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-   -   10NL - 33 pf (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=558060)

akak 11-30-2007 03:53 PM

10NL - 33 pf
 
Villain was 73/25/2.3 after 34. One hand he min-raised on the button w/ 64s and another he min-raised in the SB w/ T3o
with a limper already in. Then he bet/3bet on the turn when he hit TPnK.

Do we have the implied odds to call here? What's going through your head in a situation like this?

Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

UTG ($6.35)
MP ($7.35)
Hero ($10.10)
Button ($9.70)
SB ($10.40)
BB ($9.65)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $0.4</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $1.2</font>, Hero...

Alobar 11-30-2007 05:20 PM

Re: 10NL - 33 pf
 
Meh, its close. You are calling .80 to win the max of about $10 (his stack plus whats already in the pot). It's hard to know if he actually has a legit hand here, so its hard to gauge if you are more likely to get paid off if you do flop a set. Some minraising retards 3 ball the good stuff, others are the "*giggle* lets slow play!" type. I suspect this is one of those spots where its so close it doesnt much matter. Given that, I prolly just go ahead and call, I don't want him thinking he can 3 bet me with crap and I'll fold, and also hes destined to lose his stack at this table most likely, so I might as well be the one to take it. So I call and shount "one time baby!!" at my monitor

akak 11-30-2007 05:45 PM

Re: 10NL - 33 pf
 
[ QUOTE ]
Meh, its close. You are calling .80 to win the max of about $10 (his stack plus whats already in the pot). It's hard to know if he actually has a legit hand here, so its hard to gauge if you are more likely to get paid off if you do flop a set. Some minraising retards 3 ball the good stuff, others are the "*giggle* lets slow play!" type. I suspect this is one of those spots where its so close it doesnt much matter. Given that, I prolly just go ahead and call, I don't want him thinking he can 3 bet me with crap and I'll fold, and also hes destined to lose his stack at this table most likely, so I might as well be the one to take it. So I call and shount "one time baby!!" at my monitor

[/ QUOTE ]

lol.

Ok, so here we assume since he's such narb, there's a very good chance we'll get his whole stack.

Assuming we take his whole stack if we hit a set, we are getting ~10.5-1 implied odds. The odds of us hitting are 7.5-1.

Even though we won't get his whole stack all the time, our implied odds are probably better than 7.5-1 so we call.

Did I get all of those numbers right?

Oh, and congrats on getting "picked". I'm very jealous.

knockonwood 11-30-2007 08:23 PM

Re: 10NL - 33 pf
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Meh, its close. You are calling .80 to win the max of about $10 (his stack plus whats already in the pot). It's hard to know if he actually has a legit hand here, so its hard to gauge if you are more likely to get paid off if you do flop a set. Some minraising retards 3 ball the good stuff, others are the "*giggle* lets slow play!" type. I suspect this is one of those spots where its so close it doesnt much matter. Given that, I prolly just go ahead and call, I don't want him thinking he can 3 bet me with crap and I'll fold, and also hes destined to lose his stack at this table most likely, so I might as well be the one to take it. So I call and shount "one time baby!!" at my monitor

[/ QUOTE ]

lol.

Ok, so here we assume since he's such narb, there's a very good chance we'll get his whole stack.

Assuming we take his whole stack if we hit a set, we are getting ~10.5-1 implied odds. The odds of us hitting are 7.5-1.

Even though we won't get his whole stack all the time, our implied odds are probably better than 7.5-1 so we call.

Did I get all of those numbers right?

Oh, and congrats on getting "picked". I'm very jealous.

[/ QUOTE ]

The odds of hitting your set are 7.5:1, but you can't assume you are going to stack him everytime.

Alobar 11-30-2007 08:33 PM

Re: 10NL - 33 pf
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Meh, its close. You are calling .80 to win the max of about $10 (his stack plus whats already in the pot). It's hard to know if he actually has a legit hand here, so its hard to gauge if you are more likely to get paid off if you do flop a set. Some minraising retards 3 ball the good stuff, others are the "*giggle* lets slow play!" type. I suspect this is one of those spots where its so close it doesnt much matter. Given that, I prolly just go ahead and call, I don't want him thinking he can 3 bet me with crap and I'll fold, and also hes destined to lose his stack at this table most likely, so I might as well be the one to take it. So I call and shount "one time baby!!" at my monitor

[/ QUOTE ]

lol.

Ok, so here we assume since he's such narb, there's a very good chance we'll get his whole stack.

Assuming we take his whole stack if we hit a set, we are getting ~10.5-1 implied odds. The odds of us hitting are 7.5-1.

Even though we won't get his whole stack all the time, our implied odds are probably better than 7.5-1 so we call.

Did I get all of those numbers right?


[/ QUOTE ]

The thing to remember is that even if we do hit our set we wont always win, sometimes well get over setted, or he'll get some flush or straight or something, and lots of times we wont get his whole stack when we do flop a set, so you want him to have significantly more than 7.5:1, so that when we do stack him, it makes up for all the times he just folds to our raise, and the few times we hit and lose.

The standard rule is the 5/10 rule. Its an easy call if the call is less than 5% of the effective stack (so 20 more bets to win), its a fold if its greater than 10% and in between those 2, its up to your best judgement. Here its around 10% so its a judgement call. So youd take into account the player and what his hand range is. If he 3 bets alot but doesnt get stupid post flop its more likely to be a fold, because his range is so wide hes not going to have a hand worth paying you off with often enough. If its some uber tight player, its a call because hes more likely to be holding a big PP and most people cant fold their premium pairs. Here its tough to know what the guys range is, but he's prolly spazzy enough post flop youve got a shot at his stack, so I'd call.

[ QUOTE ]

Oh, and congrats on getting "picked". I'm very jealous.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Im pretty psyched


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