Re: how bad is this?
 

This is where variance comes from.

Re: how bad is this?
 

Looks good. Sucks to have your hand pretty much face up, but I don't think there's much else you can do.

Re: how bad is this?
 

Hey benny,

3-bet the flop. I might even 3-bet the turn too.

Re: how bad is this?
 

I dont see anything bad here I think you played your draw very well but maybe you should lead out on the turn if you are willing to call the raises.

Re: how bad is this?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hey benny,

3-bet the flop. I might even 3-bet the turn too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm, confusion bet, interesting! Would that forestal the cap, or create river calls? Suppose a 76hh falls. Can you now lead?

Re: how bad is this?
 

the only thing I do different is donk the flop

Re: how bad is this?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I might even 3-bet the turn too.

[/ QUOTE ]

looks like someone is already there for the straight, and/or a set is out so our equity lies primarily in the non-pairing flush-card outs.

Re: how bad is this?
 

only straight possible is mp2 holding T8 which is "discountable" imo. most likely you're against a set and overpair or two sets.

in that case you're almost breaking even on the money going in on the turn. 3-betting the turn is obviously not good, though.

pokenum -h ah 8h - 9c 9d - 7d 7h -- 2h 9h 7c 6s
Holdem Hi: 42 enumerated boards containing 6s 7c 9h 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ah 8h 13 30.95 29 69.05 0 0.00 0.310
9c 9d 28 66.67 14 33.33 0 0.00 0.667
7d 7h 1 2.38 41 97.62 0 0.00 0.024

Re: how bad is this?
 

[ QUOTE ]
only straight possible is mp2 holding T8 which is "discountable" imo. most likely you're against a set and overpair or two sets.

in that case you're almost breaking even on the money going in on the turn. 3-betting the turn is obviously not good, though.

pokenum -h ah 8h - 9c 9d - 7d 7h -- 2h 9h 7c 6s
Holdem Hi: 42 enumerated boards containing 6s 7c 9h 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ah 8h 13 30.95 29 69.05 0 0.00 0.310
9c 9d 28 66.67 14 33.33 0 0.00 0.667
7d 7h 1 2.38 41 97.62 0 0.00 0.024

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree that it's pretty unlikely we're against a straight. If we do 3-bet the turn, it would be bad if UTG was planning on simply calling MP's raise since there was no need to put that bet in. Although, since we're not that far off of 33% equity, we don't lose that much by betting. In that case, do you think it's worth it for deception miles? I mean, OP played this hand exactly like a flush draw and if he does hit the flush on the river that doesn't pair the board, it's likely to freeze people up. However, if we 3-bet to make it look like a slowplay, do you think there is any value in that since it would be harder for them to put us on the flush draw, possibly letting us collect another round of bets on the river from someone with 99?

Re: how bad is this?
 

miles,

It is a pretty clear 3-bet against top and 2nd set. Max raises are going in no matter what we do so we might as well try and hide our hand by 3-betting. The current EV is going to be the same no matter what we do but our implied odds will be much better if we gas it now. The problem is when he has an overpair and will just call the turn raise but most people that lead into a flop capper are doing so with the intention of 3-banging it. The other problem with 3-betting is that we could have made a straight and it might slow them down. But if both of them have sets, I'd still be confident that the river would go 3 or 4 bets. If the turn was a total brick I'd probably go for it and hope that we get 8 BB on the river when we hit.

After coldcalling twice and calling two more twice it seems doubtful that we will get anymore then 2 BB on the end.

Benny,

Was the river a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]? I'm guessing that you have to lead at it the way the hand went down.