or I donked it up?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I have str8 flush draw with the K of diamonds! As well as full house possibilities.

If your opponent turned his hand face up what would you do in my position? (on the turn).

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sorry. I'm still a little hungover from the Thanksgiving festivities and didn't realize you have the King of diamonds. That changes things. The thing here is, its sort of hard to put this guy on a range, but assuming he has a flush, its 60/40 in his favor on the turn. If he has QJ you are crushed. If he has AdQc lets say, he has you crushed. The only hand you really beat is like Ad9c. So even given your diamond, I don't think you really have that much equity against the range of hands hes representing to call here. Also, even if you do hit your flush, lets say, you might not want to stick it all on on this paired board and he might not really put much money in if he has a baby flush type hand.

Re: $10/$20 Plays itself or I donked it up?
 

I suppose as I have no fold equity on turn it is a long term break even / losing proposition to push turn under those circumstances.

How can I put myself in a position to be on the correct end of EV after the flop? Or can I?

Re: $10/$20 Plays itself or I donked it up?
 

Good post, ty. I guess I can't really beat his range in this spot. That sucks tho as my hand looks pretty good! Sick fold and show option ;-)

Re: $10/$20 Plays itself or I donked it up?
 

[ QUOTE ]
You have 50BB, trips and a straight flush draw. Folding would be hilariously bad.

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But, he's also on 4th street here, facing resistance on a card that is scary to villain as well on a very coordinated straight/flush board, possibly not even drawing to the best flush, possibly without the best trips, or even behind to a full house already. I don't really see why sticking it in would be so great here/why folding be so bad. Can you please explain Xorbie?

Re: $10/$20 Plays itself or I donked it up?
 

it would be a hilarious fold for sure... even better a fold and show. If I know he has the flush should I fold? That's my real question.

I mean I appear to be getting it in here with a monster but in fact it's a losing push longterm right (vs a known flush)?

If I fold I still have 40+ BB or so.

Re: $10/$20 Plays itself or I donked it up?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Good post, ty. I guess I can't really beat his range in this spot. That sucks tho as my hand looks pretty good! Sick fold and show option ;-)

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, my thoughts exactly. Its a weird situation where your hand looks pretty damn good and, perhaps, there might be other spots where we'd be looking to felt this, but if you really analyze the situation here, its not that great IMHO.

Re: $10/$20 Plays itself or I donked it up?
 

In position, to fold when against all but 3-4 hands you are drawing very, very live.. its just not good. A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Qx is the only hand that is really that bad for you here. Even against QJ you have 6 outs, obviously not a lot but against any flush/straight you are gold, and folding here against KQ would be a travesty. It's 50BB, this donk could have Q4:spades: here for all we know.

Re: $10/$20 Plays itself or I donked it up?
 

[ QUOTE ]
it would be a hilarious fold for sure... even better a fold and show. If I know he has the flush should I fold? That's my real question.

I mean I appear to be getting it in here with a monster but in fact it's a losing push longterm right (vs a known flush)?

If I fold I still have 40+ BB or so.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a simple math question. Just pokerstove it, it should come out to about 60/40 in his favor if he already has a flush. Could be even worse if he has the AQ with the A of diamonds, obviously. Clearly, (i think) being a 60/40 underdog is not a good spot to get it in here.

Re: $10/$20 Plays itself or I donked it up?
 

[ QUOTE ]
In position, to fold when against all but 3-4 hands you are drawing very, very live.. its just not good. A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Qx is the only hand that is really that bad for you here. Even against QJ you have 6 outs, obviously not a lot but against any flush/straight you are gold, and folding here against KQ would be a travesty. It's 50BB, this donk could have Q4:spades: here for all we know.

[/ QUOTE ]

He could have Q4s here? I thought it would be correct to toss this out of his range. Did I miss something in the original post that would lead us to believe he could be pushing this hard with a hand like Q4 of spades? Also, even if you are right that we are drawing live, which I definitely agree is the most likely scenario here by far, we are still a 60/40 underdog to a hand like 23d, 45d, etc. My only point was that it could be even worse than that. Where do we disagree Xorbie?

Re: $10/$20 Plays itself or I donked it up?
 

[ ] Full Stack

Re: $10/$20 Plays itself or I donked it up?
 

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He could have Q4s here?

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Because he's stupid.

Re: $10/$20 Plays itself or I donked it up?
 

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He could have Q4s here?

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Because he's stupid.

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How do you know that?

Re: $10/$20 Plays itself or I donked it up?
 

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He could have Q4s here?

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Because he's stupid.

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How do you know that?

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Because he has 50BB and limp/called UTG.

Re: $10/$20 Plays itself or I donked it up?
 

This is 4-handed, you have a LAG image, 50BB effective stacks, you can't fold this. Either push like you did or call/call.
Call/call is a viable option because there is no scare cards for you to hit on the river.

Re: $10/$20 Plays itself or I donked it up?
 

HSNL has really gone downhill. i mean really? how can u do anything but stick max money in 50x deep. cmonnnnnn

Re: $10/$20 Plays itself or I donked it up?
 

[ QUOTE ]
HSNL has really gone downhill. i mean really? how can u do anything but stick max money in 50x deep. cmonnnnnn

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Its really scary reading this thread [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: $10/$20 Plays itself or I donked it up?
 

Without knowing your opponents cards I 100% agree its going all in - that's the reason I pushed at the time. However, if on the turn u figure he has a flush how would you proceed? Would you have just played it differntly on the flop so as not to be in such a position or does playing it like I did allow me to get away from it when on the turn you are 100% sure he has a flush?

Obv I wanted max value and was trying to bait my villain into getting me all in on flop, however his flat call lead flop lead turn small in fact ended up suckering me and at that stage should have rang alarm bells, no?

Surely against his range on turn I am either drawing to 17 outs at best or 6 at worst...neiter being a great proposition right?

Re: $10/$20 Plays itself or I donked it up?
 

Did you make this hand up?

Re: $10/$20 Plays itself or I donked it up?
 

lol no!

Re: $10/$20 Plays itself or I donked it up?
 

was this your whole roll

Re: $10/$20 Plays itself or I donked it up?
 

lolllll no....but I can see why u asked lolll, it could look like that the analysis i am giving it loll. I had at least another $100 behind ;-)

Re: $10/$20 Plays itself or I donked it up?
 

this hand seems like it plays itself on all streets, except i prob spike the 9d on the river.

Re: $10/$20 Plays itself or I donked it up?
 

[ QUOTE ]
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He could have Q4s here?

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Because he's stupid.

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How do you know that?

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He limp called from the CO preflop with 50bb effective stacks, we can make assumptions.