presidential election
 

why isn't there a line on the election and why dont ppl bet on it?

Re: presidential election
 

wsex.

Re: presidential election
 

Betfair prices, so you likely can't get on, but as a guide:

Rep candidate:
Giuliani +122
Romney +265
Paul +1400
McCain +1500
Thompson +1900
Huckabee +1100

Dem:

Clinton -250
Obama +460
Gore +2300
Edwards +1850

President:

Dem -200
Rep +192

Re: presidential election
 

Looking at WSEX prices there's value in shorting candidates like Ron Paul and Fred Thompson for Rep. Nom, but who wants to hold onto futures for that long for a 4% return on non-negligible risk? Interesting to hear an analysis on +EV choice to win though.

Re: presidential election
 

[ QUOTE ]
Looking at WSEX prices there's value in shorting candidates like Ron Paul and Fred Thompson for Rep. Nom, but who wants to hold onto futures for that long for a 4% return on non-negligible risk? Interesting to hear an analysis on +EV choice to win though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd be interested in something closer and doing a middle on something like a Clinton/Obama ticket v Repubs. I think that ticket is a crash and burn, Edwards has got to get on there for a chance.

Re: presidential election
 

My gut says there is a lot of value on Romney at +265. To greatly minimize risk you could put 1u on Rudy at +122 and 1u on Romney at +265. I'd estimate that > 90% of the time one of these 2 gets the nod and if I were booking I'd have both at -105.

Re: presidential election
 

or obama

Re: presidential election
 

Yeah getting that much on Obama, probably has some value, but it's thin.

Re: presidential election
 

Bottom line, do you guys think this country is ready to elect a female President?

I don't no matter how bad the Republican is.

Re: presidential election
 

All republicans should burn for banning online gambling...all of them plus any other politician who wants to tell dumb yanks what to do.