pca step 2 question
 

ok so this is a hand from the pca step 2 on stars. i think this is the most obvious decision in the world, but my friend disagrees with me. here is the situation

3 handed $27 step 2, top 2 get $60 whatever step 3 entry, 3rd place gets a retry at step 2.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (3 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero (t5380)
Button (t3590)
SB (t4530)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t600</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ...

Re: pca step 2 question
 

Tell me your friend doesn't think you should pass on a freeroll and fold here! I push this all day and twice on Sundays.

Re: pca step 2 question
 

FWIW step 3 is $87 and these 1st two levels are rediculously soft.

I push here against 99% of known players and certainly all unknowns.

Re: pca step 2 question
 

[ QUOTE ]
Tell me your friend doesn't think you should pass on a freeroll and fold here! I push this all day and twice on Sundays.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I do say fold here. From my perspective the BB on the big stack has more equity in the prize awarded for first and second place by folding here than by trying to bust this guy out for 3/5ths of his stack in a probably coinflip, or at best being somewhere about a 70% favorite vs one overcard or an 80% favorite over an even less-likely underpair.

I dunno, I figured that as the chipleader there are better opportunities to get your money in that don't involve risking your equity in first or second place. Personally I think I play good enough to wait for a better spot and try to chip away at the smaller stacks a bit more before trying to knock them out.

Re: pca step 2 question
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Tell me your friend doesn't think you should pass on a freeroll and fold here! I push this all day and twice on Sundays.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I do say fold here. From my perspective the BB on the big stack has more equity in the prize awarded for first and second place by folding here than by trying to bust this guy out for 3/5ths of his stack in a probably coinflip, or at best being somewhere about a 70% favorite vs one overcard or an 80% favorite over an even less-likely underpair.

I dunno, I figured that as the chipleader there are better opportunities to get your money in that don't involve risking your equity in first or second place. Personally I think I play good enough to wait for a better spot and try to chip away at the smaller stacks a bit more before trying to knock them out.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the worst post I have seen in a strategy forum in months. Sorry, but it's true.

This is the easiest shove ever. It's even easier bc its basically a freeroll.

You are miles ahead of his raising range.

You have fold equity.

ITS A FREEROLL.

If you feel like you bubble pretty frequently it's probably because you aren't doing things like shoving mid-high pocket pairs 3 handed with fold equity.

Post less, read more.

P.S.- If 3rd place was sentenced to death, I would still shove this hand.

Re: pca step 2 question
 

bump for vindication

Re: pca step 2 question
 

It's a push, but Jesus Christ, it's NOT a freeroll. You have about $67-68 in equity prior to the hand and if you lose, it drops to about $45. If you have to retry Step 2, you don't get to start with three players left and 5380 chips. It's not a freeroll.

You're never losing equity pushing here unless button's the biggest nit ever, but you're almost never increasing equity more than 1.0%.

Re: pca step 2 question
 

&lt;----- never said it was a freeroll, saying there is one and only one play that can even be considered here.

Re: pca step 2 question
 

It was really the other people who were saying it was a freeroll that I was getting on FWIW. In all seriousness, though, otherwise decent players make equity mistakes bigger than 1.0% all the time, especially on the bubble in payout formats they're not used to, so a fold here would not be completely stupid as some were saying, just a small mistake.

Reads are key here. If the button's only opening 15% here, shoving 99 starts getting problematic. Are we saying no one's ever this tight?

Re: pca step 2 question
 

I would push with 55 here, as well. I did just that in a similar situation in a stage 2 and got called by K9 sooted. They got there, but I get to replay the stage 2.

Re: pca step 2 question
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's a push, but Jesus Christ, it's NOT a freeroll.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's as close as you can get.

[ QUOTE ]
You have about $67-68 in equity prior to the hand and if you lose, it drops to about $45. If you have to retry Step 2, you don't get to start with three players left and 5380 chips. It's not a freeroll.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, thanks for your pedantry. It doesn't help any but god forbid we should get away with using the word "freeroll" loosely.

The bottom line is, this is a rock-solid push, with much less to lose than you usually have in an STT. You can't even go broke.

[ QUOTE ]
You're never losing equity pushing here unless button's the biggest nit ever, but you're almost never increasing equity more than 1.0%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does that mean do it or fold? I couldn't really figure out from your post whether you agree it's a good push or whether you think increasing your equity 1% is just not worth bothering with.

Re: pca step 2 question
 

[ QUOTE ]
It was really the other people who were saying it was a freeroll that I was getting on FWIW. In all seriousness, though, otherwise decent players make equity mistakes bigger than 1.0% all the time, especially on the bubble in payout formats they're not used to, so a fold here would not be completely stupid as some were saying, just a small mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

How many mistakes do you think you can make?

[ QUOTE ]
Reads are key here. If the button's only opening 15% here, shoving 99 starts getting problematic. Are we saying no one's ever this tight?

[/ QUOTE ]

We are beating 15%.

Re: pca step 2 question
 

Fantastic cherry-picking the post. I thought I was pretty clear. A read clearly helps here. If button is tight, a push is not prudent. If opponent raises 15% and calls all shoves, you get a 0.01% equity boost. If he raises 15% and calls 12%, you lose equity by pushing. If button raises 40% and just calls 8% of pushes, your equity boost is 1.05%. Since OP didn't give a read, I don't know how you're supposed to be so rock-solid in your evaluation. Feel free to run the numbers...I actually did.

With no read, sure, a push is MOST LIKELY RIGHT, just like I said above. But, definitely not "OMG, your friend's a moron for considering a fold!" right.

And, yeah, your's and others' definition of a freeroll is totally wrong. Sorry if it came off pedantic.

Re: pca step 2 question
 

[ QUOTE ]
Fantastic cherry-picking the post. I thought I was pretty clear. A read clearly helps here. If button is tight, a push is not prudent. If opponent raises 15% and calls all shoves

[/ QUOTE ]

Plz.

[ QUOTE ]
you get a 0.01% equity boost. If he raises 15% and calls 12%, you lose equity by pushing.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I push and the building falls on my head, I die.

[ QUOTE ]
If button raises 40% and just calls 8% of pushes, your equity boost is 1.05%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Poooooooooosh.

[ QUOTE ]
Since OP didn't give a read, I don't know how you're supposed to be so rock-solid in your evaluation.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't assume unknowns are Tighty McTight.

[ QUOTE ]
Feel free to run the numbers...I actually did.

[/ QUOTE ]

Try running some that are even a little bit realistic.

[ QUOTE ]
With no read, sure, a push is MOST LIKELY RIGHT, just like I said above. But, definitely not "OMG, your friend's a moron for considering a fold!" right.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. You can't bust out, but recover some of your equity if you lose all your chips. You have a hand that beats his range. You also have him covered. You can only lose equity to a very very tight range. Easy call.

[ QUOTE ]
And, yeah, your's and others' definition of a freeroll is totally wrong. Sorry if it came off pedantic.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whatever.

Re: pca step 2 question
 

LOL at assuming unknown with a player he's played an hour plus with. I gave both sides of the argument with math. I didn't commit to either. His friend isn't stupid. What part of this do you disagree with?

And, again, your definition of a freeroll is horrible. Please attempt to justify it.

Also, nice blog.

Re: pca step 2 question
 

[ QUOTE ]
bump for vindication

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me remind you that you lost that hand and soon after busted out in third. I'm sure if everyone knew how you play and the situation as closely as I do, they would advocate folding there (or at least just calling and taking a flop) rather than putting yourself in a position to lose, which you did. IMO, the 'freeroll' play would have been folding and using my big stack to get me into first or second place, not gambling and going out third.

I'm sorry, but if I'm chip leader and it's down to three players and first and second get the same prize, I feel that I play good enough to fold here and find a better spot later, preferably not involving me as the two other remaining players tangle for what's left of their stacks.

Remember, we're talking about a satellite tournament here where for our purposes, third gets nothing because jme1222 has gotten so many thirds in these PCA tournaments that he spends more time playing step 2 than actually making some money playing his regular games.

Re: pca step 2 question
 

This is why you're a newbie

Re: pca step 2 question
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is why you're a newbie

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, if an experienced player's response to playing against a newbie is to gamble and risk not getting a prize at all in favor of style points, then yes, I am a newbie.

Can someone come up with a serious response about why it makes sense to gamble your shot at getting a prize in a spot where you're not being forced to gamble?

Re: pca step 2 question
 

taking a massively +ev opportunity to increase our stack/end the tournament is not really "gambling"

god mike, this is awful

you are better off at p5's

Re: pca step 2 question
 

You are acting like you have enough of a chip lead to coast into the top 2 spots. This is not the case. It's not like this is a satellite situation where there are 11 people left and the top 10 place. There are 3 people and top 2 place and your chip lead is anything but commanding. Are you just going to fold unless you get AA/KK/QQ (not even sure if you'd play these hands) and hope the other guy busts the shortstack? You are going to find yourself getting blinded into being the shortstack a good % of the time. If you are finding yourself bubbling a lot of tourneys, this might have something to do with it.

Re: pca step 2 question
 

[ QUOTE ]
You are acting like you have enough of a chip lead to coast into the top 2 spots. This is not the case. It's not like this is a satellite situation where there are 11 people left and the top 10 place. There are 3 people and top 2 place and your chip lead is anything but commanding. Are you just going to fold unless you get AA/KK/QQ (not even sure if you'd play these hands) and hope the other guy busts the shortstack? You are going to find yourself getting blinded into being the shortstack a good % of the time. If you are finding yourself bubbling a lot of tourneys, this might have something to do with it.

[/ QUOTE ]

First, I'm not planning on using my chip position to creep into the top two spots. I'm planning on using my chip position to pick up uncontested pots and to push around the other players. I'm comfortable folding a strong hand pre-flop in this spot because I think I have more to gain by waiting for a better spot, it's not like the button limped, he opened with a huge overbet (despite the description above, I believe the button opened for T1500.) The blinds are still pretty low, jme's M before the hand started was just below 18, losing this pot brings his M down to 6 and puts him in a spot where he will now have to get lucky to win as the short stack. Considering that the play is now shorthanded, jme's situation is a little more dire, but I still don't think he's in such bad shape that he has not choice but to shove here. Even if the guy did only open for 3x the BB, I still don't know if I want to risk crippling myself to knock this player out in a spot where I'm most likely coin flipping, though not so likely to be dominated or have him dominating me. I think the way the actual hand played out jme was somewhere in the 70% favorite range. I don't know about you, but I've lost quite a few hands where I was a 70% favorite. Not that I don't take those shots when I need to, but when 2nd gets a prize and 3rd does not, I have to reconsider my strategy.

I just don't understand how a good player who thinks they have an edge over the other remaining players would want to put themselves in a situation where they could get unlucky and blow the whole tournament. I would go all-in if this was a normal tournament and I was playing for first place, but in this situation I am playing for second, which changes everything.

After losing that hand I don't have enough chips to play poker, I just have to find spots to move all my chips in, which is not a position I'm really comfortable being in when there are 3 players left and 2 get paid.

The benefit of knocking out this guy third at the risk of becoming the short stack just does not seem like a wise move to me. I'd rather let those other guys try and knock each other out while I focus on maintaining the lead while waiting for a better spot to try knocking one of the other two players out myself.

Re: pca step 2 question
 

Including your fold equity you are probably something like 70% against his range. It's not a close decision.

Go ahead and rewrite the book on poker.

/thread

Re: pca step 2 question
 

[ QUOTE ]
LOL at assuming unknown with a player he's played an hour plus with.

[/ QUOTE ]


His reads?

[ QUOTE ]
I gave both sides of the argument with math. I didn't commit to either. His friend isn't stupid. What part of this do you disagree with?

[/ QUOTE ]

The last bit. This is an easy shove.

[ QUOTE ]
And, again, your definition of a freeroll is horrible. Please attempt to justify it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm done with justifying it. You take yourself too seriously.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, nice blog.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks. Feel free to rip me apart there too [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: pca step 2 question
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You are acting like you have enough of a chip lead to coast into the top 2 spots. This is not the case. It's not like this is a satellite situation where there are 11 people left and the top 10 place. There are 3 people and top 2 place and your chip lead is anything but commanding. Are you just going to fold unless you get AA/KK/QQ (not even sure if you'd play these hands) and hope the other guy busts the shortstack? You are going to find yourself getting blinded into being the shortstack a good % of the time. If you are finding yourself bubbling a lot of tourneys, this might have something to do with it.

[/ QUOTE ]

First, I'm not planning on using my chip position to creep into the top two spots. I'm planning on using my chip position to pick up uncontested pots and to push around the other players. I'm comfortable folding a strong hand pre-flop in this spot because I think I have more to gain by waiting for a better spot

[/ QUOTE ]

Good luck with that approach.

Re: pca step 2 question
 

[ QUOTE ]
Including your fold equity you are probably something like 70% against his range. It's not a close decision.

Go ahead and rewrite the book on poker.

/thread

[/ QUOTE ]

Assume your "70% with FE" is correct. Let's see... push and win a pot that gives you a *little* bit better chance at finishing top 2 70% of the time and screws you over badly 30% of the time, or be safe and 100% of the time maintain your position as chip leader where you have OVER a 70% chance of finishing top 2 as it stands... hrmmmm...

Let's also consider that FE isn't as big of a deal here as you might first think because a lot of coinflip hands he will still call you with (you don't want to play a coinflip here either) and you certainly aren't going to make him fold hands that have you beat badly. Again, I also don't think that winning this pot is going to significantly help you finish top 2 enough to justify the risk you take on.

You aren't going to get called very often by the hands that you have beat badly, because he's more likely to just open shove the pairs you have beat badly. This means that when you're called, you're usually in a coinflip or way behind.

Can you have the philosophy of "insta push here 100% of the time" and still be a winning player? Sure. But winning players make bad decisions sometimes, and this is one IMO. Pushing is wrong here.. you need a read on your opponent for pushing to be correct.

Now if you want to argue I'm wrong and want to present a solid and logical argument, fine. But the most troubling thing about your attitude/post is that you act like it's an "obvious push" when there are TONS of very good players with ROI's that are about near the theoretical limit that *do not* push in this spot.

Re: pca step 2 question
 

[ QUOTE ]

Good luck with that approach.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, but the whole point is that I don't need much luck to win with this approach. In my opinion, coin-flipping in this spot like you suggest takes a much greater deal of luck to win the tournament than by picking lower-risk spots where I will continue to accumulate chips. I'm sorry, but pushing all-in with the 99's here sounds like a play a weak player would make to get the hand over with as soon as possible, personally I'm in no hurry to end the tournament on this hand. I think most comments are coming from players who think they have more fold equity in this spot than they actually do, when I watched the hand play out I was sure the button was going to call if jme1222 pushed all-in, which he did. If you were absolutely sure that you were going to get your all-in called, would you still push?