Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
 

I would have to call here, the F/H possibility is scary, but I can see this move being made with less then that, and you've got the right odds to call.

Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
 

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Bet/fold is probably right, but I doubt I can do it.

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even I can't do it

Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
 

It's a call as played.

I also think you're going to see A8 or AK a lot more than FHs. but maybe it'd be better to make a smaller river bet so you can get away from it if you need to. maybe 1/2 pot of 4k or 5k?

Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
 

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C/C >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> Bet/Fold

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disagreeeee

u lose a lot of valueeeee

Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
 

u cant fold, pray and call obv.

Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
 

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Bet/fold is probably right, but I doubt I can do it.

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Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
 

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Value Raising Range: 8x/88/99/JJ/KK; Possibly AK/KQ/KJ/AA

How often is he bluffing? Pretty much never.

Ok, so how many 8x hands are in his range? Well, you beat 87/86/85/8T/8A. I think a lot of players will fold all of those hands to a raise, so I would say the 8x hands should be heavily discounted from his range.

How likely is he to be overvaluing AK/KQ/KJ/AA? I don't think it's very likely that he's shoving w/ 1 pair of kings, that's a pretty bad play that I don't think a lot of players will do, so unless you have a read that he's terrible and/or overplays hands, I would discount these hands from his range as well.

His line fits 88/99/JJ pretty well, KK is somewhat less likely because of the flatcall preflop.

You're getting ~4 to 1. So does he show up w/ a worse hand 20% of the time? I don't think he does.

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Nice post. I think villains do show up with a worse hand 20%+ of the time and I think that villains have some of the hands that you discounted. If hero folded this, I would guess he feels that this villain does not and that seems reasonable to me. Villain has called off 10% of his stack pre-flop and then called a one thing or the other flop when he hasn't before, so he has something.

However, the reason why I think, that even for this villain, we really have to call is because while villain may have to bad to value push a naked king on this board, I think that's fairly common 'bad' (no idea about FTP). If villain has AK, and he's trapping the lag by calling OTB and see's this flop, all that's in his mind is setting this trap. He calls on the flop, because there is no value raising, checks behind on turn because he wants hero to bet the river and when hero does bet, he pushes.

Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
 

EVG,
Our line looks crazy weak so we get money from all kinds of crap that checks behind if we bet.

Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
EVG,
Our line looks crazy weak so we get money from all kinds of crap that checks behind if we bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously, checking the river is not optimal under normal circumstances but if hero has been c-betting villain off pots, has shown down weakish hands elsewhere etc. etc. to the extent that he feels that he's check folding anything other than a runnered straight here and folds a runnered straight to a push, then check call may be better than bet/ fold. Personally, I wouldn't think this deeply about it. If I've put villain on K or better after the flop, then I just get it in with my straight and berate myself for being a dumb mf. But I think that if we can really consider bet/folding a pot this large, we should at least consider check-calling. And I diagree that villain checks behind very often on the river with anything he's gone this far with very often. I probably check-raise though if I take this line so I'm toast either way.

Re: going into check/fold mode then hitting your hand
 

Gboro i disagree that he might never value shove a K or a two pair type hand like KJ, though a more specific read might be more helpful in eliminating some of his range.

The line you've taken is a fairly stereotypical aggressive player "cont betting flop, giving up on turn checking, then after villain checks behind give one more round cause he looks weak."

I think you definately have a call here, and i think you definately need to fire this river because you'll often get calls from a fairly wide range of hands that would check behind on this river if you check.