KK 3-way capped pot. Ace flops. Your plan?
 

I open K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] UTG, folded to SB (60/15 donk) who calls, unknown BB makes it 3, I make it 4, SB obv calls.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (12 SB)

SB leads, BB folds, Hero... calls down?

Further question: If I peel the flop, I obviously call any [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] turn. Does anyone peel the flop and fold any non[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or non K turn?

Or is calling all the way down best?

Re: KK 3-way capped pot. Ace flops. Your plan?
 

I wouldnt fold

Re: KK 3-way capped pot. Ace flops. Your plan?
 

Is it weird that I don't ever remember being in this spot after 100,000+ hands?
I don't think calling down or folding right away are bad; I wouldn't peel & muck the turn though.

Re: KK 3-way capped pot. Ace flops. Your plan?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Is it weird that I don't ever remember being in this spot after 100,000+ hands?
I don't think calling down or folding right away are bad; I wouldn't peel & muck the turn though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have 600,000 hands; feels like I've been in this spot for 498,000 of them.

Re: KK 3-way capped pot. Ace flops. Your plan?
 

why isnt peel and fold UI in ur list of choices McGahee? not trying to be a wise ass at all just want to understand.

Re: KK 3-way capped pot. Ace flops. Your plan?
 

I'd reraise...
If they just have aces and not 2 pair or trips it might buy you a free river but utg maybe not. It does buy info for 1/2 a big bet.

Re: KK 3-way capped pot. Ace flops. Your plan?
 

As a default , especially against a 60/15 "donk" I think it's a definite call down.

Let's say your range here is
AK,AA,KK,QQ and BB's range is AJs, AQ+, KQs, 99+
Remove one ace and one nine from the distributions because it's on the board and the probability that ONE of you doesn't have an ace or 99 is.

You = 12 AK, 3 AA, 6 KK, 6 QQ therefore ~ 12/27 times you dont have an ace.

BB = 3 AJs, 4 KQs, 12 AK, 12 AQ, 3 AA, 6 KK, 6 QQ, 6 JJ, 6 TT, 3 99
~ 28/61 times BB doesnt have an ace

I don't want to go through the math of the card depdencies , so I'll assume indepence of distribution.
A little less (because of card removal effects ) than 288/1539 ,19% of the time neither of you will have an ace.

So If you guys fold your non ace hands
EV = P(!Ace)*(Potsize) - P(Ace)*(Bet)
= .19*12 - .81*1 = +1.47 SB

For an immediate profit of Almost a BB each time this scenario arises. This is much too high and exploitable. This was also considering a 0% equity which will often not be the case , for example when he's semi-bluffing or caught a peice of the board.

Therefore it cannot be correct to fold KK here against an unknown. Making it so you fold KK 0% on the flop, x% on the turn, and y% on the river, and call down AK to the river and raise it. This way he is indifferent to bluffing. This is probabily close to the optimal strategy. But as a default I'd rather just call down 100% until you get a read.

Against certain very tight/predictable opponents I'd peel 0 , 1 or 2 streets and fold but this is rare and requires a good read.

I like raising never.

Re: KK 3-way capped pot. Ace flops. Your plan?
 

I have no way of knowing if your calculations are correct, but awesome analysis!


I called the flop, the turn came A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and I felt a lot better about my chances (and called), the river was a brick, he bet and I called again, he had 66.

Re: KK 3-way capped pot. Ace flops. Your plan?
 

[ QUOTE ]
why isnt peel and fold UI in ur list of choices McGahee? not trying to be a wise ass at all just want to understand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just don't think an unknown (or anyone really) is going to check the turn. Besides, are you really going to fold the river the times you turn a heart?

Re: KK 3-way capped pot. Ace flops. Your plan?
 

i call down here 99% of the time against a 60/15, he could easily have a flush draw. Another option is raising the flop and folding to a 3 bet and betting down if just called. This could be costly tho and not the best play.