bluffing draws NLTRN
 

Which is better here: betting the river or raising the turn?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t10/t20
2 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: t1350
BB: t1650

Pre-flop: (2 players) Hero is SB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero calls t10 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t30)</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to t40</font>, Hero calls t20 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t40)</font>.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (t80, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets t80</font>, Hero calls t80 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t160)</font>.

Turn: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t240, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets t240</font>, Hero calls t240 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t480)</font>.

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (t720, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets t560</font>, BB calls t560 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t1280)</font>.

Results:
Final pot: t1840
<font color="#ffffff">Hero showed 3s Td</font>
<font color="#ffffff">BB showed Ad As</font>

Re: bluffing draws
 

folding the turn

Re: bluffing draws
 

Well if you decide to make a play then of course you have to think about who you are playing against.

But if your questions is what bluff is most likely to suceed and factor the risk then I would go for the turnraise IF I would bluff.

First of you risk less chips and second of(1 or 2 f's?) it could be pretty legitimate for a 6 to raise on the turn (a bit defensive perhaps) against a flushdraw+ a possible 10high st draw.

Re: bluffing draws
 

I think BB knows what he's doing judging by those strong bets so he'll either possibly fold to a turn raise if you have a tight image or he'll shove turn over your raise and I think this is more likely.

BTW I don't think 2BB raises are that great in the first 2 levels because your opponent is giving any drawing hands a cheap look at the flop. It's probably a better tactic when the blinds are bigger so you can take control of the hand.

Re: bluffing draws
 

Yeah BB seemed like a good player. Just checked and he had a sick ROI (&gt;30% though only over 30 games). I think it's clear he has a hand here, which means he has to be scared of the draws.

I think I like betting the turn more in retrospect, because it lets him put me on a specific hand that he can fold to. The river bet looked a lot bluffier.