Hand from Coaching Session
 

I'm posting this here because SSNL >> uNL. Hero is my student, who runs about 18/15. Plays a straight-forward, thinking TAG game (as he should). Villain has been unremarkable, not much history, but runs at a steady 17/14 with high FTR AF.

Thoughts?

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG: $66.95
CO: $124.40
BTN: $49.75
SB: $59.65
BB: $10

Hero has Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Pre-Flop:
<font color="red">UTG raises to $2</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $6</font>, 3 folds, UTG calls $4

Flop: ($12.75) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">CO bets $7</font>, UTG calls $7

Turn: ($26.75) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">CO bets $15</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises to $42</font>

Re: Hand from Coaching Session
 

Hero is CO?

Re: Hand from Coaching Session
 

UTG, sorry.

Re: Hand from Coaching Session
 

yeah which player is hero?

Re: Hand from Coaching Session
 

Looks like no better hands fold and no worse hands call to me.

Re: Hand from Coaching Session
 

If he's gonna do this, he may as well 4-bet pre.

Re: Hand from Coaching Session
 

this looks pretty bad. not that i didnt play a hand just like this earlier (in which i played horribly)...

Re: Hand from Coaching Session
 

[ QUOTE ]
If he's gonna do this, he may as well 4-bet pre.

[/ QUOTE ]

what

Re: Hand from Coaching Session
 

pretty gross imo

i don't mind peeling the flop given villain's smallish betsize, but putting in any money beyond that is pretty spewy. c/f turn

Re: Hand from Coaching Session
 

If CO's range to bet the turn is flushes/TT/KK/AA/AK, I think this really sucks. I c/f the flop against this type.

Re: Hand from Coaching Session
 

............

this is awful imo. it's not like we can have a flush here unless we got really tricky as most people would c/r flop with a flush draw. villain shouldn't be folding AK or anything. i would just c/c turn.

Re: Hand from Coaching Session
 

um 4b preflop?, as played yikes tough spot i prob fold turn not sure how often he double barrels worse

Re: Hand from Coaching Session
 

i would c/f the turn. we aren't getting paid if we hit our flush, there are some reverse implied odds and he is rarely bluffing here.

Re: Hand from Coaching Session
 

c/r at nl50 here is a pure bluff

Re: Hand from Coaching Session
 

I don't like this very much.

If he has a flush draw in a 3 bet pot he would nearly always try to get stacks in on the flop.

Plus i don't like fancy play at micro stakes. Villains can't fold AK here at this level so it's just a spew to even attempt it.

Just fold the turn.

Re: Hand from Coaching Session
 

Aight I'm gonna flush out a little math on this.

Villains's 3betting range in this hand is probably something like TT+, AQs+. It shouldn't be this wide, but I'm expanding it a little because, well, it's 50nl, and people overvalue and do stupid things. No history either, remember.

I'm going to kind of analyze this as a best case scenario in terms of range to emphasize what I believe to be the merit.

I would argue that his range for betting this turn includes his whole preflop range minus QdQs, the AQhh, ss, dd, and the 3 combo's of JJ that don't include a club. This range comprises 3.1% of all hands.

I'm also going to argue that he folds everything but AK/AQcc, AcKx, AcAx, KK, TT, and JcJx. Again, this is best case scenario. This range comprises 2.0% of all hands, or 64.5% of of his turn betting range.


Board: 3s Tc Kc 7c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.909% 70.91% 00.00% 468 0.00 { AcAd, AcAh, AcAs, KK, JcJd, JcJh, JcJs, TT, AcKc, AcQc, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdKc, AhKc, AsKc }
Hand 1: 29.091% 29.09% 00.00% 192 0.00 { QcQh }



EV = .355(41.75) + .645(.29091(66.95) + .70909(-66.95))

= -$3.23

Re: Hand from Coaching Session
 

FWIW we have like $11 behind after this raise, and so I assumed that if him calling = him shoving. We are essentially shoving, I just wanted to increase FE as much as possiblity and this raise def looks stronger than a c/shove.

Re: Hand from Coaching Session
 

Take out those JcJx and what's your equity?

Re: Hand from Coaching Session
 

Doing that now and it's not looking good lol.

Calling range becomes 1.7%, or 54.8% of turn betting range.

EV = .452(41.75) + .548(.125(66.95) + .875(-66.95))

EV = -$8.64

Re: Hand from Coaching Session
 

fold the flop. Turn? well let's hope you have 10 outs because you're getting called.

Re: Hand from Coaching Session
 

Yea I'm wrong. I analyzed net change in my calculations, so the $41.75 should be $28.75.

-$3.23 - .355(41.75-28.75) = -$7.845

-$8.64 - .452(13) = -$14.516.

If we weight both assumptions accurately, I'd say the EV is somewhere around -$11.

We were about to fold the turn and I said "wanna do something stupid?" Thought it was a little better than it was though.

FWIW he tanked and called with KK.

Re: Hand from Coaching Session
 

Sorry to hijack...

I tried to PM you earlier Tufat, but your PM's are full. Please shoot me a PM when you get a chance.

Thanks.

Re: Hand from Coaching Session
 

this math isnt right, well the range isn't. This spot is more simple intuition, you are overthinking it

Re: Hand from Coaching Session
 

[ QUOTE ]
Doing that now and it's not looking good lol.

Calling range becomes 1.7%, or 54.8% of turn betting range.

EV = .452(41.75) + .548(.125(66.95) + .875(-66.95))

EV = -$8.64

[/ QUOTE ]

Can I not have a clue what I'm looking at and still be a successful NLHE player?

Re: Hand from Coaching Session
 

willw9,
I don't know who's coaching you willw9, but whatever you do. If it's not somewhere along the lines of firing him, then you might have to consider this

Re: Hand from Coaching Session
 

lol thanks barrin

Re: Hand from Coaching Session
 

Yeah Will, I think we've already talked about you using 2p2 to get your name out there as a coach. And don't even tell me that's not what's happening here.

And Barrin, that's just dumb, c'mon.