World Series Experiment
 

I decided to try to use my Strat-o-matic baseball simulator to make picks on the series this year. I've updated all players based on their 2007 stats.So far I've played Game 1 Francis vs. Beckett 50 times (due to time constraints, small sample, I know) for a record of COL-24 BOS-26. That'd make Strat's price on the Rockies around +110, as opposed to the posted odds of +190, for a conceivable pick. Also, the sim says the total should be 9.22, which is too close for a pick on the total. But, if at all accurate, the Rockies have value at +190. Let the experiment begin.

Strat-o-matic Game 1 pick: COL +190 for 1 unit
YTD 0-0, 0 units

Re: World Series Experiment
 

What is this strat-o-matic? Where did you get it? And why didn't you run the simulation more than 50 times?
Edit: I guess it was due to time constraints, how long does it take to run one simulation?

Re: World Series Experiment
 

www.strat-o-matic.com

It only takes a few seconds to run the sim, but between renovating my house and playing poker I don't have much time at all. Most of my time went to updating rosters and adjusting players cards to perform as they did this season.

Re: World Series Experiment
 

I ran 50 more games, for a total of 100. COL-49 BOS-51

Re: World Series Experiment
 

Fade the strange contraption.

Re: World Series Experiment
 

JTreez - I think that basing on your bets on strat-o-matic results is kind of wacky.

Re: World Series Experiment
 

I grew up playing strat o matic with my brother. Well done and good luck.

Re: World Series Experiment
 

Quite possibly. This is just an experiment, I'm not putting a red cent on this.

Re: World Series Experiment
 

[ QUOTE ]
Quite possibly. This is just an experiment, I'm not putting a red cent on this.

[/ QUOTE ]

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/po...rd=sportevents

Re: World Series Experiment
 

Strat-o-matic?!?!

LOL.

Good luck! The thought of doing the same actually crossed my mind on one occasion.

Has anyone thought of using "Pizza Box Football"

http://www.boardgamegeek.com/game/17851

To calculate spreads, ML's and totals?

LOL.

Re: World Series Experiment
 

I tried another experiment. I thought about it logically and said one team has experience and an established ace and one team had a long layoff with a rookie pitcher. And won 450.

By the way thats a sweet website. lol.

Re: World Series Experiment
 

[ QUOTE ]
I tried another experiment. I thought about it logically and said one team has experience and an established ace and one team had a long layoff with a rookie pitcher. And won 450.

By the way thats a sweet website. lol.

[/ QUOTE ]

genius idea!! whats your insight for game 2?

team out for revenge after embarrassment on the national stage?

pitcher that everyone says is washed up and over the hill throwing one last great game before his exit?

Re: World Series Experiment
 

[ QUOTE ]
Strat-o-matic?!?!

LOL.

Good luck! The thought of doing the same actually crossed my mind on one occasion.

[/ QUOTE ]

you might be surprised how close my handicapping method is to strat-o-matic, but with much more accurate inputs.

Re: World Series Experiment
 

[ QUOTE ]
you might be surprised how close my handicapping method is to strat-o-matic, but with much more accurate inputs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not when you consider that strat-o-matic was one of the first pioneers of sabermetrics.

Re: World Series Experiment
 

Anyone like Colorado in game 2?
ML or spread?

I bet alot on beckett but i dont feel as confident with curt.

Im thinking 1.5u on the rockies at +1.5

Re: World Series Experiment
 

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone like Colorado in game 2?
ML or spread?

I bet alot on beckett but i dont feel as confident with curt.

Im thinking 1.5u on the rockies at +1.5

[/ QUOTE ]

Jazzy you really have to have a price associated with COL +1.5. I mean if you got COL +1.5 at +200 that owuld be great, but if you had COL +1.5 at -200 it owuld be horrible. YOu cannot just think to blindly bet with out ocnsidering the price. What percentage of the time does col win or loss by a run? Translate that to a price. IF you don't trust curt why play COL +1.5 versus the moneyline? Do you think that the red sox win this often by one run?

Re: World Series Experiment
 

the line im getting is +175, since I am getting positive odds i want to take the one run as opposed to the ML

Re: World Series Experiment
 

You are gettin COL +1.5 at +175? Where?

Re: World Series Experiment
 

its dropped to +170, but its available at dsi

sorry i misread it. thats the ML. the one run is EV.

Re: World Series Experiment
 

My much maligned Strat experiment gives the Rockies a %45 percent chance to win after 100 games in Game 2. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] So the price for the Rockies is around +115 according to my sim. The projected total is 10.68. close to the actual 10.

Also, I'd LOVE to hear more about your method Crockpot, as I'm interested in using sims to bet on a more serious level.


So, tonight it's the Rockies again at +182.

YTD 0-1, -1 unit