Second Sino-Japanese War
 

Arright this is kind of random, but I was surfing wiki, and I stumbled upon this element of our modern history that I was never taught in school.

Anyway, I skimmed the article:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Sino-Japanese_War

and was left wondering, did USA prevent Japan from taking China over? I looked over the estimated casualties from 3rd party sources, and it seemed that Japan was not phased, while China was really hurting (death toll wise, and economically).

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...tion_-_Map.jpg

The purple shows how far Japanese control extended. From my understanding the war btwn China and Japan ended when USA declared war on Japan, and dropped two bombs on it.

So what I am asking is; what if Japan never instigated USA?

Re: Second Sino-Japanese War
 

Pretty much the Japanese slaughtered them. I doubt the Japense would ever have tried to invade inner china though, all the cool stuff is on the coasts.

Re: Second Sino-Japanese War
 

Japan was not really planning on starting a war with the US. Despite our declared neutrality we put some heavy duty economic sanctions on Japan which screwed over their war effort. We stopped giving them oil and we started to back the Chinese.

If we had remained neutral and allowed Japan to massacre the Chinese people with biological weapons? I don't know what would have happened, I assume Japan would have a strong hold on some terroritory in China today. It's hard to say though since so much of history would have been drastically changed had they never done the whole pearl harbor thing.

Although with the sanctions their war effort was slowing down so they probably would have not gone much further after that.

Re: Second Sino-Japanese War
 

After either fully conquering China or simply occupying the entire eastern part, Japan likely would have created several smaller puppet states, which would be easier to control than 1 large puppet. At this point in its history China was already divided into several small states, including Nationalist China (the largest and most powerful), Communist China, and the various warlord cliques. Obviously administering China directly would never work do to continued guerrilla warfare against the occupying forces.

Stalemate
 

[ QUOTE ]
So what I am asking is; what if Japan never instigated USA?

[/ QUOTE ]
The Japanese offensive would have bogged down and the war would have been an endless war of attrition. Japan's advantages were having armor (though it was crappy armor) and complete control of the seas. This allowed Japan to take the plains and coastal areas. But the deeper they went into China the more problems they had keeping their troops supplied. Chinese partisans were a huge nuisance. When Japan's oil ran out because of the oil embargo (UK, USA, Netherlands) then Japan would have lost its advantage with regard to having armored forces.

China had an overwhelming reserve of mnapower. In a war of attrition, Japan is forced to make peace. At best Japan might be able to create another puppet state in Shanxi. Also keep in mind that the Chinese Communist were NOT using their full armies against Japan. Their strategy was to let the Nationalists do the heavy lifting and once Japan gave up....resume the civil war against the nationalist that had been bled white against the Japanese. The communists were getting their ass kicked by the Nationalists. The Marco Polo Bridge inicident is what saved them. Quite a few historians believe it was the Communists the attacked the Japanese at the Marco Polo bridge to start this war. And I agree with these historians as well. Chiang Kai-Shek and Japan were tricked into making war with each other.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marco_Polo_Bridge_Incident

If Japan were smart, they would have attacked the Netherlands/UK instead of the USA. They could have seized the Dutch oil and the Brits would have gotten their asses kicked trying to fight both the German and Japanese Navy. The isolationist USA would NOT have declared war on Japan for doing this.

Re: Stalemate
 

[ QUOTE ]
The isolationist USA would NOT have declared war on Japan for doing this.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think that FDR would have figured out a way to get us into that war.

Re: Stalemate
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think that FDR would have figured out a way to get us into that war.

[/ QUOTE ]
He was trying his best....
He secretly ordered Admiral King to atack German subs in the Atlantic. Hitler bit his tongue and did not declare war for months at these provacations but when Japan attacked the USA, Hitler decided it was time to retaliate against the USA.

Short of a direct attack on the US Navy, FDR could not get the votes for war. I doubt FDR would order US Subs to attack Japanese shipping.... By attacking German subs FDR could maintain plausible deniability by claiming the American DD were conducting anti-sub training or some other BS explantion...

Re: Stalemate
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The isolationist USA would NOT have declared war on Japan for doing this.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think that FDR would have figured out a way to get us into that war.

[/ QUOTE ]

He did!

Re: Second Sino-Japanese War
 

Here is some more fodder that is relevant, background information or antecedents if you wish:

Meiji Restoration

Sino-Japanese war of 1894-1895

Russian-Japanese War 1904-1905

-Zeno

Re: Second Sino-Japanese War
 

Paging Exsub.

Re: Second Sino-Japanese War
 

Link to Klaxon (diving horn) sound.

Re: Second Sino-Japanese War
 

I think you have to put this in the context of the grand stratigic ambitions of Japan. The Emperor was essentially trying to immitate the British Empire model. That is, he wanted a "co-prosperity shpere."

Basically conquer by force or colonization all the resources needed to drive an industrial economy and export them back to the home island. Just like the British, if this had been left unchecked by another power, it would have eventually imploded both for social and for economic reasons.

You have to understand also that the oil embargo put a serious hurting on the Japanese advance. The motivation behind Pearl Harbor was to destroy the US ability to intervene militarily in the Pacific. That failed. Yamamoto made several severe tactical and one major strategic error.
I have gamed out scenarios where I was able to "win" WWII in the Pacific as the Japanese using several alternative strategies.

I agree with posters below who say that Roosevelt would have found a way of provoking the Japanese into military action against the US. He was that shrewd. Unfortunately for them, the Japanese were also proud enough to let themselves be provoked.

In a way, though, the Japanese were kind of boxed into attacking the US. I don't know they could have avoided dragging the US into the fight given the objectives of the grand strategy.

Re: Stalemate
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So what I am asking is; what if Japan never instigated USA?

[/ QUOTE ]
The Japanese offensive would have bogged down and the war would have been an endless war of attrition. Japan's advantages were having armor (though it was crappy armor) and complete control of the seas. This allowed Japan to take the plains and coastal areas. But the deeper they went into China the more problems they had keeping their troops supplied. Chinese partisans were a huge nuisance. When Japan's oil ran out because of the oil embargo (UK, USA, Netherlands) then Japan would have lost its advantage with regard to having armored forces.

China had an overwhelming reserve of mnapower. In a war of attrition, Japan is forced to make peace. At best Japan might be able to create another puppet state in Shanxi. Also keep in mind that the Chinese Communist were NOT using their full armies against Japan. Their strategy was to let the Nationalists do the heavy lifting and once Japan gave up....resume the civil war against the nationalist that had been bled white against the Japanese. The communists were getting their ass kicked by the Nationalists. The Marco Polo Bridge inicident is what saved them. Quite a few historians believe it was the Communists the attacked the Japanese at the Marco Polo bridge to start this war. And I agree with these historians as well. Chiang Kai-Shek and Japan were tricked into making war with each other.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marco_Polo_Bridge_Incident

If Japan were smart, they would have attacked the Netherlands/UK instead of the USA. They could have seized the Dutch oil and the Brits would have gotten their asses kicked trying to fight both the German and Japanese Navy. The isolationist USA would NOT have declared war on Japan for doing this.

[/ QUOTE ]

The politically prudent thing to do would be to divide up the country with the communists. The nationalists would have been stuck in the middle and hammered into oblivion. The Japanese would get to keep the cost and exploit the resources they wanted.

As for attacking the Dutch and UK, I think FDR would have lend/leased the entire Pacific fleet to Britain complete with crews for the ships.