Bottom set river decision
 

25/50 6max game

utg raises to $100, 4 callers including me on the button with 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

FLOP ($500) 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

checked around

TURN: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

checks to CO who bets $380, I raise to $1350. He thinks a long time and calls.

River ($3200) K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

He checks.

Effective stacks behind on the river are $3600

Re: Bottom set river decision
 

check - his flush draw got there, straight draw missed, and I can't put him on any other hand that you beat that would call a large bet here (AK unlikely). if you do bet, I think you have to fold to c/r

99 or TT possible, but unlikely to call a decent size bet

Re: Bottom set river decision
 

agree i'd check here

Re: Bottom set river decision
 

i'd shove. if you can't get paid off by worse here you should bluff more. i think he's a 1 pair or 2 pair hand way way way more often than he's a flush.

Re: Bottom set river decision
 

I think it's slightly relevant who the other callers were pre flop. If one is UTG+1 for instance, we can loosen CO's pre flop calling range here.

If it was CO, you, and the two blinds, his range to see the flop is a bit different.

Maybe I'm being nitty?

Re: Bottom set river decision
 

check. few/no worse hands will pay you here unless they think you're crazy, and he's never folding a better one (which he has a fair amount of the time i think)

Re: Bottom set river decision
 

I've never checked a set on the river with a backdoor flush coming but this might be a time that I do.

Re: Bottom set river decision
 

read on villian?

Re: Bottom set river decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
i'd shove. if you can't get paid off by worse here you should bluff more. i think he's a 1 pair or 2 pair hand way way way more often than he's a flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

2pair is possible, but I think 2pair would have reraised turn once it was HU b/c of the draws out there, or if he didn't raise turn, now fold the river b/c the flush came. Both of these scenarios would advocate checking.

Plus remember how strong HEK looks here to villian.
He raised the turn into 3 opponents (an important observation here I think), and is now betting again when the backdoor flush hits. I think villian is unlikely to call 2pair or lower here.

So unless read on villian is that he will call light or that HEK has a laggy image, neither of which he mentioned, I still believe checking is the stronger play.

Re: Bottom set river decision
 

i think chking is better too. i feel like i everytime i shove here, feeling smug, i get snap called by 33.

Re: Bottom set river decision
 

no reads/history? i just shove but it's close..

Re: Bottom set river decision
 

If effective stacks were $15k on river, would anybody like bet/folding? Or do people still check in that situation?

What about an underbet of $1200 with plans on folding to a c/r?

Re: Bottom set river decision
 

The only way I see the CO has us beat is if he has 64/A4/some club draw that also had a combo draw on the turn. That's just too narrow a range compared to all the weaker hands he could pay off with for me not to value bet here. Do you really think most players bet a hand like Qc Tc there on the turn and then call this large raise expecting to get paid off by worse if a club hits?

And if he did river a flush, wouldn't he often lead the river? I just think you're good here too often.

Re: Bottom set river decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
I've never checked a set on the river with a backdoor flush coming but this might be a time that I do.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Bottom set river decision
 

1000

Re: Bottom set river decision
 

to people saying bet or shove, what hands are we putting villian on that plays this way and will also call river when we are good.

Re: Bottom set river decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
to people saying bet or shove, what hands are we putting villian on that plays this way and will also call river when we are good.

[/ QUOTE ]

people do lots of "pot odds" calls when you give them a really nice price, but im not sure if its all that good here.

Re: Bottom set river decision
 

I tanked and bet $2000 cuz i hate checking sets, he INSTA minraised it back putting me all in for only $1600 more. I quickly folded.

He showed 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]