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-   -   I know I'm beat... I call?!? (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=555377)

WarDekar 11-27-2007 05:59 AM

Re: I know I\'m beat... I call?!?
 
[ QUOTE ]
If you play volume online, keep a log of these situations over a week or so and then review it.

The issue is how many of the times our 'gut' is actually correct, rather than just memorably correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was basically my point, I mean... Yeah I think I'm beat a ton of times and end up calling anyway, and it's always to varying degrees.

The thing is, most the time we're getting very good pot odds to call, don't need to win that often anyway, and if you actually looked at all these spots I'm not really sure how it would end up working out. It may be -EV, but I don't think it's nearly as -EV as you think, other than the OBVIOUS "I HAVE TO [censored] FOLD THIS GOD DAMNIT"

d2themfi 11-27-2007 06:33 AM

Re: I know I\'m beat... I call?!?
 
To the Op, this is something that i struggle a lot with. Making calls on the river(or all in calls on earlier streets) that realistically have no shot of winning is def my biggest source of spew and generally happens when I am running bad or am pissed cause the exact card I said I was gonna c/f to hits, and then for some reason I call anyways.

Ive been thinking more about this, and how to combat it cause it has become a huge problem for me, and I think the best way is just to constantly remind myself to play my A game at all times, and that my goal as a poker player is to maximize my EV at all times, even if that means an EV of 0 by folding.

In hands like the scotty nguyen hand, it is probably right to fold that river (without taking into consideration how folding there would be exploitable) Yet I knw if somehow the same situation happened to me Id proly give it a "crying call" Anyways, Im glad that I can recognize that this is a huge huge leak for myself that I have developed, but changing it can definitely be very hard to do. But I think the key is to stay disciplined and realize that I cant control the cards that come or my opponents actions, all I can control is my response to the cards and my opponents

d2themfi 11-27-2007 06:47 AM

Re: I know I\'m beat... I call?!?
 
heh took me a while to find this, not even sure if this is allowed to post this link from hsnl, but this is basically what i was alluding to.
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...part=1&vc=1

MaverickUSC 11-27-2007 07:07 AM

Re: I know I\'m beat... I call?!?
 
I actually think we could figure out the math on this. Make a note of every time we have that feeling, or for me "the voice" telling me to fold, what are our results? If we flag those hand histories I bet over a month or so we get at least an idea of how often we call in those crappy spots and are right.

I feel like we would see a number around 10% us being correct with average pot odds of 3.5-1. Seeing this in plain numbers would help me fold thats for sure.

BarryLyndon 11-27-2007 01:28 PM

Re: I know I\'m beat... I call?!?
 
[ QUOTE ]
I love when hands like that fold, as I am getting ready to make a crying call I life my two cards inbetween my right index finger and middle finger while using my left hand to throw in the chips attempting to instafold when they table thier hand. Then I move on and laugh at how bad they are regardless of them winning the hand

[/ QUOTE ]

What the hell is this?

Eagles 11-27-2007 01:38 PM

Re: I know I\'m beat... I call?!?
 
Jordan,
I agree. There are a lot of spots where I see people on the forum advocate going broke based on hand strength. Often times what needs to be considered is that there are some general "rules" people will make i.e. don't fold sets, don't fold KK pf etc... so they will never make these laydowns even though there certainly are spots were it is correct. As a result you often see hands posted where good players ask about making tough folds and the response is typically LOL YOU HAVE xyz CALLLLLLLLLL. Anyways the point I'm making is although its difficult there certainly are spots you can fold very strong hands to certain opponents although typically not good ones.

Now I think Bond's hand is a bad example because we call the river not really expecting to be good very often. Its just we need to be good enough of the time. So even though Scotty has us beat a lot we might be good 1/8 times or w/e making a call good. However when we make this call we do so knowing we will have the best hand 1/8 times or w/e so most of the time calling we will be disappointed but that does not mean the call is bad.

LuckyLloyd 11-27-2007 01:49 PM

Re: I know I\'m beat... I call?!?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I love when hands like that fold, as I am getting ready to make a crying call I life my two cards inbetween my right index finger and middle finger while using my left hand to throw in the chips attempting to instafold when they table thier hand. Then I move on and laugh at how bad they are regardless of them winning the hand

[/ QUOTE ]

What the hell is this?

[/ QUOTE ]

Deebish.

Todd Terry 11-27-2007 02:08 PM

Re: I know I\'m beat... I call?!?
 
This is an area where I think my results have gotten worse as my analysis has gotten better. When I first started playing, unless I was getting laid a ridiculous price, I basically played under the rule, if I think I'm beat, I fold. When I called in violation of that rule, I was usually shown a winner. Now, I attempt to quantify the strength of my belief I'm beat, and if it's less than the pot odds, make a crying call. It seems like I invariably get shown a winner. IMO, there's a balance to be struck between trusting your "instincts" (which I try to base on objective evidence rather than "feelings") while at the same time realizing that you're probably not right as often as you think you are and allowing this margin of error to influene your decisions to call on the river. The correct balance is somewhere between Phil Hellmuth and Daniel Negreanu.

I agree with Eagles that there seems to be an overemphasis on absolute rather than relative hand strength in many of the hands discussed on this form.

betgo 11-27-2007 02:44 PM

Re: I know I\'m beat... I call?!?
 
In the thread you reference, you only have to be good 18% of the time for the call to be cEV+.

ZeeJustin 11-27-2007 02:47 PM

Re: I know I\'m beat... I call?!?
 
Fold.


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