People who are overpriced
 

There are quite a few singers who although being good, have virtually no chance to win the competition. They can come in the top 5 maybe but they simply will not win. Because of this they should really be at like 2 thru 4 the entire time. Two prime examples of this are:

Stephanie Edwards
Sabrina Sloan


I could name a few more whom I believe have very little to no chance, but those two really have almost none. Despite that for some reason they are at 10 and 7.

The only reason they have any value is that for some reason people think there is a small chance they might win. Sabrina being +900 is simply ridiculous, same for Edwards being +1328. Anyone who buys these people is simply throwing money away, unless your plan is to unload them after another good performance (although I really don't see them getting any higher).

Phil Stacey also has zero chance, he shouldnt even be 5 3, he should be 2 0 because literally he has probably less than a 1% chance of winning the entire competition. Same for Antonella, she has zero zero zero chance to win. They should really have no value at all....so be ready to sell whenever you think they are at their peak.


Basically it's a really weird betting structure where even though we all know that some people have literally less than 1% chance to win, we buy them anyway, as do lots of others, with the hope that their stock (which should be practically worthless) will go up. It's just so weird, in a perfect world everyone should be spending their money on at most 5-6 people and everyone else should be stuck at 0.

Re: People who are overpriced
 

True - but as you hint at, this is about making money, not just picking the winner. All any of these people need is a solid performance and their stock will go up (if only for a few hours). Of course, with WSEX's vig, it's hard to make money by riding the short term fluctuations.

I agree that Edwards and Sloan are overvalued (although if Sloan puts together a string of solid performances, she will have a shot at winning).

I don't really think Phil Stacey is overvalued. Antonella is definitely overvalued - in my mind, she's eliminated. I'm not sure what donks here pushed her 0 2 price up to 3 5. Granny's idea of buying some Antonella at 0 2 was probably a good idea, but at 1 3, I don't think it should be touched.

I also think Sundance is overvalued. To me, he has less a chance than Phil Stacey primarily because he has shown multiple times now that he can't really sing (maybe it's nerves or song choice, but in either case, he's not a versatile performer).

Re: People who are overpriced
 

[ QUOTE ]
True - but as you hint at, this is about making money, not just picking the winner. All any of these people need is a solid performance and their stock will go up (if only for a few hours). Of course, with WSEX's vig, it's hard to make money by riding the short term fluctuations.

I agree that Edwards and Sloan are overvalued (although if Sloan puts together a string of solid performances, she will have a shot at winning).

I don't really think Phil Stacey is overvalued. Antonella is definitely overvalued - in my mind, she's eliminated. I'm not sure what donks here pushed her 0 2 price up to 3 5. Granny's idea of buying some Antonella at 0 2 was probably a good idea, but at 1 3, I don't think it should be touched.

I also think Sundance is overvalued. To me, he has less a chance than Phil Stacey primarily because he has shown multiple times now that he can't really sing (maybe it's nerves or song choice, but in either case, he's not a versatile performer).

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My point is that its just weird that pepole who realistically have no chance at winning, have values much higher than 0. Sabrina Sloan is the most outrageous, she is probably somewhere in the range of 200-1 or more to win, yet shes 10-1 odds on the site and people are trading with that number in mind!

Re: People who are overpriced
 

I think there is money to be made on Phil Stacey. I see him as a a good candidate to make the top 5. If he does this his sell price will be no less than 10 to 12.

Re: People who are overpriced
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think there is money to be made on Phil Stacey. I see him as a a good candidate to make the top 5. If he does this his sell price will be no less than 10 to 12.

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Even if he makes the Top 5 (doubtful IMO) that's no guarantee his price will be 10 or higher. Depends on who he's up against, but if there are 2-3 big favorites still in (say Lakesha and Melinda), his price could just as easily be 1-3 or 2-4 at the Top 5.

Advancing in the competition does not mean the price will go up. It will only go up if enough people think he can win the whole thing. We'd need a bunch of shocking eliminations for that to happen.

Re: People who are overpriced
 

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There are quite a few singers who although being good, have virtually no chance to win the competition. They can come in the top 5 maybe but they simply will not win.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure if this can be determined after one week, though. It all seems so clear in retrospect. A few names, did they ever fall into this list of people who have virtually no chance? These three all could have won had their opposition faltered.

Diana DeGarmo
Jasmine Trias
Elliot Yamin (I took a lot of crap thinking he had a chance)
Kimberly Locke

Re: People who are overpriced
 

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There are quite a few singers who although being good, have virtually no chance to win the competition. They can come in the top 5 maybe but they simply will not win.

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I'm not sure if this can be determined after one week, though. It all seems so clear in retrospect. A few names, did they ever fall into this list of people who have virtually no chance? These three all could have won had their opposition faltered.

Diana DeGarmo
Jasmine Trias
Elliot Yamin (I took a lot of crap thinking he had a chance)
Kimberly Locke

[/ QUOTE ]

If I recall correctly, Yamin's stock was in the gutter until Chris was eliminated 4th, when people started believing he could win.

Re: People who are overpriced
 

My whole point is that basically a lot of people have zero chance to win almost no matter how long they last, and it's just the public's gullibility that gives them any value at all.

Also I think DeGarmo, Trias, Yamin and Locke had virtually no chance to win. I don't believe for a second when they say how close those votes are. Also Locke was very good and Yamin was pretty likable as he had a pretty big underdog factor going, I wouldn't put them in the same category as Phil Stacey and Sabrina Sloan.

Re: People who are overpriced
 

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I'm not sure if this can be determined after one week, though. It all seems so clear in retrospect. A few names, did they ever fall into this list of people who have virtually no chance? These three all could have won had their opposition faltered.

Diana DeGarmo
Jasmine Trias
Elliot Yamin (I took a lot of crap thinking he had a chance)
Kimberly Locke

[/ QUOTE ]

If I recall correctly, Yamin's stock was in the gutter until Chris was eliminated 4th, when people started believing he could win.

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That's my recollection as well. Our own wise-on-all-things-but-this Granny continually labeled Elliot as having no chance at all from almost the start.

He got knocked out because the judges picked "Over the Rainbow" for Kat, and you can't fight that. And also his elimination night was one of his worst performances. If Kat didn't have that song, and Elliot had advanced, the Finals could have very well been hyped as "Style versus Substance".

Re: People who are overpriced
 

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My whole point is that basically a lot of people have zero chance to win almost no matter how long they last, and it's just the public's gullibility that gives them any value at all.

Also I think DeGarmo, Trias, Yamin and Locke had virtually no chance to win. I don't believe for a second when they say how close those votes are. Also Locke was very good and Yamin was pretty likable as he had a pretty big underdog factor going, I wouldn't put them in the same category as Phil Stacey and Sabrina Sloan.

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If Fantasia had gotten laryngitis or withdrew because of her baby, someone else would have had to win, I saw nothing distinguishing Jasmine from Diana until Jasmine's last week. Latoya and others were better onstage than both of them IIRC. I made the Elliot argument above. Jasmine, Diana, and Kimberly were "No chance, none, zero, zip, period" people before good performances.

But some people also grow each week, I haven't seen enough of either Phil or Sabrina to rule either out as < 2%. It's all about the odds of course. But you have a point, in that the prices you listed do seem maybe twice what they should be for both of them.

Re: People who are overpriced
 

What was the line before the final show on Diana? IMO I wouldve made it around 10 or 20 to 1. And that's once she actually got to the final. Does anyone know, I wasn't gambling on it at that time.

Re: People who are overpriced
 

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I think there is money to be made on Phil Stacey. I see him as a a good candidate to make the top 5. If he does this his sell price will be no less than 10 to 12.

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i honestly think he has no chance of top 10

Re: People who are overpriced
 

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What was the line before the final show on Diana? IMO I wouldve made it around 10 or 20 to 1. And that's once she actually got to the final. Does anyone know, I wasn't gambling on it at that time.

[/ QUOTE ]

20-25

fantasia 77-83

Re: People who are overpriced
 

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What was the line before the final show on Diana? IMO I wouldve made it around 10 or 20 to 1. And that's once she actually got to the final. Does anyone know, I wasn't gambling on it at that time.

[/ QUOTE ]

20-25

fantasia 77-83

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Do you feel like it was too high on Diana?

Re: People who are overpriced
 

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I think there is money to be made on Phil Stacey. I see him as a a good candidate to make the top 5. If he does this his sell price will be no less than 10 to 12.

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i honestly think he has no chance of top 10

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I'd give him some chance at top 10, but no real chance to do anything special.

Re: People who are overpriced
 

So who are the guys who you actually believe have a chance at winning? Only Blake and Sligh?

Re: People who are overpriced
 

On the boys side, only Blake, Sundance and Chris Richardson have a chance. Sundance desperately needs lessons and some good advice though.

Sligh looks really sweet doing the slow love songs and can score with ballads, but he can't do the fast stuff. He looked like an alternative rock college band singer Tuesday, and that is not real popular to the mass audience.

Phil Stacey's decent cover band material, but nothing special.

Re: People who are overpriced
 

Honestly I don't believe anyone but Lakisha or Melinda will win. I'd say the combined chance of them winning is around 75-85% I could be overestimating a little bit, but I simply think they outclass everyone else by too large a margin, especially the boys.

Re: People who are overpriced
 

[ QUOTE ]
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What was the line before the final show on Diana? IMO I wouldve made it around 10 or 20 to 1. And that's once she actually got to the final. Does anyone know, I wasn't gambling on it at that time.

[/ QUOTE ]

20-25

fantasia 77-83

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Do you feel like it was too high on Diana?

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I only watched (I still don't gamble, I'm just fascinated by the odds), but that was a strange year. Kimberly Locke was voted off too early, and then Latoya, while John Stevens hung around too long and later Jasmine and Diana, and nobody knew just what America was capable of next. That probably got Fantasia more votes in the Final, of course.

And also the Clay-Ruben final the year before was weird, and nobody was sure that the voting was fair. Thanks to the analysis here and having 5 previous seasons, it's probably easier now to justify statements saying someone has "no chance" than it was before.

Wait, why am I aiding your case? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: People who are overpriced
 

You must have Kim Locke confused with someone else. She finished 3rd to Clay and Ruben.

Edit: You're probably thinking of Jennifer Hudson.

Re: People who are overpriced
 

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Honestly I don't believe anyone but Lakisha or Melinda will win. I'd say the combined chance of them winning is around 75-85% I could be overestimating a little bit, but I simply think they outclass everyone else by too large a margin, especially the boys.

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Based on one performance and limited audition tapes you're willing to give those two as 3-1 favorites over the 18 other contestants combined?!

I think you are crazy. I'm not sure I'd give 3-1 on the winner being a girl.

Re: People who are overpriced
 

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I think there is money to be made on Phil Stacey. I see him as a a good candidate to make the top 5. If he does this his sell price will be no less than 10 to 12.

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i honestly think he has no chance of top 10

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Granny, I respect your oppinions on Idol immensly, and have followed you and road your coatails the last 2 years,but I would be shocked if Stacey does not make the top 10. If you look at his Dialidol scores he was easily in the top 10 the first week. He is also from the south and has a serious, commited type A worker personality. If he sets himself apart from the pop crowd and goes more towards rock, this will garner him votes from the "rock" crowd. Will this be enough to win ... most likely no. I agree with you the winner will probably be Lakisha (at least it looks like it so far). I am just saying there are ways to hedge bets and I believe that there is money to be made on people like Stacey and Richardson trading at 3 - 5 right now.

Re: People who are overpriced
 

Sabrina Sloan can sing. Suggesting that she should be 200-1 is ridiculous. Betting against a good singer like Sabrina, especially when her stock is not that high, is just going to burn you.
So are the assumptions being made after just one week. For 3 weeks, they get to pick songs that they can sing well (that does not bode well for some who still were a mess), and you will see many train wrecks as they get into theme weeks.
Others will get derailed due to poor song selection. It happens every year.
There is another situation developing.....on the girls' side, Lakisha, Melinda, Jordin and Stephanie (all good singers.....Melinda and Lakisha were simply outstanding in week 1) may be similar to Latoya London, Fantasia, and J Hudson, whose style and song choices (and yes, race ) were cancelling each other out, voting-wise.
Add in both blatant and subtle manipulation by the judges and producers (Last year, Daughtry got smoke and lasers every week, and there was an intervention to save Elliott), and you have more of a horserace than some here are suggesting.

You are going to get burned if you think week 1 is how it is going to go all year.
On the boys' side, Brandon, the guy who has sung backup for some stars, obviously has some talent. (They don't hire bad singers for backup). He also has shown real comfort on stage. Priced very low now, but could have a lot of upside.
On the girls' side, Lakisha deserves the favorite's role for now, but can she change it up, or will she just belt out every song ? Melinda has virtually perfect control of her voice, and is comfortable on stage. But she may skew to an older demographic and/or suffer from the 4 soul-divas cancelling each other out.

Re: People who are overpriced
 

Great analysis Ruprecht. I agree that eventually Melinda, Lakisha, Jordin, and Stephanie will have their votes cancelled out. As for Brandon, he got criticized for singing a safe song. He definitely has the talent to bring down the house this week.

I think Sabrina's a bit overpriced. She had a great performance last week, which boosted her price to 7 10. However, looking at DialIdol and checking out the AI forums, I don't think she has enough of a following to keep her out of the bottom rung.

Re: People who are overpriced
 

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I think there is money to be made on Phil Stacey. I see him as a a good candidate to make the top 5. If he does this his sell price will be no less than 10 to 12.

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i honestly think he has no chance of top 10

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Granny, I respect your oppinions on Idol immensly, and have followed you and road your coatails the last 2 years,but I would be shocked if Stacey does not make the top 10. If you look at his Dialidol scores he was easily in the top 10 the first week. He is also from the south and has a serious, commited type A worker personality. If he sets himself apart from the pop crowd and goes more towards rock, this will garner him votes from the "rock" crowd. Will this be enough to win ... most likely no. I agree with you the winner will probably be Lakisha (at least it looks like it so far). I am just saying there are ways to hedge bets and I believe that there is money to be made on people like Stacey and Richardson trading at 3 - 5 right now.

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here is what i think is going on with phil.

1. the other guys sucked so bad that the judges and voters were looking for someone to praise.

2. i think his performance was forgettable (i seriously forgot it already)

3. i think that there are weeks that a sub-par contestant rises to the top of DI. i think this was simply such a week.

he does not excite me or even amuse me. he may make top ten, but certainly not better than 8th-ish.

BOOK IT


edit: i think you are probably right that chris r is a good hedge, and those looking to hedge or diversify would be nuts to pass him up at 3-5. it's just that i don't hedge. i own very few contestants, and only one female. this may be the year that granny crashes and burns, who knows? but i stand by my picks (and NON picks)

Re: People who are overpriced
 

In the past few years you can generally pick 2-3 people who will win, and one of those people will win. You can do this after one performance. Fantasia, Carrie, Ruben are all very clear examples of this. I personally thought Taylor wouldn't win, but I was wrong that year and shouldn't have ignored his huge fanbase. However if I had to pick 3 people last year who may win, they would have clearly been: Chris, Katherine and Taylor in that order.

I don't think it's at all unreasonable to pick 2-3 people who have a legitimate chance and say that everyone else is pretty much in big trouble.

I also stand by Sabrina being 200-1 to win it all, she is clearly inferior to the other good singers, despite one good performance.That combined with her personality problems in comparison to them, gives her basically zero chance. I think she may not even make the final 12, although hopefully she does.

Also Phil Stacey was not good and also has basically zero chance. Sanjaya is more likely to win than Phil IMO, because if Sanjaya has a few good performances (which he probably isn't capable of), he would actually become a major force. Phil would be forgettable, maybe sneak into 4th-5th place or so at absolute best.

Re: People who are overpriced
 

Curtains,

"I also stand by Sabrina being 200-1 to win it all,"

You wouldn't stand by that price for real cash, so it is sort of silly. Whether you like Sabrina or not, she is a good singer. And she makes her living by singing. 200-1 is absurd, and not at all realistic.
I didn't care for her first week performance, but she can sing.

Re: People who are overpriced
 

[ QUOTE ]
Curtains,

"I also stand by Sabrina being 200-1 to win it all,"

You wouldn't stand by that price for real cash, so it is sort of silly. Whether you like Sabrina or not, she is a good singer. And she makes her living by singing. 200-1 is absurd, and not at all realistic.
I didn't care for her first week performance, but she can sing.

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I wouldnt give 200-1 on a 1000-1 shot so who really cares. I honestly don't think 200-1 is not realistic at all. She has no chance in hell to win, its not even close.

Re: People who are overpriced
 

I agree that she doesn't seem like she can win right now, but I don't think we've seen enough to determine this.

Re: People who are overpriced
 

"I wouldnt give 200-1 on a 1000-1 shot so who really cares. I honestly don't think 200-1 is not realistic at all. She has no chance in hell to win, its not even close"

Based on what ? If you really know anything about singing, you would know that she is a very good singer. Doesn't matter if you don't like her looks or style-- she can really sing.
Why would a good singer have "no chance in hell " ? That's absurd. You are unlikely to be cashing a lot of tickets when your objectivity gets so out of whack.

Re: People who are overpriced
 

re Sabrina: I think the real answer is somewhere in between. Sabrina is way overpriced at 7 10 but she's better than 200-1 to win. I'd peg her around 75-1. Probably the best short on WSEX at the moment if you have the bankroll for it.

Re: People who are overpriced
 

OK. I just watched her performance again. She was better than I thought, and I thought she was pretty good the first time. She has real talent. She can sing.
If you want to short her, please let me know and I will be at WSEX or Intrade to get the other side when you get her to 20-1 for me. That shouldn't be a problem, since you say she has little or no shot.
I think it is WAAAAAYYYY too early to short her. There are some weak singers that will get the boot before her.
I did not really care for her week 1 performance myself (not my thing), but I would not be shorting any good singer this early-- and Sabrina is a good singer.

Re: People who are overpriced
 

[ QUOTE ]
re Sabrina: I think the real answer is somewhere in between. Sabrina is way overpriced at 7 10 but she's better than 200-1 to win. I'd peg her around 75-1. Probably the best short on WSEX at the
moment if you have the bankroll for it.

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Put my money where my mouth is and shorted her for all I had in my WSEX acccount. Free money. Surprised her price didn't move. I know I said I was done gambling on AI this year but I just feel there is so little chance of her winning that it's not even gambling to do this. Anyway only had $770 in there, so risking 700 to win 49. If I had more money in there that I wasn't using at all I would have put it all against her.

The problem is that it only makes sense if you aren't really gambling on AI because other better deals will probably come up, and you'll need capital to take advantage of them.

Re: People who are overpriced
 

[ QUOTE ]
OK. I just watched her performance again. She was better than I thought, and I thought she was pretty good the first time. She has real talent. She can sing.
If you want to short her, please let me know and I will be at WSEX or Intrade to get the other side when you get her to 20-1 for me. That shouldn't be a problem, since you say she has little or no shot.
I think it is WAAAAAYYYY too early to short her. There are some weak singers that will get the boot before her.
I did not really care for her week 1 performance myself (not my thing), but I would not be shorting any good singer this early-- and Sabrina is a good singer.

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Dude have you seen the show before this season? If Latoya London couldn't win, Sabrina sure as hell isn't winning. She has nothing for the American public to get attached to, and I'm quite sure she's an inferior singer to some of the others. Yeah she had one good performance, it means nothing in the grand scheme of things. Latoya London blew up the stage basically everytime she sang and lost out to the likes of Diana DeGarmo and Jasmine Trias.

Re: People who are overpriced
 

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re Sabrina: I think the real answer is somewhere in between. Sabrina is way overpriced at 7 10 but she's better than 200-1 to win. I'd peg her around 75-1. Probably the best short on WSEX at the
moment if you have the bankroll for it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Put my money where my mouth is and shorted her for all I had in my WSEX acccount. Free money. Surprised her price didn't move. I know I said I was done gambling on AI this year but I just feel there is so little chance of her winning that it's not even gambling to do this. Anyway only had $770 in there, so risking 700 to win 49. If I had more money in there that I wasn't using at all I would have put it all against her.

The problem is that it only makes sense if you aren't really gambling on AI because other better deals will probably come up, and you'll need capital to take advantage of them.

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I agree, you made a great bet. It might have even been a good short if it was just against her making F12. I would have done the same thing if I had an extra $770 lying around. But I just put my last $200 on Melinda at buy 19. She might not win but I can't see her outside the final 2. She's just too good and Simon loves her. In a weird way she reminds me of Bo (not the singing, just how I see her AI adventure playing out)

Re: People who are overpriced
 

i thought i posted something about this subject... and then not sure if i didn't complete the posting or if it was deleted...

but i'll keep it very simple (and unoffensive): anyone else starting to get tired of chris sligh's personality? i thought it was moderately neat on the audition show. now i don't feel that way....

Re: People who are overpriced
 

Maybe Sabrina doesn't last long. I doubt you have much insight into her singing. But shorting her NOW is foolish. She is very unlikely to go home this week. That means your position will get worse before it gets better.

If you can't tell who can sing (Sabrina can sing, London was very good, but you are way overboard about her abilities), and you are not shorting at the top of the market, or buying at the bottom, you will not beat this game. No chance.
Shorting a good singer after 1 performance is ridiculous. And we can tell she is good-- she didn't just have a lucky night.

Re: People who are overpriced
 

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe Sabrina doesn't last long. I doubt you have much insight into her singing. But shorting her NOW is foolish. She is very unlikely to go home this week. That means your position will get worse before it gets better.

If you can't tell who can sing (Sabrina can sing, London was very good, but you are way overboard about her abilities), and you are not shorting at the top of the market, or buying at the bottom, you will not beat this game. No chance.
Shorting a good singer after 1 performance is ridiculous. And we can tell she is good-- she didn't just have a lucky night.

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Dude Im getting 12-1, I don't thnik shes anywhere close to being a 12-1 shot to actually win the entire competition. This isn't all about singing, not even close, and I think she's definitely not one of the top 3 singers, but even if she were she would be a far longer shot than 12-1.

If you want to risk 1000 bucks on Sabrina to win 11000 I'm ready.

Re: People who are overpriced
 

I never said I liked Sabrina to win it. What I did say was that your assessment of her chances is way out of line. And that if you have shorted her now, you have taken the worst of it, since there is not much chance of her going home this week. As others drop out, Sabrina will likely go higher in the marketplace. That's "Futures 101" stuff.
I also said that if you are unable to make a realistic line on her chances of winning, you will not beat this game or any other.
Is this how you bet sports ? "That team has no chance?"

Re: People who are overpriced
 

The people who get eliminated are probably people who are at 2 0 on wsex right now. This is likely true for the next 2 weeks, which Sabrina may not even survive. If she has a subpar performance her stock will plummett almost instantly IMO.

Anyway started a seperate thread about this subject, so we can stop hijacking this one.