Simple Expected Value Question - which is correct
 

Situation: AA versus a flush draw in $30-$60 limit hold em with one card left to go $400 in the pot.

9 cards give the flush draw the nuts.

For this case let us assume that the flush draw will call any bet (not raise or fold).

What is the expected value for AA if he bets $60 - equation 1 or 2?

1. EV = (35/44)*(400+60+60) - (9/44)*(60) = $401
2. EV = (35/44)*(400+60+60) - 60 = $353

I think that answer is 1. If 2 is correct please elaborate.

Thanks.

Re: Simple Expected Value Question - which is correct
 

[ QUOTE ]
Situation: AA versus a flush draw in $30-$60 limit hold em with one card left to go $400 in the pot.

9 cards give the flush draw the nuts.

For this case let us assume that the flush draw will call any bet (not raise or fold).

What is the expected value for AA if he bets $60 - equation 1 or 2?

1. EV = (35/44)*(400+60+60) - (9/44)*(60) = $401
2. EV = (35/44)*(400+60+60) - 60 = $353

I think that answer is 1. If 2 is correct please elaborate.

Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]
2 gives the correct expectation value: you put an additional $60 in the pot to get a 35/44 chance of winning twice that amount plus what was already in the pot.

Eq. 2 can also be re-written:

2. EV = (35/44)*(400+60) - (9/44)*(60) = $353

which is perhaps more intuitive?

Re: Simple Expected Value Question - which is correct
 

IOW, don't include your own bet in your expectation.