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-   -   2-4NL - When do I take a stand? (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=558091)

RiverHebrew2 11-30-2007 06:29 PM

Re: 2-4NL - When do I take a stand?
 
Call flop and fold if unimproved on later streets.

cbboy 11-30-2007 06:31 PM

Re: 2-4NL - When do I take a stand?
 
I shove the flop.

keikiwai 11-30-2007 06:40 PM

Re: 2-4NL - When do I take a stand?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Call flop and fold if unimproved on later streets.

[/ QUOTE ]

this why i don't like calling, cause it's too tempting to do this, and it is often enough not the correct action if his pfrr range is wide enough

lkjhgfdsa 11-30-2007 07:22 PM

Re: 2-4NL - When do I take a stand?
 
kowl.

MrHoobris 11-30-2007 08:30 PM

Re: 2-4NL - When do I take a stand?
 
The math behind shoving all-in:

Pot size: 96+84 = 180
Left to Shove: 396-46 = 350
Final Pot Size: 396*2 = 792

Equity when called (included 2 combos of A8s that represent tilt calls):

Board: Jd 8c 7c
Hand 0: 28.324% { 9c9h }
Hand 1: 71.676% { 77+, AcKc, AcQc, AJs, AcTc, Ac9c, Ah8h, As8s, KcQc, KJs, KcTc, QJs, QcTc, JTs, Jc9c, Jd9d, T9s, AJo }

Let X=P(Fold),
EV(Shove)=0= 180*X + (1-X)(792*0.28-350)
X = 41.6%

His calling range represents 6.90% of total combos, so he needs to be cbetting a total of:
6.90%/(1-41.6%) = 11.82%

Now if there ever was a board to check give-up on for a PFR, this would be it, so i don't think he's c-bet folding enough here for a shove to be profitable. This changes if he's the type to insta-cbet all flops after 3-betting preflop.

At the same time, we have too much hand to fold, so I agree that call and reevaluate is the best option.


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