QQ hand folded face up beginning of WSOP FT
 

I don't know if this is the right forum, but I thought the hand was interesting. Blinds 120K/240K/30K, both players have about 12M. Childs raises to 720 UTG, Yang reraises to 2K in 2nd position. Childs calls. The flop comes low cards. Childs bets 3K, Yang push, and Childs folds QQ face up. How do you play this if you are Childs? Do you flat call the reraise. As played, do you lead the flop? As played, do you fold to the push?

Re: QQ hand folded face up beginning of WSOP FT
 

im confused by the numbers [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: QQ hand folded face up beginning of WSOP FT
 

Lee Childs is simply terrible at poker.

Re: QQ hand folded face up beginning of WSOP FT
 

From Pokernews.com:

Hand #9 - Hevad 'Rain' Khan has the button in seat 9, Lee Childs raises under the gun to 720,000, Jerry Yang reraises from early position to 2.5 million, and Childs calls. There is already 5.63 million in the pot.

The flop comes {7-Clubs}{4-Diamonds}{2-Clubs}, Childs bets 3 million, and Yang immediately moves all in. Childs stands up and turns around with his back to the table while he thinks. He clearly wasn't expecting Yang to push.

Jerry Yang has about 770,000 more in chips than Childs, so Childs would be calling with his tournament life at stake. Childs sits back down to the table as he thinks for about three minutes.

Childs eventually folds, showing pocket queens. Jerry Yang takes the pot worth 11.63 million.

Childs started the hand w/ about 13.2 million and Yang had roughly 13.9 million.

Re: QQ hand folded face up beginning of WSOP FT
 

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im confused by the numbers [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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please elaborate

Re: QQ hand folded face up beginning of WSOP FT
 

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Lee Childs is simply terrible at poker.

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Based on this hand? Or others?

Re: QQ hand folded face up beginning of WSOP FT
 

Yang's image (ie: raise/c-bet UTG first hand of FT, reraise BB next hand) is somehwat important here. Dubious play becomes dreadful play.

Anyway, pf fine, flop c/c or c/r. Yang's always going to bet it for us. I'd probably check-shove.

Re: QQ hand folded face up beginning of WSOP FT
 

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Lee Childs is simply terrible at poker.

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Based on this hand? Or others?

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I havnt seen him play any other hands besides this, but he just cannot be good based on this one. It's that bad.

Re: QQ hand folded face up beginning of WSOP FT
 

even worse when you take into account that he said yang could do that with JJ/TT when he was interviewed by Gordon on the ppv.

Re: QQ hand folded face up beginning of WSOP FT
 

lol.

Re: QQ hand folded face up beginning of WSOP FT
 

Just say yang's range is
TT+, AcKc
Then Childs is 50/50...

Childs ADMITTED Yang's range was this wide and I am pretty damn sure Yang's range is wider than that

Childs played this hand terribly.

Re: QQ hand folded face up beginning of WSOP FT
 

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Just say yang's range is
TT+, AcKc
Then Childs is 50/50...

Childs ADMITTED Yang's range was this wide and I am pretty damn sure Yang's range is wider than that

Childs played this hand terribly.

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That range is waaaay too tight.

Re: QQ hand folded face up beginning of WSOP FT
 

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Just say yang's range is
TT+, AcKc
Then Childs is 50/50...

Childs ADMITTED Yang's range was this wide and I am pretty damn sure Yang's range is wider than that

Childs played this hand terribly.

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That range is waaaay too tight.

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I agree.

I am just saying.

Even if Yang's range is that tight, Childs is 50/50 and his fold is abysmal.

Re: QQ hand folded face up beginning of WSOP FT
 

FWIW, Yang's range would have to be QQ+,AcKc or tighter for Childs to correctly fold.

If the range is as tight as JJ+,AcKc, the fold is wrong. And Childs ADMITTED TT and JJ were possible holdings for Yang.

Re: QQ hand folded face up beginning of WSOP FT
 

The fact he folded it face up is even worse...

Re: QQ hand folded face up beginning of WSOP FT
 

Well, it was clear that Childs just crashed under pressure. He didn't want to go out in 9th place.
Fold was pretty bad. Fold face up was awful and became one of the reasons Yang ran over the table afterwards.

Re: QQ hand folded face up beginning of WSOP FT
 

ahh, the good old live line of "I'll pot it with the third nuts to find out where I'm at"

Re: QQ hand folded face up beginning of WSOP FT
 

Sorry, when it says 3k and 2k I guess it means 2 million. Guess thats pretty obv though.

Re: QQ hand folded face up beginning of WSOP FT
 

Really...
I have done dumber things in my life than this I expect.

But I've never done something this stupid and then admitted on national TV I thought his range was 50/50 with me yet I folded getting 2.1:1 odds.

ANYONE can FT the ME. ANYONE.

Re: QQ hand folded face up beginning of WSOP FT
 

You can't think in terms of ranges here. Yang reraised an UTG raiser in 2nd position, so AA or KK is way more likely than JJ or TT, even if JJ/TT is "in his range". Still you have to get the money in given Yang's image.

I really doubt Yang had a middle pp. I think it was probably AA/KK or AK, but it it could be a move with anything.

Re: QQ hand folded face up beginning of WSOP FT
 

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lol.

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Re: QQ hand folded face up beginning of WSOP FT
 

Put a % on each possible holding

Convince me this fold was correct.

You can weight KK and AA at 2x that of JJ and TT and thit is still very easily a call.

Essentially, you need to be pretty damn confident Yang has KK or AA here. You are telling me Yang has KK or AA 70% of the time here? I seriously doubt it.

Re: QQ hand folded face up beginning of WSOP FT
 

BTW, when I read "you can't think in terms of ranges here", I think "so we aren't playing poker here?"

When I play poker, I am ALWAYS thinking in terms of ranges. I thought that was the object of the frigging game - to narrow your opponent's RANGE of possible holdings based on the information he has given you.

Re: QQ hand folded face up beginning of WSOP FT
 

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Put a % on each possible holding

Convince me this fold was correct.

You can weight KK and AA at 2x that of JJ and TT and thit is still very easily a call.

Essentially, you need to be pretty damn confident Yang has KK or AA here. You are telling me Yang has KK or AA 70% of the time here? I seriously doubt it.

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Do you think the preflop re-raise rules out a set?

Re: QQ hand folded face up beginning of WSOP FT
 

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BTW, when I read "you can't think in terms of ranges here", I think "so we aren't playing poker here?"

When I play poker, I am ALWAYS thinking in terms of ranges. I thought that was the object of the frigging game - to narrow your opponent's RANGE of possible holdings based on the information he has given you.

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Well, you think incorrectly. You can't look it as a range like in Poker Stove. Yang can have TT, but he doesn't have TT nearly as often as AA. I think the distribution looks something like this:

AA/KK 40%
AK 30%
99-QQ 20%
??? 10%

Re: QQ hand folded face up beginning of WSOP FT
 

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BTW, when I read "you can't think in terms of ranges here", I think "so we aren't playing poker here?"

When I play poker, I am ALWAYS thinking in terms of ranges. I thought that was the object of the frigging game - to narrow your opponent's RANGE of possible holdings based on the information he has given you.

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Well, you think incorrectly. You can't look it as a range like in Poker Stove. Yang can have TT, but he doesn't have TT nearly as often as AA. I think the distribution looks something like this:

AA/KK 40%
AK 30%
99-QQ 20%
??? 10%

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Betgo, I really do not think AA/KK is twice as likely as TT-QQ. Didn't he put like 10 million in preflop with A9 earlier at the FT?

Re: QQ hand folded face up beginning of WSOP FT
 

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BTW, when I read "you can't think in terms of ranges here", I think "so we aren't playing poker here?"

When I play poker, I am ALWAYS thinking in terms of ranges. I thought that was the object of the frigging game - to narrow your opponent's RANGE of possible holdings based on the information he has given you.

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Well, you think incorrectly. You can't look it as a range like in Poker Stove. Yang can have TT, but he doesn't have TT nearly as often as AA. I think the distribution looks something like this:

AA/KK 40%
AK 30%
99-QQ 20%
??? 10%

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No I do not think incorrectly. I said put a % on them. Putting a percentage on what he may hold IS narrowing the range.

With those percentages, it is so easily a call it's not even funny.

Re: QQ hand folded face up beginning of WSOP FT
 

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BTW, when I read "you can't think in terms of ranges here", I think "so we aren't playing poker here?"

When I play poker, I am ALWAYS thinking in terms of ranges. I thought that was the object of the frigging game - to narrow your opponent's RANGE of possible holdings based on the information he has given you.

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Well, you think incorrectly. You can't look it as a range like in Poker Stove. Yang can have TT, but he doesn't have TT nearly as often as AA. I think the distribution looks something like this:

AA/KK 40%
AK 30%
99-QQ 20%
??? 10%

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Betgo, I really do not think AA/KK is twice as likely as TT-QQ. Didn't he put like 10 million in preflop with A9 earlier at the FT?

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I think my distribution is fairly reasonable. People tend to flat call an early position raise with JJ/TT. He could flat call with AA/KK too, but he is more liekly to reraise. Yang could also have AQ, a suited gapper or whatever. I said 40% chance he has AA/KK. I think this is conservative. Against a tight player it would be a lot higher.

Given the opponent, I think you have to reraise allin preflop or checkraise allin on the flop. However, it would be a mistake to put people on ranges and assume QQ was usually good in this situation.

Re: QQ hand folded face up beginning of WSOP FT
 

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However, it would be a mistake to put people on ranges and assume QQ was usually good in this situation.

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No it would be a mistake to say "OMG RERAISE FROM MID POSITION OMG KK OR AA OMG FOLD"

Re: QQ hand folded face up beginning of WSOP FT
 

On a scale of horribleness this flop bet is approximately 300 million.

Re: QQ hand folded face up beginning of WSOP FT
 

and what was up with gordon advocating a call PF/lead flop line OOP like every 3 minutes during the broadcast? such retarded advice.

Re: QQ hand folded face up beginning of WSOP FT
 

At the beginning of the broadcast, FWIW (probably less than nothing), Phil Gordon described Jerry Yang as both weak and tight. At least at the final table, he was neither, but perhaps Childs had that in his head as Yang's image going into this hand.

I don't think you can say AA or KK is more likely than AK preflop, AK is statistically more likely than both combined, and I can't imagine someone not reraising with AK in that situation.

This is a tough spot for Childs. He's out of position, and he's not going to know he's beat until he gets all his chips in bad.

These are his options:

1. Shove preflop, he'll probably get called by AA, KK or AK (but I'm not sure about AK, I sure as hell wouldn't fold AK there), and get JJ- to fold. Result: 80-20 dog to AA or KK, flip with AK, win against other hands.

2. Call preflop and then shove or check-raise a flop without an overcard. You're going broke either way if you're beat, might as well check raise rather than shove to get more money in the pot. Result: if A or K flops, just lose the call; if they don't, get AK to fold (probably), get called and 92-8 dog against AA or KK; no idea what result against JJ, TT or 99, maybe get them to call the C/R and be a huge favorite in a huge pot.

3. Call trying to flop a set if you're not willing to take a chance on going broke in the hand, which seems too weak to even contemplate.

I would not even put what he did, call and then weak lead on raggy flop, as an option on the list because against a halfway decent player you will get put all in every single time -- you are screaming that you have an overpair but are not willing to go all the way with it. Which is why it would be a good way to play a flopped set here, but nothing else.

I'd probably just shove preflop, although calling and then check-raising all-in if an A or K doesn't flop could be better. Or I'd fold preflop and when asked about it on TV, say I had KQ and your hole card camera must not have picked it up right if you thought I had QQ. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: QQ hand folded face up beginning of WSOP FT
 

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However, it would be a mistake to put people on ranges and assume QQ was usually good in this situation.

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No it would be a mistake to say "OMG RERAISE FROM MID POSITION OMG KK OR AA OMG FOLD"

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It was a 2nd position reraise of an UTG raise. I don't think you should think you are necessarily against AA or KK. However, if you look at it in terms of ranges and say TT+, AK, I am way ahead of that, it is very misleading. Against some players, this is almost always AA or KK.

Re: QQ hand folded face up beginning of WSOP FT
 

so how much time did childs play with yang before the FT? think a perspective on how much of a read he had on him before that hand is very relevant - if he thought he was w/t then its not a bad fold - but based on all the smarts we have now it sure doesnt appear to be, but in fairness we're looking at this in 20/20 hindsight

Re: QQ hand folded face up beginning of WSOP FT
 

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so how much time did childs play with yang before the FT? think a perspective on how much of a read he had on him before that hand is very relevant - if he thought he was w/t then its not a bad fold - but based on all the smarts we have now it sure doesnt appear to be, but in fairness we're looking at this in 20/20 hindsight

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Childs had played with Yang the day before. I can't believe he thought Yang was weak/tight.

Yang got here by pushing A3s after two raises on a semibluff and getting called by KK. Of course he had an ideal hand against KK other than AA. I am not sure whether he cold pushed, limpreraised, or had put in the initial raise and 5-bet. This happened in earlier rounds and I saw different versions.

Against a random player, I agree you want to get allin with QQ, although it is close. Without knowing anything else, you could profile Yang as an Asian and not real old, and think he mioght be aggressive.

I don't disagree with getting your money in here. I just diagree with using evenly distributed ranges.

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did anyone ask yang what he had yet? or is he bound to espn not to devulge? seems a bit odd that it hasnt leaked out by now

Re: QQ hand folded face up beginning of WSOP FT
 

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Really...
I have done dumber things in my life than this I expect.

But I've never done something this stupid and then admitted on national TV I thought his range was 50/50 with me yet I folded getting 2.1:1 odds.

ANYONE can FT the ME. ANYONE.

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This is a clear example of the sirio11 theorem on artificial pot odds in play.
2.1:1 odds are irrelevant because he created them.

Re: QQ hand folded face up beginning of WSOP FT
 

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Really...
I have done dumber things in my life than this I expect.

But I've never done something this stupid and then admitted on national TV I thought his range was 50/50 with me yet I folded getting 2.1:1 odds.

ANYONE can FT the ME. ANYONE.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a clear example of the sirio11 theorem on artificial pot odds in play.
2.1:1 odds are irrelevant because he created them.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're going to need to explain that to me. (link to this theorem? I have not read it)

Re: QQ hand folded face up beginning of WSOP FT
 

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Really...
I have done dumber things in my life than this I expect.

But I've never done something this stupid and then admitted on national TV I thought his range was 50/50 with me yet I folded getting 2.1:1 odds.

ANYONE can FT the ME. ANYONE.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a clear example of the sirio11 theorem on artificial pot odds in play.
2.1:1 odds are irrelevant because he created them.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're going to need to explain that to me. (link to this theorem? I have not read it)

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His theory, if I remember correctly isn't about the call after you bet. It is about the original bet. After the bet was made, there are no theories, just simple addition and division. I win X if I have the best hand, I have to risk Y. My odds are X/Y. After the bet is made, it doesn't matter if the chips fell from heaven the odds are the odds.

What I assume you are talking about is the fact that you need to think the hand in entirety. For example, someone semibluffs, and is reraised. They now have odds to call on the draw. But, if you look at the hand in total, they just got there money in without the proper odds. That doesn't mean you should fold after you made the bet, but maybe you need a better line than making a big bet originally.

Re: QQ hand folded face up beginning of WSOP FT
 

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[ QUOTE ]
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Really...
I have done dumber things in my life than this I expect.

But I've never done something this stupid and then admitted on national TV I thought his range was 50/50 with me yet I folded getting 2.1:1 odds.

ANYONE can FT the ME. ANYONE.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a clear example of the sirio11 theorem on artificial pot odds in play.
2.1:1 odds are irrelevant because he created them.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're going to need to explain that to me. (link to this theorem? I have not read it)

[/ QUOTE ]

His theory, if I remember correctly isn't about the call after you bet. It is about the original bet. After the bet was made, there are no theories, just simple addition and division. I win X if I have the best hand, I have to risk Y. My odds are X/Y. After the bet is made, it doesn't matter if the chips fell from heaven the odds are the odds.

What I assume you are talking about is the fact that you need to think the hand in entirety. For example, someone semibluffs, and is reraised. They now have odds to call on the draw. But, if you look at the hand in total, they just got there money in without the proper odds. That doesn't mean you should fold after you made the bet, but maybe you need a better line than making a big bet originally.

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Ok... so he should have checkraised all in, I agree.

But given his line a fold is not an option.

Really am I this loose? When he flipped over queens I threw up a little in my mouth. Am I THAT loose? I honestly do not even see a debate here. CALL. CALL. CALL. C/R next time maybe but in this case CALL CALL CALL.