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-   -   50 Stud Hi: AA vs Ted Forrest (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=528907)

blumpkin 10-22-2007 08:33 PM

50 Stud Hi: AA vs Ted Forrest
 
4-handed 50 HORSE.

The game has been aggressive, but Ted has not been spewing chips or making absurd miraculously correct calldowns (as he is occasionally known to do). In particular, I have not seen him get out of line at any point except perhaps preflop at holdem.

So... low 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] brings in, Ted limps (?) with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], I complete next with (A4)A the 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] folds, bring-in folds, and Ted calls. I lead the betting until he raises me on 6th street. The boards are

Me: (A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img])A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Ted: (xx)Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Insta-3-bet or should I consider just calling? What's my river plan?

HOWMANY 10-22-2007 08:40 PM

Re: 50 Stud Hi: AA vs Ted Forrest
 
call and check call, b/3 if you fill

If he has two pair then hopefully our lack of extra aggression will cause him to think we have one big pair at most and value bet our hand for us on the river. If he has a draw we let him put in a bet on the river. If he has pair+draw we may not see a bet go in on the river if he doesn't improve in some way. Putting in more action puts us at risk of making a disastrous fold, I don't know if he is more likely to do it in a game that is his normal size or small like this but I don't want to fold this hand or be in a situation where I think I should have folded. He may not have gotten out of line yet in ORSE but my theory is to not [censored] with guys that are supposed to be world class at specific games when we are playing that game unless there is a very good reason to do so.

I assume this game was online?

blumpkin 10-22-2007 08:57 PM

Re: 50 Stud Hi: AA vs Ted Forrest
 
[ QUOTE ]
I assume this game was online?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, FTP.

Micturition Man 10-23-2007 12:37 AM

Re: 50 Stud Hi: AA vs Ted Forrest
 
Feels a lot like (JT)Q to me.

Ted likes to slowplay which makes QQQ possible but I think most people would raise 4th with roll-ups to represent QJT or just raise 5th to represent two pair.

Buried AA is also possible.

I think he would tend to complete or fold buried TT but I guess that's possible too.

I think I would 3-bet because I feel a check behind coming on 7th but going passive seems reasonable too.

I also think a huge laydown on the river is possible depending on what happens after you 3-bet 6th.

Sevenfold 10-23-2007 01:29 AM

Re: 50 Stud Hi: AA vs Ted Forrest
 
[ QUOTE ]
I have not seen him get out of line at any point except perhaps preflop at holdem.



[/ QUOTE ]

This is key for me.

If he had/made a set, he waited for you to blank on hearts and aces to raise.

Were the Kc Jc 8c clean?


I hate check/calling, but I'd do that here.

Andy B 10-23-2007 03:17 AM

Re: 50 Stud Hi: AA vs Ted Forrest
 
It seems like every time someone raises me with a board like that, he's got a straight. Of course, I've never played against Ted Forrest. I'd go into call-down mode here. This saves money when you're losing and doesn't cost you all that much when you're winning. I'd also go into praying-for-an-Ace mode.

SGspecial 10-23-2007 09:30 AM

Re: 50 Stud Hi: AA vs Ted Forrest
 
[ QUOTE ]
Feels a lot like (JT)Q to me.

Ted likes to slowplay which makes QQQ possible but I think most people would raise 4th with roll-ups to represent QJT or just raise 5th to represent two pair.

Buried AA is also possible.

I think he would tend to complete or fold buried TT but I guess that's possible too.

I think I would 3-bet because I feel a check behind coming on 7th but going passive seems reasonable too.

I also think a huge laydown on the river is possible depending on what happens after you 3-bet 6th.

[/ QUOTE ]
I would think his range on 3rd is a lot narrower than this (buried AA??) If he's got rolled Q's, then here have my money Ted just give me a chance to win it back. It's an aggro 4-handed game and I'm sure he expected blumpkin to complete with the A door card 100% of the time if he limps. I think a 3-card broadway hand would complete 3rd every time in his spot (tho I don't play stud with these guys or at this level). I think QJ and QT are the most likely hole cards, both of which you are currently beating. Problem is given your board a 3-bet on 6th turns over your hand (or at least he will put you on most likely A's up) and allows him to play perfectly against you. Don't give the guy with the Ted Forrest mask any advantage.

p.s. Ted's FTP handle = ??

PoorLawyer 10-23-2007 10:49 AM

Re: 50 Stud Hi: AA vs Ted Forrest
 
I think I like HOWWMANY's line here, and I think its what I would do in the heat of battle, but it could be based on the stakes (for me) and the opponent.

Would he ever really limp with TTQ or 99Q though? I think rolled is certainly a possibility as a limp and 6th street raise would be fairly standard. If he is on a draw+pr you win the same amount by calling as you would have if you just bet 6th and 7th, even if he checks behind on the river;
BUT, I think you should actually be raising because you should be ahead of his range. You are behind to a slowplayed QQQ or had 99Q or TTQ or JcKcQc, but the last 3 hands seem very odd not to raise on 3rd in an aggressive game...SOOOO, that pair+draw, maybe 9cTc that made 2 pair, or maybe even dry aces seems more likely to me. Even if he has something like TcJc down you are a 2 to 1 fave to win the hand. I've never played with him but it seems twice as likely he has one of the hands you are ahead of than he limped with a hand that is crushing you. If you are behind there are always aces and fours floating around too...

That being said, of the online players I would like to squeeze an extra bet out of, Ted Forrest may not be the best choice, especially if he has been playing pretty solid and not donking around at these "low" stakes. I don't want to pay off a big hand here any more than I have to and the proposition of getting capped is very unappealing and costly.

blumpkin 10-23-2007 11:15 AM

Re: 50 Stud Hi: AA vs Ted Forrest
 
[ QUOTE ]
p.s. Ted's FTP handle = ??

[/ QUOTE ]

profbackwards

Micturition Man 10-23-2007 08:32 PM

Re: 50 Stud Hi: AA vs Ted Forrest
 

I didn't catch it was 4-handed, just assumed ring.

I now think he's rolled up actually. He would make that ridiculously obvious a play imo, and I think he would just open-complete any weaker holding.


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