UFC 63 9/23/06
 

No lines up yet except BJ V Hughes.

First off, Im not feeling this card. Its basically a UFN card hanging off of Penn v Hughes' nuts.

Right now, the only fight I plan on betting is Hughes v Penn, and I will probably load up on Hughes to the max wherever I can right before the fight, when all the pathological underdog worshippers stack up on Penn.

Pulver is probably a fairly guaranteed win and Ill put money on him if he opens around -350, but I have no reason to believe that will happen, Im expecting -550.

Once the full car's lines go up, Ill try to find some other values.

Re: UFC 63 9/23/06
 

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First off, Im not feeling this card.

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That's just a Pride OWGP hangover. I think this UFC card looks much more exciting than the previous few.

Re: UFC 63 9/23/06
 

This UFC definitely isn't Pride OWGP-like (5 killer matchups), but it does have a couple good fights. Pulver is not a UFN-calibre fighter. Let UFN have the scrubs (Diego, Shamrock), but keep guys like Oulver on the real UFC cards.

I have $500 on Penn at +181. This may increase or decrease before the fight.

Re: UFC 63 9/23/06
 

I have 500 on Hughes. Ive been 10-0 following Swope...why stop now?

Re: UFC 63 9/23/06
 

I really dont see how BJ Penn is going to win this fight.

If youve seen the last fight, it wasnt so much Penn beating Hughes, but Hughes beating himself. Penn got the takedown early basically because Hughes took a horrible halfass shot that just put himself on his back. Then when Penn mounted Hughes, he rolled to his stomach right away which is the worst thing that he couldve done and would never do now.

Hughes has gotten so much better since that fight. Hughes' striking continues to get better and better as hes been training in the best camp in the UFC...whereas Penn has taken most of the time since then off. When they are on their feet, Hughes should get the best of Penn.

Penn is a great jiu-jitsu guy, but we saw Matt Hughes out jiu-jitsu Royce Gracie. Put that on top of the fact that I cant imagine Penn taking Hughes down, and I just dont see an aspect of the fight where the advantage would go to Penn.

And lets not forget that Penn took up this fight on short notice. And that Hughes is avenging a loss which will give him a mental edge and extra fire to train harder.

Hughes -206 seems way off to me and an extremely valuable bet.

Re: UFC 63 9/23/06
 

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I really dont see how BJ Penn is going to win this fight.

If youve seen the last fight, it wasnt so much Penn beating Hughes, but Hughes beating himself. Penn got the takedown early basically because Hughes took a horrible halfass shot that just put himself on his back. Then when Penn mounted Hughes, he rolled to his stomach right away which is the worst thing that he couldve done and would never do now.

Hughes has gotten so much better since that fight. Hughes' striking continues to get better and better as hes been training in the best camp in the UFC...whereas Penn has taken most of the time since then off. When they are on their feet, Hughes should get the best of Penn.

Penn is a great jiu-jitsu guy, but we saw Matt Hughes out jiu-jitsu Royce Gracie. Put that on top of the fact that I cant imagine Penn taking Hughes down, and I just dont see an aspect of the fight where the advantage would go to Penn.

And lets not forget that Penn took up this fight on short notice. And that Hughes is avenging a loss which will give him a mental edge and extra fire to train harder.

Hughes -206 seems way off to me and an extremely valuable bet.

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Well, while I think Hughes is definately the favorite...I think to say that you can't see how Penn can win this fight is clearly a lack of imagination.

Penn only recently came back to the UFC, but he's fought in the interim (since the last Hughes matchup).

Penn has the EXACT skills needed to beat Hughes (one of the few guys in the world). If you say Penn can't beat Hughes, then you are basically saying no one in the world can beat Hughes (which isn't a horrible statement, but i think it's possible).

Penn has great wrestling skills. He can fight a takedown as good as just about anyone. It takes a lot of effort to get him down.

Next, Penn is a jui-jitsu prodigy. To suggest that Hughes can hang with him in this discipline is naive. I think Hughes has VERY good submissions, but he's not as good as Penn.

Next, Penn is better of the feet. Plain and simple. I don't see how this can be argued. Hughes is competent on his feet...but he's not nearly as skilled as Penn.

And finally...Penn doesn't get finished. He's fought great fighters, and I don't ever remember seeing him get knocked out, or submitted. I saw him lose a decision to Pulver, I saw him lose a decision to Pierre...but he was never close to getting finished.

This fight could go 5 rounds. Hughes isn't use to going 5 rounds. I know Hughes is in great shape...but going 5 rounds is hard for anyone. In the 5th round, could Penn make something happen?

I don't know. Penn will, without doubt, have to be at the top of his game. Most importantly, he will have to be in great shape. If he does that, I have no doubt in my mind he has the tools to win the fight.

However, Hughes is always capable of taking the guy down, and throwing elbows for 5 rounds. If Penn isn't ready, I have no doubt this is how it will go. Regardless...this is NOT a mis-match.

Re: UFC 63 9/23/06
 

I totally agree that Pulver is not UFN calibre, but Id rather watch him train for free than pay to see him unhinge some no-names jaw in the first 30 seconds.

Re: UFC 63 9/23/06
 

BJ will look impressive in the first round, gas and then get dominated for the rest of the fight. Hughes is biger, stronger, and better conditioned. When was the last time BJ looked really impressive for more than 5 minutes in a fight? Its going on 4 years now.

Re: UFC 63 9/23/06
 

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Penn only recently came back to the UFC, but he's fought in the interim (since the last Hughes matchup).

Penn has the EXACT skills needed to beat Hughes (one of the few guys in the world). If you say Penn can't beat Hughes, then you are basically saying no one in the world can beat Hughes (which isn't a horrible statement, but i think it's possible).

Penn has great wrestling skills. He can fight a takedown as good as just about anyone. It takes a lot of effort to get him down.

Next, Penn is a jui-jitsu prodigy. To suggest that Hughes can hang with him in this discipline is naive. I think Hughes has VERY good submissions, but he's not as good as Penn.

Next, Penn is better of the feet. Plain and simple. I don't see how this can be argued. Hughes is competent on his feet...but he's not nearly as skilled as Penn.

And finally...Penn doesn't get finished. He's fought great fighters, and I don't ever remember seeing him get knocked out, or submitted. I saw him lose a decision to Pulver, I saw him lose a decision to Pierre...but he was never close to getting finished.

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Much of this analysis seems to indicate that you think that Penn should be a much smaller dog, possibly even a favorite.

I don't want this to come off as a criticism, I'm just interested in finding out if my suspicion is correct. I only know a little about UFC from becoming a recent fan.

Re: UFC 63 9/23/06
 

Free,

I tend to agree with the analysis you quoted. I think Hughes is the favorite, but Penn is not as big of a dog as some have suggested in here. The only real vulnerability that Hughes has shown in his matches are to submissions and as was pointed out, Penn is a very good jiujitsu practicioner. Id say Hughes is more well rounded and has the edge in conditioning. Also, the revenge factor for Hughes cant be underestimated. But by no means do I personally think Penn is a huge underdog.