OESD against TAG, but river sucks...
 

Button is 27/19/1.33 over 74 hands. His attempt to steal number is 35.29%. What's the best play on the river here?

PokerStars 3/6 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (4.33 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls.

Turn: (4.16 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.

River: (6.16 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero ?

Re: OESD against TAG, but river sucks...
 

i think you get no value by betting against a worse hand with the ace showing up. you might get value from a worse hand or a missed draw representing the ace though. we know him having a T here is unlikely.

so guesstimate: the frequency of him bluffing scare cards.

personally, if i have no idea of his frequencies, i call here this once.

Re: OESD against TAG, but river sucks...
 

I would consider a semi-bluff on turn in this hand since the board is pretty dry you are quite likely to get a fold there.

On river: Will he call anything you beat? Will he bet anything you beat? Will he fold any better hands if you bet? Not much on villain but I think you can check/fold often here since I don't expect him to bluff often enough. And I don't think he'll call many worse hands and never fold a better hand.

Re: OESD against TAG, but river sucks...
 

I'd check call here. I actually don't think he has an A much here, unless he made A's up. Thats a pretty tough turn to call with just A high. He can have a lot of missed straight draws that bluff this river. You do miss value from small PP's though...so I'd check call but I think bet/fold is good too.

Re: OESD against TAG, but river sucks...
 

This is pretty close to c/f. I guess we don't have much of a read though.