100nl: shoving turn with middle pair is FUN!
 

Villain = 23/9/2, seems like a standard TAG after 70 hands.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (6 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($125.25)
UTG ($128.05)
Hero ($100)
CO ($74.50)
Button ($121.40)
SB ($142.30)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $4, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: ($9.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $7</font>, Button calls $7.

Turn: ($23.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $14</font>, Hero SHOVES?

<font color="blue"> Ok i think his range for betting the turn here is JJ, TT, 99, 44, 66, 87, 64, T9, T7-AT, diamond draws and some str8 draws too + random bluffs/floats.

I think he will call with 2pr, sets and the str8. He should fold everything else right?

Re: 100nl: shoving turn with middle pair is FUN!
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think he will call with 2pr, sets and the str8. He should fold everything else right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Excactly. So you either win a $37 pot or lose a $200 pot. Doesn't sound like a great plan to me.

Re: 100nl: shoving turn with middle pair is FUN!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think he will call with 2pr, sets and the str8. He should fold everything else right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Excactly. So you either win a $37 pot or lose a $200 pot. Doesn't sound like a great plan to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

.

Re: 100nl: shoving turn with middle pair is FUN!
 

[ QUOTE ]
Villain = 23/9/2, seems like a standard TAG after 70 hands.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (6 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($125.25)
UTG ($128.05)
Hero ($100)
CO ($74.50)
Button ($121.40)
SB ($142.30)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $4, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: ($9.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $7</font>, Button calls $7.

Turn: ($23.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $14</font>, Hero SHOVES?

<font color="blue"> Ok i think his range for betting the turn here is JJ, TT, 99, 44, 66, 87, 64, T9, T7-AT, diamond draws and some str8 draws too + random bluffs/floats.

I think he will call with 2pr, sets and the str8. He should fold everything else right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Pokerstove can answer a lot of your questions here. If he'll fold the rest? We'll you and your reads can answer that. /standard dick reply

I'd usually just bet the turn though.

Re: 100nl: shoving turn with middle pair is FUN!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think he will call with 2pr, sets and the str8. He should fold everything else right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Excactly. So you either win a $37 pot or lose a $200 pot. Doesn't sound like a great plan to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

No. we win $37 when he folds, and lose $100 when he calls.

Re: 100nl: shoving turn with middle pair is FUN!
 

Don't think so, I was talking about pots. You're talking about winnings when you lose and pots when you win.

You'll win a $37,50 pot (of which $11 is yours, so +$26,50) if he folds or lose a $201,50 pot (of which $100 is yours, so -$100) if he calls.

Re: 100nl: shoving turn with middle pair is FUN!
 

ew

Re: 100nl: shoving turn with middle pair is FUN!
 

I had a play with stove. Villain needs to fold 70% of the time for this to be a breakeven play. According to my range villain will only fold 60% of the time and we only have 10% equity when called, so this is -EV.

To make the play +EV we would need either:
-smaller effective stacks, probably around $80
-Better equity when called
-Or a huge read that villain floats a lot.

FWIW, i actually called his turn bet. River went check, check and villain showed AKo, MHIG [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: 100nl: shoving turn with middle pair is FUN!
 

we has a gutshot

Re: 100nl: shoving turn with middle pair is FUN!
 

[ QUOTE ]
we has a gutshot

[/ QUOTE ]

r u making fun of me?