100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

PF is obviously hilarious. The limp/re-raiser (MP2) was running ~33/22 over a couple orbits and seemed passive. The min-raiser (CO) was a nit who probably folded like QQ.

I really thought I'd get raised on the flop, so I bet a bit small to entice a raise. However, after donking into him twice, especially with the size of the turn bet, is it too scary to just open shove the river? If so, how much should I bet here? He's passive, but I have no idea if he would raise a $40 bet with AA; I am pretty sure, though, that he can't fold a big pair here.

UB NLHE - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 10 Players

SB: $17.50
Hero (BB): $112.30
UTG: $62.10
UTG+1: $138.95
UTG+2: $98.00
MP1: $115.65
MP2: $108.70
MP3: $104.00
CO: $96.90
BTN: $140.65

Preflop: Hero is dealt 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (10 Players)
4 folds, MP2 calls $1.00, MP3 folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $2.00</font>, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.00, <font color="red">MP2 raises to $5.00</font>, CO folds, Hero calls $3.00

Flop: ($12.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $7.00</font>, MP2 calls $7.00

Turn: ($26.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $22.50</font>, MP2 calls $22.50

River: ($71.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
HERO (Villain has ~$75 left)

EDIT: I'm posting these because I think I try to play for stacks too much. Is a shove overkill here?

Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

If he is going to call a $40 bet with AA, why wouldn't he call a $70 bet?

If he has a set, he is probably calling a bet no matter what. If he missed one of his draws, he isn't going to call anything - your only hope in this case would be to have him bluff a draw on the river. If he has an overpair and will call a $40 bet, I'm pretty sure shoving is more EV.

I think I would just push here.

Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
If he is going to call a $40 bet with AA, why wouldn't he call a $70 bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think he can fold aces, I'm just not sure if he's raising with them if I bet $40 (some passive donks will just shove over any bet with AA on this board).

Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

push

Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
How Much Do I Bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

All of it.

Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

His read of you and/or your table image would help here. I think you're forgoing value if you open-shove -- that can't have the highest expectation.

Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

Are you sure it doesn't maximize EV? Hero's read on villain is heavily implying that villain can't fold an overpair.

Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

You should be betting more on the flop.

I think a river shove will get called.

Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
His read of you and/or your table image would help here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Third (?) orbit, so I doubt he had any reads other than that I wasn't a maniac.

Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

I weakish bet of about $25 might entice him to come over the top with an overpair. Thoughts ?