What is going on in the copper market??
 

somebody here has to be a trader on the floor or the front lines...if so, i'd really love to know what the beat is on the copper market.

from the FT:

[ QUOTE ]
Copper rose 1.3 per cent to $8,020 a tonne, with fundamental support from threatened strike action in Latin America and signs the London market is again being squeezed higher by a single dominant hedge fund.

[/ QUOTE ]

further, from bloomberg:

[ QUOTE ]
The foreign-exchange market ``is where the move in copper is coming from,'' said Eric Wittenauer, an industrial-metals analyst at A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc. in St. Louis. ``The weaker dollar for commodities priced in dollars is bullish across the board.''

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that last part combined with tight global conditions factor into a price boost (in addition to the FT quote mentioned above)

but the likely additional US slowdown in housing, and the possible slowdown in other int'l housing markets could hurt copper demand (and should at some points on the copper curve.


anyways, i don't have this data and would like to get a first hand account of a commodities trader to spin all this together...especially the part about how the london copper market is being squeezed by 1 hedge fund... (and how big is the london market vs. chicago or ny for copper?)


thanks,
Barron

Re: What is going on in the copper market??
 

[ QUOTE ]
but the likely additional US slowdown in housing, and the possible slowdown in other int'l housing markets could hurt copper demand


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I don't know anything specific about the copper market - but all I see out of my office window, apartment window, and my recent travels around Asia are building sites. Big building sites. Everywhere.

There's a lot more going on in the world than what's going on in The US these days.

Re: What is going on in the copper market??
 

my friend is a copper trader, i can ask him to jot down a few key points. but from our pub discussions, on a daily basis a lot has to do with if there are strikes/political leader quotes/mines opening or closing/weather problem in a producers area.

i remember one time last spring, he was saying that it was so typical that on the day that some US important bank guy made a speech that should of increased the price of copper, instead it fell becuase of workers going on strike in some mine in a small country in africa.

next time i email him ill ask him to put down a few things.

[ QUOTE ]
here's a lot more going on in the world than what's going on in The US these days.

[/ QUOTE ]

fwiw, i dont think he's ever mentioned how the demand in the US affects copper long term, only ever how china affects it.

Re: What is going on in the copper market??
 

I've been hoarding pre 1982 pennines(95% copper) for the past year.

Very thankful for doing so...........

Re: What is going on in the copper market??
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
but the likely additional US slowdown in housing, and the possible slowdown in other int'l housing markets could hurt copper demand


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know anything specific about the copper market - but all I see out of my office window, apartment window, and my recent travels around Asia are building sites. Big building sites. Everywhere.

There's a lot more going on in the world than what's going on in The US these days.

[/ QUOTE ]

US housing market still utilizes a significant % of mined copper.

i see cars driving everywhere in every country, but if the US takes a dive, the oil price could fall.

Barron

Re: What is going on in the copper market??
 

COPPER and SILVER up again today early on.........

GRAIN markets having a tremendous week........

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]:):):):)

Re: What is going on in the copper market??
 

[ QUOTE ]
my friend is a copper trader, i can ask him to jot down a few key points. but from our pub discussions, on a daily basis a lot has to do with if there are strikes/political leader quotes/mines opening or closing/weather problem in a producers area.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'd greatly appreciate a note from him. i'm sure he has to know about this hedge fund in london thing.

[ QUOTE ]


i remember one time last spring, he was saying that it was so typical that on the day that some US important bank guy made a speech that should of increased the price of copper, instead it fell becuase of workers going on strike in some mine in a small country in africa.

[/ QUOTE ]

all the more reason to probe for interesting stuff [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]


next time i email him ill ask him to put down a few things.

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks.

[ QUOTE ]


[ QUOTE ]
here's a lot more going on in the world than what's going on in The US these days.

[/ QUOTE ]

fwiw, i dont think he's ever mentioned how the demand in the US affects copper long term, only ever how china affects it.

[/ QUOTE ]

well china certainly takes the overall cake. i'm still sure though that a continuing US construction decline (which i don't think has near bottomed) would pare gains in copper.

but that is only 1 piece. as i mentioned before, real estate prices the (developed) world over are reaching fairly outlandish levels. the US is 1 market, true. but if the globe suffers a housing downturn (or some 15-25% of global GDP is subject to the downturn), copper couldn't be supported at current levels by hedge funds and demands from the developing world (the latter of which would also likely fall since the developing world is earning tons exporting to the developed world and lower deamnd would reduce exports and also likely reduce construction expansion from current levels also hampering the copper market if/when that happens)

just some thoughts as i thought the copper market looks like an interesting niche right now from those reports.

one way i would express this as a trade would be through one or many diff bets (relative value trades) along the copper curve. the general method being long spot copper short copper futures (on varying points to different degrees)

Barron