Save the money or burn it?
 

I chose burn. How often is this line NOT a flush? I was getting 4:1 and just crossed my fingers and hoped to see a donkily played 2pair/set. If he pushed turn I'dve called anyways so...BURN IT!

No real reads btw.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) internettexasholdem.com

BB ($615.10)
Hero ($533)
MP ($315)
Button ($427.60)
SB ($517.50)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $3.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $25</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB (poster) calls $22, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($56) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $44</font>, SB calls $44.

Turn: ($144) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $111</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $222</font>, Hero calls $111.

River: ($588) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB calls $226.50 (All-In), Hero calls $226.50.

Final Pot: $1041

Re: Save the money or burn it?
 

Yeah I should have bet more on flop, but I have been making a lot of 3/4 cbets and was hoping to get played back at.

Re: Save the money or burn it?
 

once again, betting the turn is a huge leak.

Re: Save the money or burn it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah I should have bet more on flop, but I have been making a lot of 3/4 cbets and was hoping to get played back at.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh, $44 is fine here. If you're gonna bet turn, get raised and plan on calling any blank river, shouldn't you just push turn?

Re: Save the money or burn it?
 

Your line looks fine.

Re: Save the money or burn it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Your line looks fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

no it sucks balls.

Re: Save the money or burn it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah I should have bet more on flop, but I have been making a lot of 3/4 cbets and was hoping to get played back at.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh, $44 is fine here. If you're gonna bet turn, get raised and plan on calling any blank river, shouldn't you just push turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I imagine he probably hadn't deciced whether or not to call if the river was a blank yet. These guys aren't folding either if the river pairs the board so i don't mind just calling the turn.

I think this is a flush though about 95% of the time and would like to think i would lay down on this river but with 4:1 the call is meh.

Re: Save the money or burn it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
These guys aren't folding either if the river pairs the board so i don't mind just calling the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's why calling is good, so you can hit the boat and get paid off. Calling regardless isn't.

Re: Save the money or burn it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
These guys aren't folding either if the river pairs the board so i don't mind just calling the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's why calling is good, so you can hit the boat and get paid off. Calling regardless isn't.

[/ QUOTE ]

best line is still checking behind on the turn.

and I hope none of you will come in and say something stupid like "i have to protect against 4th diamond".

Re: Save the money or burn it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
once again, betting the turn is a huge leak.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you really think so? Should I put my opponent on A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] immediately after he calls the flop bet? I mean, cmon he can have a lot of hands and the last thing I want to is check and have him "accidently" river me with some small [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Folding river seems correct, but then again I _AM_ a call station.

Re: Save the money or burn it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
once again, betting the turn is a huge leak.

[/ QUOTE ]

What's the correct line, then? check/call the turn, check/fold the river unimproved?

Re: Save the money or burn it?
 

Plus, if he just c/r pushed the turn I'dve probly called putting him on A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Kx or some other pair+draw

Re: Save the money or burn it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
best line is still checking behind on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah.


[ QUOTE ]
check/call the turn, check/fold the river unimproved?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero has position, so check-check turn, and call decent river bet = lose less than bet turn into flush.

Re: Save the money or burn it?
 

sigh, ok

Re: Save the money or burn it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
once again, betting the turn is a huge leak.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you really think so? Should I put my opponent on A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] immediately after he calls the flop bet? I mean, cmon he can have a lot of hands and the last thing I want to is check and have him "accidently" river me with some small [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Folding river seems correct, but then again I _AM_ a call station.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok, flop is K 5 4. you have 2 Ks. what kind of hand calls your flop bet there? not very likely a made hand.

how often is it that he has a hand that called you on the flop, has a single diamond, and a non board pairing diamond hits the river?

compare that to how often he has a lesser made hand (say underpair that didn't believe you on the flop) that called the flop, a blank hits river, and he tries to bluff you.

compare that to seeing your 10 outer for free and punishing him for checking the turn with a made flush.

instead, you'll rather protect a small pot against a very unlikely scenario by putting in all your money and giving maximum implied odds to flush draws on the flop.



you have to understand that the 4th diamond hits the river very seldomly.

turn bet is just bad.

Re: Save the money or burn it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
once again, betting the turn is a huge leak.

[/ QUOTE ]

What's the correct line, then? check/call the turn, check/fold the river unimproved?

[/ QUOTE ]

checkbehind on the turn. reevaluate on river.

Re: Save the money or burn it?
 

okokokookokokokokok

Re: Save the money or burn it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Your line looks fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

no it sucks balls.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, and I agree with amoeba here.

Re: Save the money or burn it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah I should have bet more on flop, but I have been making a lot of 3/4 cbets and was hoping to get played back at.

[/ QUOTE ]

why should you bet more on the flop?
44 into 56 seems fine to me,its not like he's getting odds to call with a draw
you have top set,you don't want him to just fold...
am i missing something?
would most of you bet more on the flop?

Re: Save the money or burn it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah I should have bet more on flop, but I have been making a lot of 3/4 cbets and was hoping to get played back at.

[/ QUOTE ]

why should you bet more on the flop?
44 into 56 seems fine to me,its not like he's getting odds to call with a draw
you have top set,you don't want him to just fold...
am i missing something?
would most of you bet more on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

flop bet amount is fine especially for metagame considerations.

Re: Save the money or burn it?
 

amoeba, thanks for your posts in this thread. i just fixed a big leak.

Re: Save the money or burn it?
 

The logic behind checking the turn is fine, but people who play a LAG style (i.e Grimmstar) that includes firing second barrels I think could lose some value by checking behind.

And if a LAG isn't gonna bet a strong hand like this, why should people believe him on other occasions?
Do you want to be the player that automatically shuts down whenever the third flushcard comes? (unless you have nutredrraw or the flush yourself, or obv. bluffing)

Say you have AK without diamonds, what would you have done with that hand in the same situation?

Re: Save the money or burn it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
The logic behind checking the turn is fine, but people who play a LAG style (i.e Grimmstar) that includes firing second barrels I think could lose some value by checking behind.

And if a LAG isn't gonna bet a strong hand like this, why should people believe him on other occasions?
Do you want to be the player that automatically shuts down whenever the third flushcard comes? (unless you have nutredrraw or the flush yourself, or obv. bluffing)

[/ QUOTE ]

its not inconceivable for Grim, given his LAG image to hold the flush here himself. I think a lot of worse made hands are folding.

Grim obviously has to think about whether villain is capable of playing back with less than flush here if he bets turn.

if villain will try to checkraise bluff the turn representing the flush fairly often, then betting the turn is correct.

but I don't think Grim has this knowledge.

Re: Save the money or burn it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
once again, betting the turn is a huge leak.

[/ QUOTE ]

While it may not be as big a possibility on this particular board, checking behind the turn is also more likely to induce a river bet from villain regardless of what he has here.
(Kx, 76, stupid other pocket pair, etc.)

so thats cool.

Re: Save the money or burn it?
 

[ QUOTE ]

but I don't think Grim knows how to check

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Save the money or burn it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
These guys aren't folding either if the river pairs the board so i don't mind just calling the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's why calling is good, so you can hit the boat and get paid off. Calling regardless isn't.

[/ QUOTE ]

best line is still checking behind on the turn.

and I hope none of you will come in and say something stupid like "i have to protect against 4th diamond".

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Save the money or burn it?
 

[ QUOTE ]

I imagine he probably hadn't deciced whether or not to call if the river was a blank yet. These guys aren't folding either if the river pairs the board so i don't mind just calling the turn.

I think this is a flush though about 95% of the time and would like to think i would lay down on this river but with 4:1 the call is meh.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you kidding me... 95%? You don't think people call a $25 raise pre-flop shorthanded with pocket pairs much more often than with Ax suited?

Re: Save the money or burn it?
 

[ QUOTE ]

best line is still checking behind on the turn.

and I hope none of you will come in and say something stupid like "i have to protect against 4th diamond".

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is that certainly the best line? Have you really considered the numbers behind re-raising all-in on the turn or are you basing this on the statement in this thread that says 95% of the time the guy has the flush?

If you take the time to map it out, I think you need to strongly consider re-raising all in on the turn.

Here are some of the calculations I came up with based on what I read as the likely hands you are up against. You can changes these percentages and recompute but you will still probably find that re-raising all-in on the turn make more money. At the least, I think you'll find that you should consider the all-in play on the turn.


% of Time Opponent Holds ||| % You Win (after turn card)
-----------------------------------------------------------
5% AA (w/ Ad) ||| 78% (He draws a diamond)
5% AK/KQ/KJ ||| 77%
0% QQ-TT ||| Doesn't Matter
40% Flush ||| 23% (You make a house)
40% Trips ||| 97%
5% Two Pair (54 w/ 4d) ||| 77% (He draws a diamond)
5% Bluff ||| 90%


Scenario 1:
------------------
You bet on the turn and raise all-in after the opponent's min raise.

If he holds || Assume he || You net
--------------------------------------
AA || Calls || +$520 * 78% of the time
AA || Calls || -$520 * 22% of the time
AK || Calls || +$520 * 77% of the time
AK || Calls || -$520 * 23% of the time
Flush || Calls || -$520 * 77% of the time
Flush || Calls || +$520 * 23% of the time
Two Pair || Folds || +$366 * 100% of the time
Bluff || Folds || +$366 * 100% of the time

Total EV ~ +1000


Scenario 2:
------------------
You check the turn and call a pot sized river bet only if another diamond does not appear and you don't get a house.

8 diamonds left in the deck that don't pair the board
10 cards give you a house or better
28 cards are blanks

~ 17% time diamond arrives (which kills you if he holds a single diamond like 4d4c or Ad, etc. and more importantly, kills the action)
~ 22% time you get a house or better (he may not pay you off)
~ 61% time nothing changes (you beat trips but loose to flush and possibly gain a bluff)


My Opinion
---------
I just can't see why checking behind on the turn is the best play. I cannot see how it can make you more over the long run, but maybe my math is screwy somewhere. Please run the numbers for scenario two and tell me what you come up with? I say it is about 1/2 as good of a play... especially when you consider other factors like table image and having a large stack.

Also doesn't anyone else see how you loose more money the times you opponent has a lower set and you don't get paid off vs the money you loose when he got lucky and hit some bogus flush.

Playing shorthanded can you really afford to be that big of a pushover?

Re: Save the money or burn it?
 

i do not like checking behind on the turn. you guys are being so results oriented, seeing as grim got check-raised. grim is LAG and people will pay him off with one pair hands here. you lose SO MUCH value against other hands, like top pair with/without a diamond. checking behind is such a weak play, you have a set and just because the flush draw hit does not mean that you are ALWAYS up against a flush. what about lower sets? two pair? you lose so much value by checking behind.

Re: Save the money or burn it?
 

Hi. Orange pointed the SSNL forum at this thread, and I've learned a lot from it. Thanks! I'm not good enough to put people on ranges here, but EV ~$1000 when the pot is ~$1000 (if we stack off and get called) and we're behind a lot of hands doesn't seem right to me ..

[ QUOTE ]


% of Time Opponent Holds ||| % You Win (after turn card)
-----------------------------------------------------------
5% AA (w/ Ad) ||| 78% (He draws a diamond)
5% AK/KQ/KJ ||| 77%
0% QQ-TT ||| Doesn't Matter
40% Flush ||| 23% (You make a house)
40% Trips ||| 97%
5% Two Pair (54 w/ 4d) ||| 77% (He draws a diamond)
5% Bluff ||| 90%


Scenario 1:
------------------
You bet on the turn and raise all-in after the opponent's min raise.

If he holds || Assume he || You net || This happens
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
AA || Calls || +$520 * 78% of the time || 5% of the time
AA || Calls || -$520 * 22% of the time || ..
AK || Calls || +$520 * 77% of the time || 5% of the time
AK || Calls || -$520 * 23% of the time || ..
Flush || Calls || -$520 * 77% of the time || 40% of the time
Flush || Calls || +$520 * 23% of the time || ..
<font color="red"> Trips || Calls || +$520 * 97% of the time || 40% of the time
Trips || Calls || -$520 * 3% of the time || ..</font>
Two Pair || Folds || +$366 * 100% of the time || 5% of the time
Bluff || Folds || +$366 * 100% of the time || 5% of the time

Total EV ~ +1000


[/ QUOTE ]

First, you lumped AK/KQ/KJ together as AK, right? But I think you forgot Trips in your second table.

I might be wrong, but I think you just added up the nets from your second table:

520*((0.78-0.22) + (.77-.23) + (.23-.77)) + 366 * 2 = $1023.2

Don't you mean to weight them by the numbers in your first table (I added them in bold to the second table)?

520*(0.05*(0.78-0.22) + 0.05*(.77-.23) + .4*(.23-.77) + .4*(.97-.03)) + 366*(.05 + .05) = $148.40

It's late and ya'll are better than me, so I won't comment on the ranges/percentages, but I think the above math is correct.

Re: Save the money or burn it?
 

If you are calling to try and fill up then bet less on the turn so his raise is less...as played push turn if you're going to call river. I'm unsure if turn is a clear check/bet but I have to lean towards betting around 75-80 here. Will he check raise here without a flush EVER?

Re: Save the money or burn it?
 

good math guys, keep it coming

Re: Save the money or burn it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
i do not like checking behind on the turn. you guys are being so results oriented, seeing as grim got check-raised. grim is LAG and people will pay him off with one pair hands here. you lose SO MUCH value against other hands, like top pair with/without a diamond. checking behind is such a weak play, you have a set and just because the flush draw hit does not mean that you are ALWAYS up against a flush. what about lower sets? two pair? you lose so much value by checking behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Save the money or burn it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i do not like checking behind on the turn. you guys are being so results oriented, seeing as grim got check-raised. grim is LAG and people will pay him off with one pair hands here. you lose SO MUCH value against other hands, like top pair with/without a diamond. checking behind is such a weak play, you have a set and just because the flush draw hit does not mean that you are ALWAYS up against a flush. what about lower sets? two pair? you lose so much value by checking behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

what made hands do you see paying him off? theres only 1 king out there and I highly doubt sets are playing it this slow on the flop.

if you are happy betting the turn, then you should be happy getting it all in regardless of whether 4 flush occurs on the river.

Re: Save the money or burn it?
 

QdQx, JdJx, AdXx, set, other random stuff, people who like to bluff c/r flushy turns, why give 2d2x a free shot to beat you on the river? many other reasons, too. and fine, maybe you're happy getting it all in on a diamond river (although he may bluff with the best hand with something like 2d2x) but maybe HE won't be. you should bet the turn as much because another diamond may kill your action as for the fact that it may kill your hand.

Re: Save the money or burn it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
QdQx, JdJx, AdXx, set, other random stuff, people who like to bluff c/r flushy turns

[/ QUOTE ]

if you think villain is likely to bluff c/r flushy turns a large percentage of the time then by all means bet the turn.


yes I'm giving QdQx, JdJx, etc chance to win the pot. Thats fine, its a small pot in which I've invested barely 1/10 my stack. I lose money if the 4th diamond hits and he was on one of these hands, I gain money if 4th diamond hits and he was on the flush. if the 4th diamond does not hit, I make the same regardless of whether I bet the turn or check the turn as I don't think QQ is calling a river bet should a 4th diamond not hit. With the check line however, I'm gaining an extra bet from QxQx, JxJx, etc.. made hands with no diamonds when river blanks. I think this more than equals if not overcompensates for the times that villain has a diamond, and a 4th diamond hits.

With the check, I also avoid going broke to flushes and have a free chance to bust them should the board pair.

basically I think if you are betting the turn here, then you are committed to this pot (because you believe villains range is so wide that flush is very unlikely), even if villain does something like checkraise all in. I just don't think this is the case.

I find no need to protect such a small pot with so much money behind and the ability to win a huge pot.

Re: Save the money or burn it?
 

This pot is not that small. And QdQx will call on the turn since they may be ahead and if they aren't their draw may be good. But they may c/f the river. Particularly if an ace or J hits or whatever. Both for value and for protection there is absolutely no reason not to bet this turn. Even if you're behind, you have plenty of outs. And you are ahead a vast majority of the time and should not be checking.

Re: Save the money or burn it?
 

amoeba,

i think you underestimate the times SB has something other than a flush draw with a flop check/call. and a lot of those non flush draw hands have a diamond in them

Re: Save the money or burn it?
 

If you're going to call river, might as well push turn, while you still have equity.

Re: Save the money or burn it?
 

FWIW I too think the turn is a bet (although it is much more of a bet in the 2k game than the 600). I was gonna comment a couple of days ago but after rereading amoeba's arrogant posts figured I must be missing something. I'm glad some of the others decided to chip in.