Speaking of Resteals
 

Can someone walk me through how I can figure out if this is a good play? [mathmatically]

This around 20 minutes into the final table. Lets say the range that he calls with is AQ/AK and JJ+ I'll say he opens with 30% of his hands. The only hand I've shown was AK and have been playing pretty tight. As you can see, there are lots of short stacks still hanging on...

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1600 (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB (t23172)
Hero (t38456)
UTG (t17976)
UTG+1 (t19020)
MP1 (t16730)
MP2 (t12383)
CO (t116035)
Button (t26228)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t4075</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t38456</font>, Button folds.

Final Pot: t42981

Re: Speaking of Resteals
 

I'll use the range you gave for him to show how to do the math. AQ+, JJ+ is 4.2% of all hands so if he only calls with those and he is raising 30% of hands, he should fold to your push 86% of time and call 14%.

86% of the time he folds and you gain t7075.
14% of the time he calls and you are 25% against his calling range so you gain t29228 25% of the time and lose t26228 75% of the time.

(.25*29228)-(.75*26228) = -12364 when he calls

Now combine the times he folds and times he calls and(.86*7074)-(.14*12364) = 4353.54 making this +EV.

I should mention that the calling range you give him seems crazy tight and the more hands he calls with here, the less +EV this move is. You should try checkin out the EV with a looser calling range.

Re: Speaking of Resteals
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'll use the range you gave for him to show how to do the math. AQ+, JJ+ is 4.2% of all hands so if he only calls with those and he is raising 30% of hands, he should fold to your push 86% of time and call 14%.


[/ QUOTE ]


Could you explain how you came up with the 86% and 14% numbers? Its probably something simple I'm missing, but I just can't figure it out.

Re: Speaking of Resteals
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'll use the range you gave for him to show how to do the math. AQ+, JJ+ is 4.2% of all hands so if he only calls with those and he is raising 30% of hands, he should fold to your push 86% of time and call 14%.


[/ QUOTE ]


Could you explain how you came up with the 86% and 14% numbers? Its probably something simple I'm missing, but I just can't figure it out.

[/ QUOTE ]


He is raising with 30% of all hands. He is calling a reraise with 4.2% of all hands. 4.2 is 14% of 30. So he will raise with 30% of all hands, and call a reraise with 14% of that 30%.

Re: Speaking of Resteals
 

It's important to note that the more you reraise, the more he calls and therefore your reraise can become -EV.

Just wanted to keep that clear as the numbers are crunched.

Brad

Re: Speaking of Resteals
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's important to note that the more you reraise, the more he calls and therefore your reraise can become -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]
True, but you also have to keep in mind that smaller raises = bigger chance of being called = -EV [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Just to make this crystal clear, you knew this already of course.