Flop Decision - Omaha H/L
 

Hand 1 :You are on the button in a 5 handed game with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]-Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]-J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]-10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Open with a raise. Called by SB and BB. Flop comes 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

SB leads and BB calls. What is your move?

Hand 2
Same holdings but flop comes.

2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]King [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Same action to you. What's your move?

ASSUME IN BOTH - Opponents are typical players. not loose and crazy.

Re: Flop Decision - Omaha H/L
 

Hand 1 I call.

Hand 2 I call.

In both spots closing the action on the cheapstreet with 8sb's in the pot should make a call a no brainer. Put yourself in the BB and now it steers more toward a fold I feel (obviously the second one moreso then the first).

Re: Flop Decision - Omaha H/L
 

Calling is automatic.

Re: Flop Decision - Omaha H/L
 

I understand why it looks at first blush to be an auto-call. But....I don't believe in auto-anything.
H
ow many hearts that hit really win you anything more than half the pot? You have 3 of the high hearts. What do you think SB and BB have?

Re: Flop Decision - Omaha H/L
 

I thought the typical players were pretty loose!

Presumably you're raising on the button because,

Either /
a) They may fold
b) If you don't, one of them will

It looks a little to them, that you probably have a counter-feited Lo, so raising the flop probably won't have much fold equity on turn (or even gain you a Free card), and you only have 1 clean out to scoop plus b'door str8 draw. You have 1 out to counterfeiting A3, the 3h.

Raising looks bad, calling even worse, so fold in both spots. Even if the SB likes to probe bet flops, you don't have the right kind of hand to sort'em on this board.

Re: Flop Decision - Omaha H/L
 

Interesting thoughts. Don't i have 2 guaranteed scoop outs. K or 10 of hearts?

Re: Flop Decision - Omaha H/L
 

With two low cards on the board you're looking at a probable split in each case. A heart wins you half the pot so long as the board doesn't pair. Hand 1 you have a nut flush draw + OESD, so a raise would be appropriate. Hand 2 you have a nut flush draw, so a call would be more like it.

Re: Flop Decision - Omaha H/L
 

I think we just have a gutshot unless i posted something incorrectly. I am actually curious for Buzz's calculations. Hand 2 was the actualy hand played. I figured the SB lead with a decent high and an A3 and that the BB might be calling with a low draw and flush draw. In either case I felt i would likely split the pot best case and needed to draw to split. So I folded on the flop. Turn came 4 of hearts and river came King pairing the board. The SB scooped with an A-2-3-K. Despite the results being favorable for my fold I am wondering if my analysis was off. I figured most hearts that came only game me 50% on each additional investment.

Re: Flop Decision - Omaha H/L
 

Raise, I'm on the button, and can my get the river card free. If I hit, I have more in the pot and can bet the turn. Or I could bet again buying the right to a bluff on the River if nothing comes.

Re: Flop Decision - Omaha H/L
 

Interesting. I don't know about raising here. SB will likely reraise and your extra money is lost if BB folds. And it looks like SB has a hand since he knows i raised and is leading with some sort of hand. Many cards come on the turn that will not let a "free" card come to me.

Re: Flop Decision - Omaha H/L
 

[ QUOTE ]
I am actually curious for Buzz's calculations.

[/ QUOTE ]Green - Is this a limit game or a pot limit game?

Do you more or less automatically raise when you enter the action from the button with two folds in front of you? In other words do SB and BB more or less expect you to raise when you enter the action under these circumstances?

What is SB's range of hands to just call your raise? What is BB's range of hands to just call a raise after SB has also called? In other words, do they both have better than random cards (aside from really horrid starters like quads and trips). Do they both probably have low draws to call the raise? Or not?

I don't think you have a very good starting hand for the high/low game. But I'd certainly play it here, and the pre-flop raise here, hoping to steal the blinds or at least get one-on-one with position against one of the blinds seems reasonable. It's not a very good starting hand because it doesn't have any low possibility and the high is not great. However, with the right flop, your hand can suddenly become very strong. (But that's true of any hand).

That's not what happened for this particular flop. You have no pairs and a heart draw plus an inside straight draw, a total of eleven outs, but eight of them are not for the whole pot. You also have some back-door straight draws.

We can simulate for this particular hand after this particular flop, and find out what the hand ends up making. Here it is for the first flop:<ul type="square">32.9% flush
30.0% one pair
13.3% two pairs
12.9% straight
09.1% bust
01.8% trips[/list]
And here it is for the second flop:<ul type="square">36.1% one pair
32.9% flush
12.8% bust
08.6% two pairs
07.8% straight
01.8% trips[/list]
However, there is no way of knowing how often any of those are expected to win, lose or tie against these two blinds. If you hadn't raised, I'd simulate against two random hands held by non-folding opponents, and go from there. But your pre-flop raise changes that. Since the two blinds called your raise I don't think they have random hands. (I simulated against one blank hand, 100,000 runs, just to see what your hand ends up making.

I could simulate for various opponent profiles, but I don't know what opponent profiles to use. And the hands folded also have a bearing. I don't know what opponent profiles to use for the two opponents who folded before the action got to Hero on the first betting round.

Kind of interesting to note the differences when you replace the inside straight draw card with the back-door eye-hole straight draw. No change in the flush or trips (of course) but everything else is a bit different.

Buzz

Re: Flop Decision - Omaha H/L
 

[ QUOTE ]
Interesting thoughts. Don't i have 2 guaranteed scoop outs. K or 10 of hearts?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, thanks for correction.

Though I didn't want to focus on what hands would pay off, you're in a dilemma where you would like 1 of those outs to be in opponents hand.

Some of the time Kh Xh is going to be in the flop bettor, or the callers hand, making your hand even longer a shot.

Discounting your outs, and as someone else pointed out even with the perfect Th you can lose 1/2 pot on river (to a low) or on a bad day all of it, if the board pairs.


Now I've read the later responses and results.

The question doesn't give quite enough info, about the flop bettor, and the caller to really make an accurate decision. However, even if the bettor and caller are loose players, unless you think the turn is likely to be checked; you won't be very wrong to fold.

Re: Flop Decision - Omaha H/L
 

Sorry all - was out yesterday. The game originally was one where any raise pre-flop was called by these blinds. But after a successful couple of hours, (and my folds on the button), they began to fold their blinds to my raises on occassion. They were calling me with any 2 wheel cards. The initial attempt was to steal blinds. When that didnt work i have to decide based on flop. With the action on the flop i felt like i was likely drawing for half so i folded.