Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!
 

With 1 second left in the game the Cardinals elect to kick a field goal from the half yard line to tie the game instead of going for the TD.

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How the [censored] do these coaches get paid >>> 3 mil a year to make some of the absolute worst decisions of all time.

Can they not hire a high school stat student to do the calculations for them.

Their scoring chance for inside the one must be around 70-80%, opposed to the exactly 50% they have in overtime. The coach is giving up .25 wins with one play. WTF!!!!

Can we organize a rally of sorts to inform the public of this highly sub-optimal play.

AHHHHHHH

Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!
 

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With 1 second left in the game the Cardinals elect to kick a field goal from the half yard line to tie the game instead of going for the TD.


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4 minutes left, down by 3, the Chiefs elected to go for it on 4th and 1 from the Oakland 23 yard line. They were stuffed and lost the game.

Don't these idiot coaches know that they should get the tie and play for the win later?

(I was just being facetious. I understand your point. To be fair to the Cards, twice this season, they've gone for the TD at the end of the first half even though they were in FG range. They succeeded both times:

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/playbyplay...7&week=REG7

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/playbyplay...7&week=REG5

Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!
 

that's what the pundits will have you believe, anyway.

Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!
 

It's because they're afraid of getting criticized in public if they do anything that could lead to an immediate loss. As I was watching the game, I was thinking "The Cardinals should go for it here" but you are the only other person I've heard say this, and you can bet that if they'd gone for it and gotten stuffed, every armchair coach in America would be all over it.

To be fair they have a slightly better than 50% chance of winning in OT because they're a better team than the 49ers but it's obv nowhere near 70%.

Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!
 

not sure what the rule is but Monday night Miami got flagged for the illegal forward pass with 2 seconds left in the game.
I thought if PIT accepted the penalty then the clock would wind down 10 seconds and be the end of the game or something like that. The annoucers hinted that they thought it was the end of the game too.
Instead, PIT declined the penalty. So it became just a regular incomplete pass I believe which stopped the clock and gave MIA another chance.

Obviously it didn't make a difference to the outcome of the game but technically it could have. And if PIT was aware that accepting the penalty meant the end of the game vs. giving MIA one more chance then it's obvious they would have accepted it.

And if it did not result in the end of the game then I have no idea why they wouldn't accept the penalty to march them back 10 more yards or whatever.

Just seemed like a really strange finish there.

Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!
 

yeah this was the worst call I've seen in a long time

Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
not sure what the rule is but Monday night Miami got flagged for the illegal forward pass with 2 seconds left in the game.


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Wikipedia says the 10 second runoff doesn't occur for illegal forward pass.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_football_rules

Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's because they're afraid of getting criticized in public if they do anything that could lead to an immediate loss. As I was watching the game, I was thinking "The Cardinals should go for it here" but you are the only other person I've heard say this, and you can bet that if they'd gone for it and gotten stuffed, every armchair coach in America would be all over it.

To be fair they have a slightly better than 50% chance of winning in OT because they're a better team than the 49ers but it's obv nowhere near 70%.

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didn't see the game or know about this but yeah, it's pretty damn obvious you should go for it there.
While there would be some reprecussions in they failed I do think some of the public is in love with the 'gutsy' play-calling. Some really stupid fans scream to "go for it!!!" on 4th and goal from the 6 when their team is up by 7 and silly stuff like that.

Above everything else, coaches want to give games and don't give a crap what the fans think of their play-calling.
I think a coach who actually understands the math there is not gonig to be talked out of going for it just because the fans might boo him.
They get booed all the time. They get booed when they screw up in their own end-zone to lose the game anyway.

I reeally don't think that some of the conservative play-calling is done to appease the fans and keep the criticism to a minimum. It's just how they've learned the game. And in many situations they are correct in their decision-making...but in stuff like this they have tendency to get it REALLY wrong.

Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
not sure what the rule is but Monday night Miami got flagged for the illegal forward pass with 2 seconds left in the game.


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Wikipedia says the 10 second runoff doesn't occur for illegal forward pass.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_football_rules

[/ QUOTE ]


cool, thanks.
Still wonder why they declined penalty though.
At least, I THINK they declined the penalty. I really can't remember for certain now.

Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!
 

But what was the point of Pittsburgh declining the penalty? I was very confused as there was zero benefit to doing so that I could think of.

Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
not sure what the rule is but Monday night Miami got flagged for the illegal forward pass with 2 seconds left in the game.
I thought if PIT accepted the penalty then the clock would wind down 10 seconds and be the end of the game or something like that.

[/ QUOTE ]

The 10 second runoff applies only to certain penalties. False start, yes. Illegal formation, no. And the clock has to be running for it to apply (ie if 9 seconds left with the clock stopped, a false start will not result in a 10 second runoff).

And illegal forward pass is a 5 yd penalty.

Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!
 

Billy Bibbit got it exactly right imo. The coaches are playing to deflect criticism from themselves personally, rather than playing to maximize their chances of winning the game. If the Cardinals go for the TD and don't make it, then it's the coach's decision that led directly to the loss. If the Cards kick the field goal and then lose in overtime, then the problem is the players or luck or the other team or whatever.

It's the same reason that MLB teams bunt too much and overpay for mediocre veterans. Also NBA teams taking star players out of the game when they get 3 fouls in the first half.

If sports fans were less results-oriented, things might be different.

Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
Billy Bibbit got it exactly right imo. The coaches are playing to deflect criticism from themselves personally, rather than playing to maximize their chances of winning the game. If the Cardinals go for the TD and don't make it, then it's the coach's decision that led directly to the loss. If the Cards kick the field goal and then lose in overtime, then the problem is the players or luck or the other team or whatever.

It's the same reason that MLB teams bunt too much and overpay for mediocre veterans. Also NBA teams taking star players out of the game when they get 3 fouls in the first half.

If sports fans were less results-oriented, things might be different.

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if sports fans were less results oriented i might not win at poker

Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's because they're afraid of getting criticized in public if they do anything that could lead to an immediate loss. As I was watching the game, I was thinking "The Cardinals should go for it here" but you are the only other person I've heard say this, and you can bet that if they'd gone for it and gotten stuffed, every armchair coach in America would be all over it.

To be fair they have a slightly better than 50% chance of winning in OT because they're a better team than the 49ers but it's obv nowhere near 70%.

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This is the crux of it all. Losing in OT brings alot less heat than if you run 4th&1 and get stuffed. The standard is "Go for the kick, play OT" and I doubt there are many fans that know the relative %'s for each situation so I doubt its an obvious decision to them all.

Infact there is a concensus among some that you shouldnt ever punt in your OPP half considering all of the factors of it all. A high school team in Texas actually never punts unless its a completely hopeless coversion attempt

Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!
 

I really dont mind going for wins in the NFL rather then ties. Especially with the NFL's retarded OT system where it is extremely feasible that only one teams offense touches the ball.

Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!
 

"Losing in OT brings alot less heat than if you run 4th&1 and get stuffed."


I still really disagree with this.
These guys are under tremendous heat as it is. Many of them are going to get fired within 1-3 years anyway.
If they actually understood the math they would go for it in a heartbeat and wouldn't give a crap what the idiot fans have to say.

All these guys hear ALL the time is how they should pass more...no wait...you should run more...no wait, why do you have your punter kick like that when it's clearly better to aim it towards the sideline...etc etc.

They hear all the "expert" telling them the most non-sensical idiotic crap over and over and over again. They aren't completely immune to it.
But they aren't total brainless dweebs who are just making play-calls all game long based on what will get them the least amount of heat from their fans.

They are very much trying to win the game and if they do they know the fans will follow...and if they don't then the fans will turn against them.

I really think the impact of the fan criticism on such decisions is being somewhat overstated here.

Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!
 

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I really dont mind going for wins in the NFL rather then ties. Especially with the NFL's retarded OT system where it is extremely feasible that only one teams offense touches the ball.

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exactly.
If he fails when he tries it then he just says, "look...I thought we had a good chance of making it. We were practically on top of the goal-line so lets finish this right now instead of relying on the coin-flip."

Fans would totally buy this imo.

Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
"Losing in OT brings alot less heat than if you run 4th&1 and get stuffed."


I still really disagree with this.
These guys are under tremendous heat as it is. Many of them are going to get fired within 1-3 years anyway.
If they actually understood the math they would go for it in a heartbeat and wouldn't give a crap what the idiot fans have to say.

All these guys hear ALL the time is how they should pass more...no wait...you should run more...no wait, why do you have your punter kick like that when it's clearly better to aim it towards the sideline...etc etc.

They hear all the "expert" telling them the most non-sensical idiotic crap over and over and over again. They aren't completely immune to it.
But they aren't total brainless dweebs who are just making play-calls all game long based on what will get them the least amount of heat from their fans.

They are very much trying to win the game and if they do they know the fans will follow...and if they don't then the fans will turn against them.

I really think the impact of the fan criticism on such decisions is being somewhat overstated here.

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right now Neil Rackers and Kurt Warner are taking heat/blame for Cards loss.

If Wiz goes for it ala Pete Carroll and misses...he gets all the blame.

Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
not sure what the rule is but Monday night Miami got flagged for the illegal forward pass with 2 seconds left in the game.


[/ QUOTE ]
Wikipedia says the 10 second runoff doesn't occur for illegal forward pass.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_football_rules

[/ QUOTE ]


cool, thanks.
Still wonder why they declined penalty though.
At least, I THINK they declined the penalty. I really can't remember for certain now.

[/ QUOTE ]

They did decline the penalty and it still made no sense. They could have forced Miami back further. WTF

Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!
 

I agree with the general point of this thread:

Many coaches are scared of getting fired or taking heat and thus, make poor decisions which end up hurting their team.

Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!
 

I actually thought the first time when Miami went for it on 4th and 11 instead of kick the field goal earlier in the game was way way worse. Probably one of the worst decisions I have ever seen a coach make.

Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!
 

The Kentucky coaches made the exact same mistake this past Saturday against Tennessee.

UK was down 3 and had the ball on about 2 with 18 or so seconds left. THey ran a running play to get to the 1 and then called a timeout. They then threw an incomplete pass and there was like 3 seconds left, enough for 1 play.

So they kicked the field goal to go to OT, where they lost.

As you pointed out, OT will usually be a 50/50 deal (minor edge for the better team and possibly the home team) but surely your odds of scoring a TD from the 1 are far better than 50/50? Stupid.

Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!
 

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had the ball on about 2 with 18 or so seconds left. They ran a running play to get to the 1 and then called a timeout. They then threw an incomplete pass and there was like 3 seconds left, enough for 1 play.
... but surely your odds of scoring a TD from the 1 are far better than 50/50? Stupid.

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Well, at that point they were 0-2 from the 2/1 yd lines.

Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!
 

MicroBob,

Most people aren't used to thinking about EV the way poker players do. I don't think it ever occurs to most coaches to compare probabilities in the sense of "We win 70% if we go for it and 55% if we attempt a field goal." They just do what other people have told them is best, be it reporters, other coaches, or whoever. When a coach gets ripped apart for getting stuffed on fourth down I'm sure it discourages other coaches from going for it in the future.

Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!
 

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I actually thought the first time when Miami went for it on 4th and 11 instead of kick the field goal earlier in the game was way way worse. Probably one of the worst decisions I have ever seen a coach make.

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The chance that you miss that field goal and hand Pitt the ball 7 yards closer to a FG of their own > chance of making first down and/or at least handing Pitt the ball at line of scrimage > change of making field goal imo.

Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!
 

People on the Cards boards aren't even upset about this. They are upset at the poor clock management. 1:01 left with 1 timeout, and the Cards only get off 3 plays!

They get a first down, and instead of spiking it, they run another play. They gain 9 yards, but again they don't spike it, but run another play again, getting them to the 1 yard line, where they finally call a time out with 6 seconds left (even though there was a high likelihood of there being a booth review on that play). They get another play off, and it was broken up at the goal line, leading to the FG attempt.

Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
I actually thought the first time when Miami went for it on 4th and 11 instead of kick the field goal earlier in the game was way way worse. Probably one of the worst decisions I have ever seen a coach make.

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Wasn't there a penalty for delay of game right before that play, and the kicker drilled the ball right into the defensive line about 5 yards off the ground? Pittsburgh had also came up short and way wide from almost the same exact spot on the field the quarter before, those conditions were horrible for anything other than a chip shot field goal.

Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!
 

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[ QUOTE ]
I actually thought the first time when Miami went for it on 4th and 11 instead of kick the field goal earlier in the game was way way worse. Probably one of the worst decisions I have ever seen a coach make.

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Wasn't there a penalty for delay of game right before that play, and the kicker drilled the ball right into the defensive line about 5 yards off the ground? Pittsburgh had also came up short and way wide from almost the same exact spot on the field the quarter before, those conditions were horrible for anything other than a chip shot field goal.

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yes, and the annoucers were talking about what a lucky break it was for the dolphins that they could now kick from one of the few spots where you could easily get your footing instead of in a mud pit. If they decided there was a 10% chance of making that field goal that is still better than going for it imo.

Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!
 

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Their scoring chance for inside the one must be around 70-80%, opposed to the exactly 50% they have in overtime.

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I actually was hoping to refute this point and defend kicking the FG (on the grounds that they might be better than 50% to win in OT, or that they were not 80% to score), but in fact, it's even more grossly in favor of going for it.

On the year, Arizona had started 11 games (similar to the conditions you'd start an OT period) - of those 11, they scored first only 3/11 times. Obviously this stat has variance on coin flip.

On the year, Arizona has been in 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1 situations (similar to what they were in on the last play of regulation) 18 times; they successfully convered 16/18 times.

Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!
 

Everyone here is forgetting the Curse of the Bidwells.

Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!
 

Maybe this applies more to baseball but Im amazed how much managers/coaches talk about playing the percentages but then when they have a chance to actually do so they pass on it. A manager will bring in a horrendous lefty for an excellent righty to face Garet Anderson with a 1 run lead in the bottom of the ninth and the bases load with 2 outs and call it "playing the percentages" But then in a spot like this they pussy out.

Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!
 

"People on the Cards boards aren't even upset about this. They are upset at the poor clock management. 1:01 left with 1 timeout, and the Cards only get off 3 plays! "

Human stupidity will never cease to amaze me. Your coach threw away a 25 percent increase in the chance of you winning the game. This estimate is on the conservative side I believe as well.

You must also consider the fact that there is about a 95 percent conversion rate on PAT's, possibly slightly less for field goals on a hash mark.

For all those saying that any team will win significantly more than 50% to win in overtime, give me some kind of statistical data to back up the claim. I would love to look at all first quarter data the last 30 years and give a "win" to the team that scored first just like the rules of overtime. Normalize this for who recieved the ball first and you will see that almost no team would have more than a 55 percent edge in overtime. This would give a fairly accurate picture of what the best teams could hope for in overtime. I would even go as far to say any NFL team vs Missouri would not be favored more than 60 percent in overtime.

I feel like I want to make it my life long pursuit to change the way decisions are made in professional sports. These games are not very dificult to analyze and like I said previously most high school stat students should figure out the egregious mistakes these coaches are making.

Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!
 

Sports is the only area of society where such mistakes are so open to the public and so blindly passed over. I mean look at how quants have completely take over wall street and that is a "game" where optimal strategy is nearly impossible to figure out.

Football, basketball, and most especially baseball can be analyzed very precisely using relatively simple applications to determine the right play to maximize winning percentage which is all that matters. There isn't nearly as much money in these sports but just imagine if one of these quant hedge funds took over a baseball franchise. This team would break all sorts of records within 5 years and almost surely make the playoffs every year. This Cardinal loss probably cost the team at least 100k, possibly much much more if they fall 1 game short of a playoff game. I guess I'll stop now as I could go on forever but it just strikes me as an impossibility of how sub-optimal decision making is in all sports across the board.

Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!
 

Baseball's run fairly optimally, it's not like by perfectly running a team you'll pick up 30 wins a season or that wall street guys would just rape the current sabermetricly inclined front offices when it comes to trades/the draft.

Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!
 

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On the year, Arizona has been in 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1 situations (similar to what they were in on the last play of regulation) 18 times; they successfully convered 16/18 times.

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Are you suggesting that a 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1 from the 1 yard line is the same as a 3rd or 4th and 1 from anywhere else on the field?

Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
Baseball's run fairly optimally, it's not like by perfectly running a team you'll pick up 30 wins a season or that wall street guys would just rape the current sabermetricly inclined front offices when it comes to trades/the draft.

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For all of you that have any doubt please read Baseball between the numbers by Baseball prospectus. It is run highly sub-optimal in terms of base stealing, bunting, batting order, pitching rotation,pinch hitting, closer usage and pretty much every other aspect of the game. If you want to discuss this more pm me, I don't feel like unleashing all my pent up feelings on sports management debacles here. Perhaps I will start a blog.

Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
On the year, Arizona has been in 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1 situations (similar to what they were in on the last play of regulation) 18 times; they successfully convered 16/18 times.

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Are you suggesting that a 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1 from the 1 yard line is the same as a 3rd or 4th and 1 from anywhere else on the field?

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That's exactly what I was thinking.
This isn't even close to correct and shows why people who try to use numbers but don't really think about the game itself can often-times be WAY in the wrong.

In a regular 3rd and 1 from the 50 or whatever your defensive alignment is MUCH different than it is on a goal-line stand on the 1.
Mostly it has to do with your defense needing to defend against big yardage too. Secondary needs to follow some guy who is breaking 20+ yards downfield.

On the 4th and goal on the 1 obviously everything is far more packed in and the situation is much different.
Converting 16 of 18 times on 3rd and 1 from elsewhere on the field really has very little to do with the goal-line situation or decision.

Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
On the year, Arizona has been in 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1 situations (similar to what they were in on the last play of regulation) 18 times; they successfully convered 16/18 times.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you suggesting that a 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1 from the 1 yard line is the same as a 3rd or 4th and 1 from anywhere else on the field?

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It surely is different and thats why I quoted a number around 75% as their "true" success rate, though I still think this is conservative.

Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!
 

Dudd's right. Baseball is run fairly optimally; you aren't going to win 10 more games by outlawing sacrifice bunting and stealing. Look at Oakland.

Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's because they're afraid of getting criticized in public if they do anything that could lead to an immediate loss. As I was watching the game, I was thinking "The Cardinals should go for it here" but you are the only other person I've heard say this, and you can bet that if they'd gone for it and gotten stuffed, every armchair coach in America would be all over it.

To be fair they have a slightly better than 50% chance of winning in OT because they're a better team than the 49ers but it's obv nowhere near 70%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Making the FG isnt 100% although its close, but it probably erases a lot of the edge the Cardinals have. If its the Pats or something it might start to become relevant, although probably still not.